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Through Improved
Prediction and
Impact Modelling
Contributors
Programme Background
Storms have had an increasing social and economic
impact over recent years
Impacts caused by adverse weather are
disproportionately influenced by extremes
Climate change is likely to increase costs associated
with storm impacts
NERC has allocated £4.9m from 2009-2014 to
address research gaps, in particular, prediction of
mid-latitude storms and their impacts
Programme Background
The aim is to improve forecasting of storms and their
impacts on catchments and coasts
In the short-term
- 0-48 hours through numerical weather prediction (NWP)
And in the long-term
- over decades and with evolving climate change through improved
climate prediction
On both timescales there is a need to improve
forecasting of impacts
Programme Structure
Given the high degree of influence of storms on other
natural hazards there is a requirement for improved
linkage with impact models
- To better inform policy
- To enable measures that minimise storm associated risks
This requires information to flow between numerical
weather prediction, climate models and impact models
The programme has therefore been structured into three
interconnecting deliverables
Deliverable 1
Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP)
- increased understanding of and capability to predict mesoscale
structures in extra-tropical cyclones.
This project is being undertaken by a
consortium called DIAMET - DIAbatic
influences on MEsoscale structures in
extratropical sTorms
DIAMET - outline
A ‘field campaign’ using NERC aircraft to investigate
mesoscale structures in storms approaching the UK, with
high-resolution modelling of these events
Use the results of the field campaign to constrain
simulations in the Met Office’s Unified model
Improve understanding in terms of the fundamental
predictability of mesoscale structures
Deliverable 2
Climate Science
- improved understanding of how climate change and natural
variability will affect the generation and evolution of extra-tropical
cyclones
This project is being undertaken by a
consortium called TEMPEST - Testing and
Evaluating Model Predictions of European
Storms
TEMPEST -outline
Assessing predicted change in extra-tropical cyclones to
inform the next IPCC assessment report
Understand which processes are leading to the large
spread of climate model predictions for European extratropical cyclones
Detailed investigation extra-tropical cyclones response to
climate change
Deliverable 3
Impacts
- improved ability to use numerical weather prediction and climate
model output for storms impact modelling over a short and long
term
This project is being undertaken by a
consortium called DEMON - Developing
enhanced impact models for integration with
next generation NWP and climate outputs
DEMON - outline
A better understanding of the errors and uncertainties in
weather forecast and climate model rainfalls
The development of methods to use satellite and
airborne data on floods to improve flood forecasts
Methods to predict water extents, depths and velocities
during floods for whole urban areas down to the
resolution of individual buildings
Programme Management
Programme Executive Board – joint with CWC
Programme Advisory Board:
- Prof. Denis Peach (Chair), Dr Sean Longfield
Dr David Burridge, Prof. Ian Townend
Programme/Science Management Team:
- Dr Helen Beadman, Dr Michal Filtness (NERC)
- Graham Leeks, Dr Rob Ward,
Dr Daren Gooddy, Dr Lucy Ball (CEH/BGS)
Programme Timetable
2010/11
2011/12
2012/13
2013/14
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
Proposal Calls
Proposal assessment
Project/Consortium awards
Annual Programme meeting
Website Development
Stakeholder engagement meetings
Integration Workshops
2014
Q1
Deliverable/Outcomes
Development of new/improved models and methodologies
Collection of new data
High-profile publications
Guidance given to the climate impacts assessment community and
policymakers regarding the trustworthiness of climate predictions
Developing an integrated research community