Transcript CPC 8 to 14 day Outlook

The Utilization of the Graphic Forecast Generator (GFE)
to Locally Apply CPC’s Week Two Forecast
The Utilization of the Graphic Forecast Generator (GFE)
to Locally Apply CPC’s Week Two Forecast
OVERVIEW
• WHY should this be done?
• How can WFOs address these issues?
• Can WFOs add value?
• How can WFOs easily create a week 2 forecast?
• Possible Future additions.
Why?
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CPC already offers a wide variety of very
useful products…..
Prognostic Discussions
Valid: Sep 23 - 27, 2006 (6-10 Day Outlook)
Valid: Sep 25 - Oct 01, 2006 (8-14 Day Outlook)
Issued: Sep 17, 2006
PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSIONS FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8
TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS NWS CLIMATE
PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD 300 PM
EDT SUN SEP 17 2006. ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY
MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS
AGO (D-3) FOR THE REGION FROM 20N to 70N
LATITUDE AND 175E to 60W LONGITUDE INCLUDE
THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE
FOLLOWING DATES: 19500929 - 19960904 19540929 - 19680920 - 19550922 ANALOGS TO THE
7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4
DAYS AGO (D-4) FOR THE REGION FROM 20N to
70N LATITUDE AND 175E to 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON
THE FOLLOWING DATES: 19500928 - 19790910 19960904 - 19680921 - 19810828 6 TO 10 DAY
OUTLOOK TABLE OUTLOOK FOR SEP 23 - 27,
2006 STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
STATE TEMP PCPN WASHINGTON B
CPC 8 to 14 day Outlook
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Covers all the Contiguous
U.S. and Alaska
Uses a 3 category
probabilistic format
Easy access for all
Designed primarily for
weather and climate
sensitive decision makers
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Weather risk
management
Energy/utilities
CPC 8 to 14 day Outlook
Problems
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Designed primarily
for weather and
climate sensitive
decision markers
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Weather risk
management
Energy/utilities
This is what often leads to
misinterpretations by our
other users….
CPC 8 to 14 day Outlook
Other Problems
• Covers a large area
• Covers an entire 7 day time
frame
• Uses only the average mean
temperature
• Only 3 categories used in the
outlook
• Lead to large temperature
ranges
How can WFOs address these issues ?
1. Downscale and simplify the outlook to a quick
reference graphic for our local area.
2. Provide text and or additional graphics to cover
what these graphics represent.
3. Through climatology and incorporating local studies
(both graphical and text), provide our customers a
better understanding of the local environment at
different times of the year.
1. Downscale and simplify the outlook to a quick reference
graphic for our local area.
1. Keep it as simple as possible
to minimize any confusion.
2. Use the same 3 category probabilistic format system
as CPC and downscale the area into the offices local
forecast area.
3.
Use the same definition as CPC
• Based on mean temperatures over a 7 day
time frame.
2. Provide text and or additional graphics to cover what
these graphics represent.
Below Normal
1. Use a color code so one can easily
identify the category
Near Normal
Above Normal
2. Create climatology grids of High,
Low and Mean temperatures over a
7 day period to over lay the color
code on.
Normal Low Temperatures this
time of year range from 40 to 52.
3. In text give the one standard
deviation range and an
overview of what the graphic
means.
Normal High Temperatures this
Time of year range from 74 to 79.
We are forecasting Below Normal
Temperatures. This means we
expect lows to be less than
5 degrees from normal. Highs
should be at least 6 degrees
below normal.
3. Through climatology and incorporating local studies (both graphical
and text) provide our uses a better understanding of the local
environment at different times of the year.
In our previous example we had already incorporated some climatology
and local studies
2. Create climatology grids of High, Low
and Mean temperatures over a 7 day
period to overly the color code on.
3. In text give the one standard
deviation range and an overview
of what the graphic means.
ITEM NOTE:
numbers for our standard deviations….
Normal Low Temperatures this
time of year range from 40 to 52.
Normal High Temperatures this
Time of year range from 74 to 79.
We are forecasting Below Normal
Temperatures. This means we
expect lows to be less than
5 degrees from normal. Highs
should be at least 6 degrees
below normal.
3. Through climatology and incorporating local studies (both graphical
and text) provide our uses a better understanding of the local
environment at different times of the year.
Climatology
Local studies
Can local offices add
value to CPCs week 2
forecast ??
One Standard
Deviation is not the
same all year
2003 Local Climatology study of DDC by Scott Reiter and Jon Finch
Can WFOs add value ?
Information currently available at WFOs to use
Climatology
Seasonal
Means
Patterns
Wet? Dry?
CPC
CDC
EMC
Large
database
of Graphics
and Text
Products
Local studies
Model
Performance
Model
Bias
Pattern
Recognition
Can WFOs add value ?
CPC
CDC
EMC
Climatology
Seasonal
Means
Patterns
Wet? Dry?
Trends
Local studies
Model
Performance
Extreme
Events
Pattern
Recognition
Model
Bias
What can we do with these?
Trends
Extreme
Events
1. Depending of confidence can we include trends in the 8 to 14 day period
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Will it be wetter or drier towards the end of the week
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Will it be cooler or warmer towards the end of the week
2. Given expected trend, time of year, and CPC discussions is it possible
at times to mention the possibility of an extreme event?
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Extreme Cold
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Extreme Heat
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Etc….
This is where we can start to add value to the current forecast.
How can WFOs easily create a week 2 forecast
What is needed
1. Something that currently is available
2. Something easy to use
3. Something that requires little or no additional
workload.
How can WFOs easily create a week 2 forecast
Answer
GFE
Already being used by all
forecasters
Has the ability to create grids and
text.
Relatively easy to configure
Smart tool and Procedures make
editing easy
Additional workload?
The 8 to 14 day Process
Once a forecaster has reached a decision….
Run the procedure
This procedure
will ask you 3
questions
Then simply save the grids
That’s it.
The whole process takes
less than one minute
Overview of the week 2 forecast
1. The Forecasters enter the outlook
2. At certain times a script will run which combine the outlook graphics
with the 7 day mean, low and high temperature grids which and sent
them to the web.
3. A text file is then created for each element based on the forecasters
input. From this text file a preformatted text product is produced based
on climatology from various observation sites in and around the local
area. This product is then sent to the Web and to the All Hazards
NOAA radio.
• The text created includes the most commonly asked
questions that we have received from our the public concerning
the extended forecast.
• The text also expresses uncertainty
Future additions
worth looking into
1. QPF
2. Quintiles
3. Adding High and Low Temperature
probability forecasts.