Transcript KotlerMM_ch04 - UMM Directory

MARKETING MANAGEMENT
12th edition
4
Conducting
Marketing Research
and Forecasting
Demand
Kotler
Keller
Chapter Questions
• What constitutes good marketing
research?
• What are good metrics for measuring
marketing productivity?
• How can marketers assess their return
on investment of marketing
expenditures?
• How can companies more accurately
measure and forecast demand?
4-2
Build-A-Bear
Workshop makes
the most of
“interactive
entertainment
retailing”
4-3
Marketing Research Defined
Systematic design, collection,
analysis, and reporting of data
and findings relevant to a specific
marketing situation facing a company.
4-4
Karmaloop.com
4-5
Types of Marketing Research Firms
Syndicatedservice
Custom
Specialtyline
4-6
The Marketing Research Process
Define the problem
Develop research plan
Collect information
Analyze information
Make
decision
Present findings
4-7
Step 1
• Define the problem
• Specify decision alternatives
• State research objectives
4-8
Step 2
Data
Sources
Research
Approach
Research
Instruments
Sampling
Plan
Contact
Methods
4-9
Research Approaches
Observation
Focus Group
Survey
Behavioral Data
Experimentation
4-10
Focus Group in Session
4-11
Research Instruments
Questionnaires
Qualitative Measures
Mechanical Devices
4-12
Questionnaire Do’s and Don’ts
• Ensure questions are
free of bias
• Make questions simple
• Make questions specific
• Avoid jargon
• Avoid sophisticated
words
• Avoid ambiguous words
• Avoid negatives
• Avoid hypotheticals
• Avoid words that could
be misheard
• Use response bands
• Use mutually exclusive
categories
• Allow for “other” in fixed
response questions
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Question Types - Dichotomous
In arranging this trip, did you contact American
Airlines?
 Yes  No
4-14
Question Types – Multiple Choice
With whom are you traveling on this trip?
 No one
 Spouse
 Spouse and children
 Children only
 Business associates/friends/relatives
 An organized tour group
4-15
Question Types – Likert Scale
Indicate your level of agreement with the following
statement: Small airlines generally give better
service than large ones.
 Strongly disagree
 Disagree
 Neither agree nor disagree
 Agree
 Strongly agree
4-16
Question Types – Semantic Differential
American Airlines
Large ………………………………...…………….Small
Experienced………………….………….Inexperienced
Modern………………………..………….Old-fashioned
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Question Types – Importance Scale
Airline food service is _____ to me.
 Extremely important
 Very important
 Somewhat important
 Not very important
 Not at all important
4-18
Question Types – Rating Scale
American Airlines’ food service is _____.
 Excellent
 Very good
 Good
 Fair
 Poor
4-19
Question Types –
Intention to Buy Scale
How likely are you to purchase tickets on American
Airlines if in-flight Internet access were available?
 Definitely buy
 Probably buy
 Not sure
 Probably not buy
 Definitely not buy
4-20
Question Types –
Completely Unstructured
What is your opinion of American Airlines?
4-21
Question Types –
Word Association
What is the first word that comes to your mind
when you hear the following?
Airline ________________________
American _____________________
Travel ________________________
4-22
Question Types –
Sentence Completion
When I choose an airline, the most important
consideration in my decision is:
________________________________________
________________________________________
________________________________________
________________________________________
________________________________________
________________________________________.
4-23
Question Types –
Story Completion
“I flew American a few days ago. I noticed that the
exterior and interior of the plane had very bright
colors. This aroused in me the following thoughts
and feelings.” Now complete the story.
________________________________________
________________________________________
________________________________________
________________________________________
________________________________________
________________________________________
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Question Types –
Picture (Empty Balloons)
4-25
Question Types –
Thematic Apperception Test
Make up a story that reflects what you think is
happening in this picture.
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Qualitative Measures
Shadowing
Behavior mapping
Consumer journey
Camera journals
Extreme user interviews
Storytelling
Unfocused groups
4-27
Mechanical Devices
Galvanometers
Tachistoscope
Eye cameras
Audiometers
GPS
4-28
Sampling Plan
• Sampling unit: Who is to be surveyed?
• Sample size: How many people should be
surveyed?
• Sampling procedure: How should the
respondents be chosen?
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Types of Samples
Probability
• Simple random
• Stratified random
• Cluster
Nonprobability
• Convenience
• Judgment
• Quota
4-30
Contact Methods
Mail Questionnaire
Telephone
Interview
Personal
Interview
Online
Interview
4-31
Characteristics of Good
Marketing Research
 Scientific method
 Research creativity
 Multiple methods
 Interdependence
 Value and cost of information
 Healthy skepticism
 Ethical marketing
4-32
Table 4.4 Marketing Metrics
Internal
External
• Awareness of goals
• Awareness
• Commitment to goals
• Market share
• Active support
• Relative price
• Number of complaints • Resource adequacy
• Customer satisfaction • Staffing levels
• Desire to learn
• Distribution
• Willingness to change
• Total number of
customers
• Freedom to fail
• Loyalty
• Autonomy
4-33
Table 4.5 Sample CustomerPerformance Scorecard Measures
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
% of new customers to average #
% of lost customers to average #
% of win-back customers to average #
% of customers in various levels of satisfaction
% of customers who would repurchase
% of target market members with brand recall
% of customers who say brand is most preferred
4-34
Tools to Measure Marketing Plan
Performance
Sales
Analysis
Market Share
Analysis
Expenseto-Sales
Analysis
Financial
Analysis
4-35
Sales Analysis
SalesVariance
Analysis
MicroSales
Analysis
4-36
Market Share Analysis
• Overall market share
• Served market share
• Relative market share
4-37
Figure 4.2 The Control-Chart Model
4-38
Figure 4.3 Financial Model of
Return on Net Worth
4-39
Marketing-Profitability Analysis
Step 1: Identifying Functional Expenses
Step 2: Assigning Functional Expenses to
Marketing Entities
Step 3: Preparing a Profit-and-Loss Statement
for each Marketing Entity
4-40
Table 4.6
Simplified Profit-and-Loss Statement
4-41
Table 4.7 Mapping Natural Expenses into
Functional Expenses
4-42
Table 4.8 Bases for Allocating Functional
Expenses to Channels
4-43
Table 4.9 Profit-and-Loss Statements
for Channels
4-44
Distinguishing Types of Costs
Direct
Traceable
common
Nontraceable
common
4-45
Gladware uses
marketing-mix
modeling to test
advertising
effectiveness
4-46
The Measures of Market Demand
Potential
Market
Available
Market
Target
Market
Penetrated
Market
4-47
Figure 4.4 Ninety Types of
Demand Measurement
4-48
Figure 4.5
Market Demand Functions
4-49
Figure 4.5
Market Demand Functions
4-50
Product Penetration Percentage
4-51
Estimating Current Demand
• Total market potential
• Area market potential
– Market buildup method
– Multiple-factor index method
• Brand development index
4-52
Table 4.10 Calculating
Brand Development Index
4-53
Estimating Future Demand
•
•
•
•
•
Survey of Buyers’ Intentions
Composite of Sales Force Opinions
Expert Opinion
Past-Sales Analysis
Market-Test Method
4-54
Purchase Probability Scale
Do you intend to buy an automobile within
the next 6 months?
0.00 No
0.20 Slight possibility
0.40 Fair possibility
0.60 Good possibility
0.80 High possibility
1.00 Certain
4-55
Marketing Debate
 What is the best type of marketing
research?
Take a position:
1. Marketing research should be
quantitative.
2. Marketing research should be
qualitative.
4-56
Marketing Discussion
When was the last time you
participated in a survey? How helpful
do you think was the information
you provided? Could the research
have been done differently?
4-57