Transcript The Railway Diagnosing System

Intelligent decision support system for
transport infrastructure investment with
emphasis on joint logistic concept
Case-study: East-West intermodal
corridor
Author: Jean-Yves YAMBEN
Supervisors: Dr. Jan Persson & Linda Ramstedt
Advisor: Mattias Alisch
Highlights
 Introduction
• motivation & state-of-art
• Key issues and targets
• Methodology
• Outcome
Highlights (Cont.1)
■ Intelligent Decision Support System layout
(IDSST2I)
• System Components
• IDSST2I in the framework of East-West
corridor
■ Technological contribution in the conceptual
IDSST2I
■ Conclusion
■ Future Work
■ Questions????
Motivation & State-of-art
-
-
Why this study?
Transportation issues (traffic congestion,
accidents, few spatial resources …)
Environmental issues (air pollution, noise… )
Scientific contribution toward profitable,
environmental friendly and sustainable
transport systems (East-West corridor)
Motivation & State-of-art
(Cont.1)
In the public transport investment field the private
stakeholders are the core element, which influences
the achievement of the governmental objectives
(economical, environmental and sustainable)
assigned to the transport system development.
The transport infrastructure investment decision is very
complex and time consuming process in which the
economical, environmental and sustainable goals
are set out by the only public stakeholder.
Motivation & State-of-art
(Cont.3)
Governmental transport infrastructure investment
decision process :
- Need of transport infrastructure
- Evaluation of potential private users (selective
method)
- Financial appraisal through cost-benefit analysis
and risk analysis
- External effects assessment
- Action choice+ parliament commitment
- Implementation stage
Key issues and targets
Key issues = weaknesses of the decision
process, described above are as follow:
- Inaccurate evaluation of infrastructure
potential users by using selective method
- Insufficient information exchange between
public and private stakeholders at the earlier
stages of the decision process→
imperfection of the acquired knowledge,
lack of common view toward goals settings
Key issues and targets (Cont.1)
- Substantial deviation from the expected results,
due to the threats in the financial and external
effects appraisal
- Public and private interaction via “old”
communication means (standard mails,
meetings …)→ time consuming and costly
decision-making process
Key issues and targets (Cont.2)
Targets= opportunities, providing by the “today”
infrastructure investment decision process are as
follow:
- Macro-level approach:
• Infrastructure investment decision (IID)= set of KPI
• Private stakeholder feedback= f(IID)= set of KPI
- Apply fair transport policy on the TI by
categorizing the private stakeholders according to
their impacts on the environment
Key issues and targets (Cont.3)
-
Shift the action of the supply chain from the latest
stage of the decision process to the earlier and
empower his role
- Application of the joint logistic concept in the
financial and external appraisal at the middle of
the decision process
- Application of ICT
Methodology
■ certified research papers and domain
literatures reviews, interviews
■ Agent & artificial intelligence technologies
■ Mathematical modeling
■ operations research techniques (discreteevent simulation and local optimization)
■ CommonKADS
Need
Of
Transport
Infrastructure
Outcome
Conceptual IDSS, called
IDSST2I, involved in two
dimensions
- “virtual negotiation process”
- “real negotiation process”
OK
Update
suggested
decision to
final
ROI>0
Governm
ental
analysis/e
valuation
of ROI
Initiation/suggest
ion of an
infrastructure
decision (small
or large scale)
Supply
chain
feedback
/evaluati
on of
veto
points
ROI < 0
NOT OK,
HCKPI
Delay
Intelligent decision support system
layout(IDSST2I)
IDSST2I in the “real negotiation process”
Simulator
Knowledge
base
3
4
Database
1
Fig.1 IDSST2I’ system components diagram
[1]- suggested infrastructure investment decision inputs by the public decision-maker
[2]- supply chain feedbacks input by the supply chain decision-maker
[3]- supply chain feedback with HCKPI
[4]- alternative infrastructure investment decision inputs automatically by inference mechanism
Web
portal
2
Intelligent decision support system
layout(IDSST2I) (cont.1)
IDSST2I in the “virtual negotiation process”
■ Input: suggested transport infrastructure investment
decision in the form of KPIs table
• internal output/input: supply chain feedback
“OK”/”NOT OK with HCKPI”
- supply chain veto points
=
SCVP1
j
or
SCVP2 =
j
TVC ji / Td ji <=
TVC ji / Td ji
TVC ji / SLji <= TVC ji / SLji
hist
hist
Intelligent decision support system
layout(IDSST2I) (cont.2)
• Governmental veto point
i
i
=
Maximize ROI =  ROI
 ((total.inf rastructure.utilization.receipts taxes fees) / cost.investment) 1)
i
i
■ Output: Alternative infrastructure investment decision or
“delay” according respectively to the value of ROI
positive or negative
System Components
■ Web portal
Application of ICT: enhance the accessibility and reduce
the cost and negotiation processing time
■ Database
For storing and retrieving data/KPI
■ Simulator component
For simulating the supply chain decision using computer
agent and alternative infrastructure investment
decisions
■ Knowledgebase component
For storing expert and domain knowledge and retrieving
infrastructure investment decisions
IDSST2I in the framework of East-West
corridor
►Improve
organizational structure of the East-West
project group
► study the possibility of applying a uniform transport
regulation within the corridor and reducing the cost
and business processing time
Technological contribution in the
conceptual IDSST2I
■ System design, based on modular approach
►enhance flexibility
►easy access to each system component
■ Agent & artificial intelligence technologies
enable to achieve autonomous infrastructure
investment decision process→ “intelligent”,
robust decision support system
Technological contribution in the
conceptual IDSST2I (cont.1)
■ Mathematical modeling approach
►simplify the reality from the knowledge expert and
domain knowledge
►transform the infrastructure investment decision from
undeterministic to deterministic
■ Discrete-event simulation and local optimization
techniques
►simulate different alternative investment action
without risk (learning process)
► enable to find the best suitable investment action
characterizing by ROI and investment cost
Conclusion
■ Conclusions
- Better evaluation of potential users
- decrease of cost and time in information
exchange processing between public and
private stakeholders
- Better achievement of common goals through
transport infrastructure development
Future Work
■ validation of IDSST2I in a real domain
■ sensitivity analysis
■ information and network security
■ User friendly Graphical Interface
Questions
 Break or ?????