Transcript Mahmoud Elsheik (ALA)

Dr Mahmoud El Sheikh Ali
World GOOS REGIONS
Euro
GOOS Black Sea
NEARGOOS
GOOS
MedGOOS
GOOSSEA
AFRIC
GOOS
A
PI-GOOS
IO
WA
GOOS GOOS
US GOOS
IOCARIB
GOOS
G
R
A
S
P
Euro
GOOS
AF
MedGOOS
Mediterranean Global Ocean Observing System
A regional initiative for operational oceanography
What is MedGOOS ?
Brief history of MedGOOS
The first MedGOOS project
RTD Projects Related to MedGOOS
The strength of a regional partnership
The expected long-term results
Benefits of MedGOOS
MedGOOS
Mediterranean Global Ocean Observing System
History
Informal association founded in 1999 under the auspices of the UNESCO
Intergovernmental Oceanographic Commission (IOC) to provide a concerted
approach to the development of an operational ocean observing and
forecasting system at a regional and coastal scale to the benefit of a wide group
of users in the region.
Founded in 1999 and the joined membership already covers most of the riparian
countries with a total of 19 members from 16 countries.
MedGOOS members play a leading role as a competent entity for the promotion
of GOOS in their country.
Each member acts as a national focal point, establishing links with the scientific
community and the public authorities, developing awareness activities to
enable the implementation of MedGOOS and the future projection into long
term commitments.
Created the first project MAMA (Mediterranean network to Assess and upgrade
Monitoring and forecasting Activity in the region.
MedGOOS Benefit
Capability to make informed decisions based on the knowledge of
the causes and consequences of changes
Effective and sustainable management of the marine environment
in favour of fisheries, safe and efficient transportation, coastal
recreation and other marine-related industries that contribute
a large part of the total GNP for the bordering countries;
Support of economies and for improving standards of living on the
basis of enhanced marine services;
Mitigation of marine hazards, with improved search and rescue
operations, and in ensuring public health;
Detection and forecasting of the oceanic components of climate
variability due to human activity;
Quest to preserve and restore healthy marine ecosystems.
More specific benefits apply to the Mediterranean fisheries.
MAMA is the first MedGOOS project
MAMA Objectives:
Build the basin-wide network for ocean monitoring and forecasting
linking all the Mediterranean countries
Identify the gaps in the monitoring systems in the region and in the
capability to measure, model and forecast the ecosystem
Integrate the knowledge base derived by relevant national and
international RTD projects and programmes
Build capacities in ocean monitoring and forecasting
Design the initial observing and forecasting system, on the basis of
a coordinated upgrading of capabilities in all Mediterranean countries
Raise awareness on the benefits of MedGOOS at local, regional and
global scales; for operational oceanography at the service of
sustainable development.
Principal Novelties
Broadening the existing network by the
experience of EuroGOOS and MedGOOS
Setting up the logistics for the future ocean
and coastal monitoring, modeling and
forecasting operational system
Establishing the first network of all
Mediterranean countries
Integrating the knowledge base derived by
national and EU RTD projects
Providing the framework for full geographical
coverage of observation in the basin
Producing a web-based demonstration
application of the benefits of ocean observations
and forecasting, coastal erosion protection
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MAMA
Mediterranean network to Assess and upgrade the
Monitoring and forecasting Activity in the region
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WP1
WP2
WP3
WP4
WP5
WP6
WP7
WP8
MAMA NOW
MAMA OBSERVING SYSTEM
MAMA CAPACITY BUILDING
MAMA MODEL
MAMA-NET
MAMA WWW
MAMA AWARENESS
MAMA DISSEMINATION & PRODUCTS
MAMA WPs
WP1
MAMA NOW – Inventorying and assessment of current national operational
oceanographic activities, infrastructures and resources in the Mediterranaen.
WP2
MAMA OBSERVING SYSTEM – Design of the real-time coastal data acquisition
systems, fully integrated to the basin scale observing system.
WP3
MAMA CAPACITY BUILDING - Enhance in each country the basic technical and
scientific expertise required to participate in MedGOOS.
WP4
WP5
WP6
WP7
WP8
MAMA MODEL – Transfer of know-how and modelling experiences to
partners by dedicated model implementations in new shelf areas.
MAMA-NET – Design and test elements for inter-agency networking
and for the exchange of data and information. Provide guidelines for a regional
marine information system.
MAMA WWW - Establish the MAMA WWW as a reference point and
showcase for operational oceanography in the Mediterranean.
MAMA AWARENESS – Undertake an awareness campaign on
MedGOOS addressing governmental agencies and authorities, policy-makers,
the marine scientific community, marine industries, the services sector, and the
public at large.
MAMA DISSEMINATION & PRODUCTS – Promote the use and potential of addedvalue applications of routine data for the management of marine resources.
Expected Long Term Results
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Strengthen the co-operation of all the Med countries for the interest of
development
Upgrade the technical and scientific skills, and quantity of human resources
Enhance the basin wide monitoring and forecasting capabilities for coastal
and shelf area management, based on the successful experience of the EU
projects as MFSPP
Establish the platform for the Med operational interagency exchange,
merging data and information, to produce added value oceanographic
information, and the delivery of user-oriented products in an operational
and interacted mode
Maximize the use of products and exploit opportunities deriving from
operational ocean forecasting, by marine and environment authorities,
policy makers, and stakeholders in general
MAMA Benefits
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Gain knowledge and understand ocean’s system.
Improve navigaton system to exploit oceans.
Observe the sea from space.
Improve the global progress in Operational
Oceanography’, “O O” by long-term routine
systematic measurements.
Use the technology for rapid information,
interpretation and dissemination.
Providing continuous forecasting status to the sea.
Keep recorded DB for the status of the sea.
Provide warnings system. eg. coastal floods, storm
impacts, earthquake.
Watching ocean climate variability, etc.
MAMA Priorities
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Network Institution in all Med countries
Define the present capabilities
Raise awareness
Capacity building of technical and scientific capabilities
Pilot exercise to network existing monitoring systems
Design of the initial observing system
Design the initial forecasting system downscaled to the coastyal area
Disseminate products and results
MAMA in Palestine Discussion
Combined map of depth and sea bed
Ocean ecosystem dynamics strongly coupled with
Ocean dynamics
Factors limiting predictability:
Data
Predictability of the atmospheric forcing (coastal areas).
Predictability of external inputs (River runoff and
nutrient load)
Model
Open boundary condition (Limited area nested models)
Definition of initial conditions for forecast simulations
Initial adjustment problem for nested models.
To overcome (or reduce) such problems, the forecasting
System must encompass both the open and the coastal
Ocean scales……
The pelagic physical-biological
interactions in the ocean
2
B
1
Nutrient
limitation
A
Stratification
light
limitation
1
2
Mixing
C
New
Regenerated
production production
F
Oceanic
Ecosystems
5
Coastal
Ecosystems
3
D
E
Microbial
food web
3
Herbivorous
food web
5
4
Large
Flagellates
phytoplankton and bacteria
4
Legendre and Rassoulzadegan, 1995
The components of an interdisciplinary forecasting system
Buoy stations
Adricosm
“in situ”
Observing
System
Currently
Running
Adricosm remote
Observing System
SeaWifs
AVHRR
TOPEX
ERS-2
The coupled physica-ecological modelling system
Need - Water column and sediment prognostic equations for
Physical state variables
Macro-scale: T, S, ρ, p, u, v, w (equation of motion
equation of state
equations for scalar properties
conservation)
Sub-grid scale: Kv, KH, Iz (turbulence closure equations
radiative transfer equations)
Air-sea fluxes:τw, Q, (E-P) (bulk formulae)
Water sediment interactions: τb, (bulk formulae)
The “Standard Organism” (Functional group approach)
CO2
Basal activity
Stress respiration
Uptake
Food components
(C:N:P)food
Nutrient
excretion
Organism
Nutr.
Predation
(C:N:P)organism
Mortality
Excretion
Defaecation
Detritus fractions
Predators
(C:N:P)food
Thus, the fundamental structure ofthe marine ecosystem
Model Is:
1.
2.
3.
4.
Physical environment description (macro and micro-scales)
Chemical currencies
Functional groups (Different species in a single group)
Closure hypothesis(or individual based modelling) for
Higher trophic levels.
All components interacting in a deterministic
way with bulk parameterizations
THE GENERAL STRUCTURE OF THE MODELS FORCING AND COUPLING
Nutrient input
Particulate
Inorganic Matter
Qs
Qb+Qe+Qh

w
(E-P-R)
PAR
KH (x, y, z, t)
T (x, y, z, t)
Ecology
Pelagic Model
S (x, y, z, t)
A (x, y, z, t)
Circulation
Model
u, v, w (x, y, z, t)
Cp (x, y, z, t)
Sedimentary and
Water-Sediment
diffusive processes
Ecology
Benthic Model
C p
t
bio
Cb
t
Cp
t
Numerical
Driver
(Time Integration)
Cp
t
phy s
Transport
Model
Implementation towards operational use of ecological models
MFS strategy:
•
Implementation of 1D models in data rich areas to
validate/calibrate models and check the physical/
biological coupling (MFSPP task accomplished)
•
Extend the implementation to 3D with climatological
forcing and nesting approach (MFSTEP task underway)
•
Explore the use of data assimilation schemes for
biogechemical state variables (MFSTEP task underway)
1D implementations: Validation under high frequency forcing
Bacterial biomass: 48 h simulation with 6hr atmospheric
forcing
Observations
Model
Comparison with observed
Bacterial Carbon Production
(BCP) rates
O
1DImplementation
improving biological
processes
Data + stdev
Standard model
Improved model
BCP = -b*f(T)*B +
(1-BGE)*U(substrate)
BGE = 0.3
(standard)
BGE = c – a*T
(Rivkin and Legendre, 2001)
3D implementations: Nested approach based on MFSPP
Circulation modelling
OGCM
Coupled Model
Regional
Coupled Models
The MFSTEP
Coupled Models Domain
Preliminary results forthe Adriatic
Chlorophyll-a
Thank You and See you in Next Workshop