Transcript Document

The Television Will Be Revolutionized
The iPad, Internet TV, and Web 3.0 (The Metaverse)
TEDx  Del Mar, CA
Jun 2010
John Smart, President,
Acceleration Studies Foundation
[email protected]
Slides: accelerating.org/slides.html
Acceleration Studies Foundation: What We Do
Acceleration
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▪ We practice evolutionary developmental (“evo
devo”) foresight, a model of change that proposes the
universe contains both:
1.
2.
Contingent and unpredictable evolutionary choices that
we use to create unique, informationally valuable, and
creative paths (most of which will fail) and a small set of
Convergent and predictable developmental constraints
(initial conditions, constancies) which direct certain
aspects of our long-range future.
▪ Some developmental trends that may be intrinsic to
the future of complex systems on Earth include:
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Accelerating intelligence, interdependence and immunity
in our global sociotechnological systems
Increasing technological autonomy, and
Increasing intimacy of the human-machine and physicaldigital interface.
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Great Intro Book on “The Post-Network Era” (250 pp)
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The Television Will Be Revolutionized,
Amanda Lotz, 2007
Prof. of Comm. Studies, U. Michigan
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My White Paper on The Future of Internet TV (47 pp)
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How the Television Will Be Revolutionized, J. Smart, 2010
Prof. of Emerging Tech, U. Advancing Tech
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http://accelerating.org/downloads/SmartJ-2010-HowTVwillbeRevolutionized.pdf
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Web 3.0 (The 3D/Video Web) is On the Horizon
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Five Generic Steps in Web Development
Metaverseroadmap.org
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Web 1.0
Web 2.0
Web 3.0
Web 4.0
Web 5.0
Read Mainly - Graphical UI
Read/Write/Participatory - Social UI
3D/Video (iTV, VW, MW, AR,) - Metaverse UI
Semantic (Valuecosm) - Conversational UI
Intelligent (Planetization, Global Brain,
Tech and Social ‘Singularity’) - Cognitive UI
Web
Metaverse
Metahumanity
We are climbing the hierarchies of the web, via design, use, feedback.
Edge platforms include search (Google, Bing, Wolfram Alpha), telephony
(iPhone, Android, Google Voice), static and mobile social networking
(Facebook, Foursquare), microblogging (Twitter), conferencing and
collaboration environments (Skype, Wave, WebEx, Wikis), video
(YouTube, Boxee, P2PTV), games and virtual worlds (XBox Live, Second
Life), mirror worlds (Google Earth), avatars (Miis, MyCyberTwin),
lifelogging (MyLifeBits), augmented reality (QR codes, Wikitude, Layar).
Collectively, these are today more a story of intelligence amplification (IA,
‘Sociotech’) than of artificial intelligence (AI, ‘Infotech’).
This is, by far, the largest and most meaningful complexity construction
process society has ever engaged in.
Smart, John et. al. 2007. Metaverse Roadmap (to 2025). Metaverseroadmap.org
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Fifty Years of Vast Wasteland
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FCC chairman Newton N. Minow , 1961:
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"When television is good, nothing — not the
theater, not the magazines or newspapers —
nothing is better. But when television is bad,
nothing is worse. I invite each of you to sit down in
front of your own television set when your station
goes on the air and stay there, for a day, without a
book, without a magazine, without a newspaper,
without a profit and loss sheet or a rating book to
distract you. Keep your eyes glued to that set until
the station signs off. I can assure you that what you
will observe is a vast wasteland.
You will see a procession of game shows, formula
comedies about totally unbelievable families, blood
and thunder, mayhem, violence, sadism, murder,
western bad men, western good men, private eyes,
gangsters, more violence, and cartoons. And
endless commercials — many screaming,
cajoling, and offending. And most of all, boredom.
True, you'll see a few things you will enjoy. But they
will be very, very few. And if you think I exaggerate,
I only ask you to try it."
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The Tablet Remote – Web 3.0’s Killer App
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What are the most exciting developmental uses for a tablet?
#1 iTV & Video, #2 Social, #3 eReading, #4 Games, #5 Clipboard, #6 Apps
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Apple iPad: No Apple TV.
Too little, too closed.
Lenovo Ideapad U1: Best
multiuse design. June 2010
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Will Google
get this done?
A perfect
YouTube front end.
There are about 2.3 billion TVs in the world. 20,000+ streamable TV channels. Thousands
more sit on the web, waiting for bandwidth. May be hundreds of thousands by 2015.
25% of US TVs sold in Jan 2010 were connected by consumers to the internet (internally
or via a set top box, game console, DVD player), 40% of these were internally-enabled.
Tablet TV Remote: Voice enabled, collaborative filtering of thousands of channels, 2ndary
screen, social viewing (chat, teamspeak), P2PTV, true internet television.
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Web 3.0 Needs Open Video Standards and Technology
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Web 3.0 (Internet) TV and OVML – The Vision
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Media center and touch tablet navigation. Control
20,000+ channels from your lap. Quickly.
Voice searches on our tablet, laptop, and
smartphone remotes
Collaborative rating and filtering systems, like
Netflix’s recommendation engine.
Social viewing, social networks, and realtime chat.
What are my friends watching?
Realtime captions. Secondary info streams.
Micropayments, Controllable Commercials, and
Per-Click Ads. New ways to monetize our video.
An open video markup language (OVML). Bringing
video into the hypertext world. User annotation.
Simple DRM. Sharing, editing, remixing fees.
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Web 3.0 TV Ads – Personalized and Unobtrusive
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Automuting (full or half mute, with our without
captions) of all commercial breaks.
Can “like” and “dislike” both video and ads with a
tap on the tablet or a voice command.
Can block or unblock video and ads for a preset
period (month, a year) a user set period, or forever.
Can email the video or ad maker (via contact tag
in OVML) your opinion on video or ad. Anonymously
published to the cloud unless you opt out.
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Web 3.0 – A More Democratized Media,
A Stronger Democracy
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A Democratic Challenge: America’s Income Inequality
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In the U.S. the top 0.1% (300,000 people) made as
much in 2008 as the bottom 50% (150 million people)
Income and wealth differentials of 50-100X are healthy,
fair, and incentivize innnovation. (Germany)
Differentials of 300X or more cause corruption,
anticompetitiveness, and middle class decay. (US)
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Inequality Dynamics:
Kuznets Curves and Great U-Turns
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We’re Not Going to Take It Anymore
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Howard Beale,
Network, 1976
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The Gadsden Flag, 1775.
Symbol of American Patriotism
and Disagreement with the Govt.
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A Few Things You Can Do
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1. Use Netflix Watch Instantly and RedBox (reserve
online) instead of DVD rental places.
2. Buy a TV (HD or standard) with an HDMI video
input. Perhaps a Sony Internet TV.
3. Watch the 2 minute Google TV video. Buy a
Google TV box or a D-Link Boxee Box this Fall.
4. Cancel your cable and satellite TV. Use the web.
Hulu, Blip.tv, TED, YouTube, DocuWiki… Explore!
5. Install BitTorrent, and download and seed rare or
interesting creative commons licensed video.
6. Install the free Kaltura Open Source Video
Platform on your website, if you use video.
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