Transcript Beautiful Thinking - Bradley University

Introduction to Artificial Intelligence
for Bradley University – CS 521
Anthony (Tony) J. Grichnik
Visiting Scientist to Bradley University
Caterpillar Inc.
Outline

Introduction:
The Clans of Artificial Intelligence (AI)

Logical – Be the Expert

Statistical – Would you like to play a game?
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Biological – Solutions…naturally
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The Future – Hybrids and more
Copyright 2006, Tony Grichnik ~ All Rights Reserved
Probability
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A coin has two sides, heads and tails.
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If we flip it 4 times, what is the chance it will
come up heads all four times?
(0.5)*(0.5)*(0.5)*(0.5) = 0.0625 or 6.25%
Copyright 2006, Tony Grichnik ~ All Rights Reserved
Permutation

A die has 6 sides, numbered 1 – 6.

On a single toss, how many ways can the sum
add to 10 or more?
Die A 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 2 2 2 2 3 3 3 3 3 3 4 4 4 4 4 4 5 5 5 5 5 5 6 6 6 6 6 6
Die B 1 2 3 4 5 6 1 2 3 4 5 6 1 2 3 4 5 6 1 2 3 4 5 6 1 2 3 4 5 6 1 2 3 4 5 6
Sum 2 3 4 5 6 7 3 4 5 6 7 8 4 5 6 7 8 9 5 6 7 8 9 10 6 7 8 9 10 11 7 8 9 10 11 12
Copyright 2006, Tony Grichnik ~ All Rights Reserved
Probability and Permutation

A dice has six sides, numbered 1 - 6.

If we roll 2 at once, what is the probability they
will add to 10 or more?

In other words, “What is the probability of getting a
permutation that adds to 10 or more?”
Die A
1 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 2 2 2 2 3 3 3 3 3 3 4 4 4 4 4 4 5 5 5 5 5 5 6 6 6 6 6 6
Die B
1 2 3 4 5 6 1 2 3 4 5 6 1 2 3 4 5 6 1 2 3 4 5 6 1 2 3 4 5 6 1 2 3 4 5 6
Sum
2 3 4 5 6 7 3 4 5 6 7 8 4 5 6 7 8 9 5 6 7 8 9 10 6 7 8 9 10 11 7 8 9 10 11 12
Equal or above
6
Total Permutations 36
Probabability
17%
Copyright 2006, Tony Grichnik ~ All Rights Reserved
Your Assignment

Are you a Master Mind?
Enter Code ==> 2 5 6 8 3
Enter Guess ==> 2 8 4 6 1
3 Digits Correct
1 Positions Correct
Copyright 2006, Tony Grichnik ~ All Rights Reserved
Playing MasterMind
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Player 1 (the professors) provide a 5 digit code


Each of the five positions can have the value 0 – 9
Digits can only be used once
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Player 2 (the student) enters a guess following the
same rules.
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Player 2 is told two things about their guess.

The number of digits correct


Right number
The number of positions correct
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Right number, Right place
Copyright 2006, Tony Grichnik ~ All Rights Reserved
Playing MasterMind
(continued)
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There are two ways to play.
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Option 1 – “The Dumb Way”



Calculate all the permutations
Keep trying them until you break the code
Option 2 – “The Smart Way”


…and that’s what you need to figure out!
HINT: Do you think it has something to do
with probability and permutation?
Copyright 2006, Tony Grichnik ~ All Rights Reserved
Playing MasterMind
(continued)

Measure of Success
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We’ll provide a list of 10 codes.
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Add up the number of guesses your algorithm needs to solve
them.
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Grades will be assigned on a Half-normal distribution




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Top 66% with the fewest guesses to solve all 10 codes get A’s
Next 33% get B’s
Outliers get C’s unless….
Guesses = number of permutations then you get an F
If you cheat on counting you number of guesses you get an F too.
Copyright 2006, Tony Grichnik ~ All Rights Reserved
Introduction to Artificial Intelligence
for Bradley University – CS 521
Anthony (Tony) J. Grichnik
Visiting Scientist to Bradley University
Caterpillar Inc.