Transcript Report on Aid and Stability in the Economic Community of West

Report on Aid and Stability in the Economic
Community of West African States (ECOWAS)
Prepared for the U.S. State Department Office of Financial Assistance
Prepared by Caitlin Fogarty, International Development Solutions
Nigeria and ECOWAS Stability
• U.S. assistance to Nigeria in 2009: $519,270,000, in
part due to the country’s role as a regional stabilizer
within it’s conflict-ridden neighborhood
• Fearon & Laitin’s civil war predictor model reveals
that it is Nigeria, rather than its dependent
neighbors, that is the most likely to break out into
civil war
• In light of this, the U.S. government should not focus
foreign assistance in the region so heavily on Nigeria,
but should increase funding to other ECOWAS states
Civil War Predictor Variables: Economic Community of West African States
ECOWAS Country
2009 GNI per capita (PPP)
Population (in millions)
Oil Exports (in BBL/day)
Benin
$1,510
9.8
8,770
Burkina Faso
$1,170
16.2
0
Cape Verde
$3,530
0.5
0
Cote d’Ivoire
$1,640
22.0
115,700
Ghana
$1,480
24.0
4,843
Guinea
$940
10.8
0
Guinea Bissau
$1,060
1.6
0
The Gambia
$1,330
1.8
42
$290
4.1
23
Mali
$1,190
15.2
0
Mauritania
$1,960
3.4
30,620
$660
15.9
0
Nigeria
$1,980
158.3
2,327,000
Senegal
$1,790
12.5
5,653
Sierra Leone
$790
5.8
502
Togo
$850
6.8
1,547
Liberia
Niger
Nigeria and Civil War
• Low per capita income: $1,980
• High population: 158.3 million people
– most populous country in Africa; 8th in the world
• High oil exports: 2,327,000 bbl/day,
– 95% of total exports; 7th largest exporter in the world
What would a Nigerian civil war mean for West
Africa?
• Civil war in Nigeria, the regional giant, could lead to
increased destabilization in the already volatile West
African region
Policy Recommendations
•The U.S. government should continue to provide high
levels of aid to Nigeria. Aid may serve to increase per capita
income and thus slightly decrease the probability of civil
war in the country
•The United States should not continue to focus funding on
Nigeria based on the belief that Nigeria will hold the region
together
• In order to soften the regional effects of a possible
Nigerian civil war, the United States should increase funding
to other members of ECOWAS, especially within the
governance and conflict management programs, in order to
decrease their dependence on Nigeria for stability
FY 2009 Estimate of U.S. Foreign Assistance to West Africa:
Ranking of Countries from Most to Least Assistance
$519,270,000
Nigeria
$189,980,000
Liberia
$101,280,000
Cote d’Ivoire
$90,395,000
Ghana
$77,080,000
Mali
$70,912,000
Senegal
$30,900,000
Benin
$19,870,000
Burkina Faso
$19,750,000
Sierra Leone
$16,123,000
Niger
$13,461,000
Guinea
$5,520,000
Mauritania
$600,000
Cape Verde
$200,000
Guinea Bissau
$130,000
Togo
The Gambia
$120,000