Transcript Coastal Climate Change Report

Our Place in the World: Managing
coastal climate change risks
8 October 2011
215364015_4
Meredith Gibbs
Special Counsel
Where are we in the world?
Australia's coastline:
>35,000 km
New Zealand's
coastline:
>15,000 km
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MANAGING COASTAL CLIMATE CHANGE RISKS 8 October 2011
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MANAGING COASTAL CLIMATE CHANGE RISKS 8 October 2011
Where are we in the world?
Australia's coastline:
>35,000 km
New Zealand's
coastline:
>15,000 km
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MANAGING COASTAL CLIMATE CHANGE RISKS 8 October 2011
Overview
• Coastal climate change (CCC) risks
• Australia's vulnerability to CCC risks
• What is Australia doing to manage CCC risks?
• Australian Government's response – call for a national approach?
• State and territory responses
• Common CCC policies
• Risk protection standards
• Policies for managing CCC risks to existing settlements
• Local government responses – planned retreat case study
• International responses – some approaches
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MANAGING COASTAL CLIMATE CHANGE RISKS 8 October 2011
CCC risks
• Sea level rise (SLR)
• Coastal hazards (e.g. erosion, storm surges, inundation, geophysical
risks and sand drift) as exacerbated by climate change
• The cumulative effect of SLR and coastal hazards as exacerbated by
climate change
• Teaching an old dog new tricks?
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How vulnerable is Australia?
Australian sea-level rise (mm/year) from the early 1990s to
June 2010
+7.0
+7.1
+7.1
+3.3
+2.0
+3.5
+7.4
+4.6
+4.5
+2.1
+2.8
+2.6
+3.4
Source: National Tidal Centre 2010
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How vulnerable is Australia?
• 85% population live in coastal region
• All Australian capital cities are located on the
coast
• Coast is conduit for exports and imports; focus
of commercial activity in coastal zone
• Coastal populations = lower socio-economic
demographic  equity concerns
• Important ecosystems at risk, including World
Heritage Areas
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MANAGING COASTAL CLIMATE CHANGE RISKS 8 October 2011
How vulnerable is Australia?
• 39,000 residential buildings located within 110m of "soft' shorelines
(prone to instability) and at risk from accelerated erosion
• Many community facilities located within 200m of shoreline: 258
police, fire and ambulance stations; 5 power stations; 75 hospitals and
health services; 41 landfill sites; 3 water treatment plants, and 11
emergency services facilities
• Vulnerable communities, including indigenous communities, located in
coastal zone
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MANAGING COASTAL CLIMATE CHANGE RISKS 8 October 2011
Potential exposure to inundation and shoreline recession:
SLR scenario of 1.1m (relative to 1990)
2008 replacement value
Residential
187,000-274,000 properties = $51 to $72 billion
Commercial
5,800-8,600 buildings = $58 to $81 billion
Light
industrial
Roads and rail
3,700-6,200 buildings = $4.2 to $6.7 billion
27,000km-35,000km = $51 to $67 billion
Source: Australian Government (2011), Climate Change Risks to Coastal Buildings and Infrastructure:
A Supplement to the First Pass National Assessment
MANAGING COASTAL CLIMATE CHANGE RISKS 8 October 2011
But Australia is growing …
• Forecast growth from 21 million in 2007 to between 30.9 and 42.5
million by 2056 and to between 33.7 and 62.2 million by 2101
• Based on current trends much of this growth will be accommodated in
coastal settlements and cities
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How has the Australian
Government responded?
Australian Government's response to climate
change
Mitigation: Clean Energy
Future Plan (2011)
Carbon pricing mechanism
Promoting renewal energy
Encouraging energy efficiency
Creating opportunities in the
land sector
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MANAGING COASTAL CLIMATE CHANGE RISKS 8 October 2011
Adaptation: Adapting to
Climate Change in Australia
(2010)
Six national priority areas for
action: water, coasts,
infrastructure, natural
ecosystems, natural disaster
management, and agriculture
Australian Government's response: CCC
House of Representatives
Standing Committee on Climate
Change, Water, Environment and
the Arts Managing our Coastal
Zone in a Changing Climate: The
time to act is now
Australian Government Australian
Government response to the
House of Representatives
Committee Report: Managing our
Coastal Zone in a Changing
Climate: The time to act is now
2009
2010
Coasts and Climate
Change Council
Australian Government
Climate Change Risks to
Australia's Coast, a first
pass national assessment
MANAGING COASTAL CLIMATE CHANGE RISKS 8 October 2011
Australian
Government
Adapting to Climate
Change in Australia
National Climate
Change Forum:
Adaptation Priorities
for Australia's Coasts
Australian Government
Developing a national
coastal adaptation agenda,
a report on the National
Climate Change Forum
Productivity
Commission
investigation into
barriers to climate
change adaptation
2011
Australian Government Climate
Change Risks to Coastal
Buildings and Infrastructure: a
supplement to the first pass
national assessment
Australian Government's response
• Very little detailed policy or guidance at national level
• Coasts and Climate Change Council (supported by Department of
Climate Change and Energy Efficiency) currently developing policy
options for areas where Australian Government can take a leadership
role
• September 2011: Australian Productivity Commission to conduct an
inquiry into regulatory and policy barriers to effective climate change
adaptation
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MANAGING COASTAL CLIMATE CHANGE RISKS 8 October 2011
Calls for a national approach …
Coastal land
management:
who is
responsible?
Australian Government has limited
constitutional capacity
Primarily state/territory responsibility
Local government has day-to-day
management responsibility
Coastal boards
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Who is responsible for making and
implementing CCC policies?
• Complex division of state and
local responsibilities dependent
on jurisdiction =
• lack of clarity around responsibilities
• no coordinated or consistent
response to CCC risks across
Australia
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How have the states and the
Northern Territory responded?
What CCC policies are there?
• Each jurisdiction has state-wide policies to manage CCC risks but
they vary greatly in coverage and detail
• QLD, NSW, SA and Vic = detailed policies
• WA = limited
• NT, Tasmania = lacking
• Focus on new development
• Policy gap on how to deal with CCC risks to existing development
• Planning for emergency management responses in light of CCC risks
is lacking
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Most common coastal climate
change risk management policies
•
Identify vulnerable areas using CCC risks as variables (mapping)
•
Planning decisions should consider CCC risks eg. planning schemes and approvals
•
Take a precautionary, risk assessment-based approach
•
Locate and design new development so that it can be appropriately protected from CCC
risks - setback areas, land use zones, development standards, prohibitions,
minimisation of use of coastal protection works
•
Public funds should not be used to protect new development against CCC risks
•
Develop adaptation response strategies for existing settlements in high risk areas to
accommodate change over time
•
Plan for resilience in coastal ecosystems to adapt to the climate change impacts
•
Ensure all plans consider the most recent scientific information on the impacts of climate
change
How are CCC policies given
legal effect?
Legislative framework at state level
COASTAL LEGISLATION
CLIMATE CHANGE LEGISLATION
Coastal Protection Act 1979 (NSW)
Coastal Management Act 1995 (Vic)
Coastal Protection and Management Act 1995 (Qld)
Coast Protection Act 1972 (SA)
Climate Change Act 2010 (Vic)
Climate Change and Greenhouse Emissions
Reduction Act 2007 (SA)
Climate Change (State Action) Act 2008 (Tas)
PLANNING LEGISLATION
Emergency
management
legislation
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Environmental Planning and Assessment Act 1979 (NSW)
Planning and Environment Act 1987 (Vic)
Sustainable Planning Act 2009 (Qld)
Development Act 1993 (SA)
Planning and Development Act 2005 (WA)
Land Use Planning and Approvals Act 1993 (Tas)
Planning Act (NT)
MANAGING COASTAL CLIMATE CHANGE RISKS 8 October 2011
Building
legislation
and codes
How are CCC policies given legal effect?
Strategic
planning
State policies –
not binding
Statutory
planning
Planning schemes
- binding
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Development
decision making
• Strategic planning
documents
• Planning scheme
provisions
• Other relevant matters
How are CCC policies given legal effect?
• Principal mechanism is land-use planning systems
• CCC risks not addressed directly in principal planning/coastal legislation
• Most common response is to address CCC risks in state-wide coastal policies
(under coastal legislation or planning legislation)
• Policies must be implemented in planning instruments to gain legal effect
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How are CCC policies given legal effect?
• Where they exist, CCC risks become one of many considerations for
local councils
• Little guidance on relative weight to be given to CCC risks
• No hierarchy of considerations like Part II RMA
• Consideration of CCC policies can be avoided when decision is
"called-in"
• Result - No consistent approach to consideration of CCC risks; ad hoc
decision making
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What risk protection
standards are being used?
What risk protection standards are being used?
• No consistent concept of "coast"
• No consistent sea level rise benchmarks
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What risk protection standards are being
used?
• Why do inconsistent standards matter?
• coastal hazard vulnerability assessments use SLR
benchmarks
• identification of "coastal hazard areas"
• application of CCC risk policies to these
areas/"coastal zone"
• what happens if standards updated?
• Differences do not appear to reflect different local conditions
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What risk protection standards are being
used?
• Flood risk benchmark consistent = 1:100 ARI
• But issues:
• inconsistent whether CCC risks taken into account (and SLR benchmark
used)
• 1:100 events may become 1:10 events as impacts of climate change
intensify
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What risk protection standards are being
used?
• Risk assessment methodologies
• are CCC risk assessments mandatory?
• risk-based approach to development decision making
• QLD + NSW detailed guidelines for undertaking assessments
•
•
•
•
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minimum assessment factors
depend on life of asset
Methodologies – use SLR benchmarks
Similar to NZ MfE Coastal Hazards and Climate Change Guidance Manual (not
as broad in scope)
MANAGING COASTAL CLIMATE CHANGE RISKS 8 October 2011
Erosion prone area width assessment formula
– QLD Guidelines
The formula adopted by Queensland DERM for the calculation of the necessary
erosion prone area width is as follows:
E
=
[(NxR) + C + S]
x
(1 + F)
+
Where:
E = erosion prone area width (metres)
N = planning period (years)
R = rate of long-term erosion (metres per year)
C = short-term erosion from the 'design' storm or cyclone (metres)
S = erosion due to sea level rise (metres)
F = factor of safety (0.4 has been adopted)
D = dune scarp component to allow for slumping of the erosion scarp (metres)
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D
What risk protection standards are being used?
Western Australia
S1
S2
Acute Erosion (extreme storm
sequence) = distance for
absorbing extreme storm
sequences model using 1:100
year event-storm duration,
waves and sea level height
40m default
Historic Trend (chronic erosion
or accretion) = shoreline
change over 50 years – 100 x
annual rate of erosion/
accretion 20m minimum safety
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+
MANAGING COASTAL CLIMATE CHANGE RISKS 8 October 2011
S3
+
Sea Level Change
= 0.90m by 2110
=
Minimum setback
for physical
processes
What risk protection standards are being
used?
• Risk disclosure requirements e.g. when purchasing a property
• Only NSW has requirements that would require disclosure of CCC risks
• Victoria and SA: may indirectly result in CCC risk disclosure
• NSW requirements – could be applied in other jurisdictions
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What risk protection standards are being used?
• International examples: no consistency in use of SLR benchmarks or approaches
• Scenario planning
• UK – planners must use two scenarios: one based on events with a probability of
50% occurrence and the other with 10% probability to gauge the range of impacts of
climate change
• City of Cape Town, South Africa – no set SLR benchmark; instead using 5-phase
SLR assessment based on:
(a) 2.5m SLR in sheltered environments; 4.5m SLR in exposed environments and
6.5m SLR in very exposed environments;
(b) 4.5m SLR event; and
(c) 6.5m SLR
• We should be "robust" in consideration of worst case scenarios, taking
precautionary approach
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How are CCC risks to existing
settlements being managed?
How are CCC risks to existing settlements
being managed?
• Lack of well-developed policy across Australia; "work-in-progress"
• Obvious need to develop policy for high-risk coastal areas
• Three main approaches:
• Planned retreat
• Coastal protection works
• Emergency responses
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How are CCC risks to existing settlements
being managed?
• Planned or managed retreat
•slim on detail; can be difficult to
implement
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"Managed retreat" in NZ
• Defined as strategic decision to withdraw, relocate or abandon public
or private assets that are at risk of being impacted by coastal hazards:
MfE (2008) Coastal Hazards and Climate Change Guidance Manual
• Examples of requirement for "relocatable" buildings in District Plans
where conditions include:
• Building must be readily relocatable;
• Relocation strategy e.g. Tauranga CC requirement that alternative building site
is identified which is outside coastal hazard area;
• Trigger point and timeframe for relocation;
• Covenant on title re registration of conditions;
• Natural hazards notice on title under Building Act.
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Planned retreat –
rezoning
Glenelg Shire – western
Victorian coast
• Minister intervened
• New houses in high risk
area must be "relocatable"
• Relocatable houses can be
moved within 24 hours by a
crane at cost of approx
$10,000
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MANAGING COASTAL CLIMATE CHANGE RISKS 8 October 2011
Barriers to implementing planned retreat by rezoning
Existing use rights
*In all Australian jurisdictions
*Lawfully established, no change
in intensity, scale, etc
*Some States require compliance
with a code
*Can be lost if discontinued
*NZ – regional land-use rules
regarding avoidance and mitigation
of natural hazards effectively
extinguish existing use rights if in a
regional plan
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MANAGING COASTAL CLIMATE CHANGE RISKS 8 October 2011
Injurious affection
*Qld, WA and Tas only
*Limited right to compensation for
diminution of value of land as a
result of change to planning
scheme
*WA and Tas – only where change
is to public purpose
*Use it or lose it regime
*In practice hard to establish but
potential liability looms large for
councils impacted
Case study – existing
development
Belongil beach, Byron Bay
•
•
•
•
Directly north of Byron township on NSW coast
Narrow sand spit approx. 4km long
Long history of erosion; query causes??
Retreat policy has been controversial and difficult to implement
Belongil Beach, Byron Bay
Has had an (informal) planned retreat
policy since 1988
• Any new development or approved
additions or alterations to existing
development located in coastal
planning precincts, has been approved
based on a requirement that the
development would be relocated (for
relocatable development) or removed
(for non relocatable development)
• The development is required to be
moved once the erosion escarpment
encroaches to within a certain distance
as described on the development
consent (20-50m)
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• Must be capable of being moved by
a single 4WD within 24 hours,
without mains electricity
• Strong active Council pushing for
planned retreat
• Refusal to allow private erosion
protection works
• Massive coastal erosion
• Conflicting rights and interests
John Vaughan
Retired Byron Bay property developer
What happened?
• 23 to 25 May 2009 – Serious storm surge.
• Existing interim sandbag wall (2001) that had
not been maintained – built by Council.
• Large section of land lost (estimated $1million
value) – 10m deep across the property.
• Vaughan began emergency works to erect a
rock wall – including placing equipment and
materials on Council reserve land.
• Council sought to prevent Vaughan undertaking
the works – sought emergency injunction.
Court challenge
Byron Shire Council v Vaughan; Vaughan v Byron Shire Council
[2009] NSWLEC 88
Consent orders approved by the NSW Land and
Environment Court in February 2010:
• 2001 consent for the interim sandbag wall was
ongoing, and the Council had an obligation to
maintain and repair.
• Council ordered to restore the wall to its height
and shape before the storm.
• Vaughan entitled to maintain, repair and
restore the wall.
• Vaughan had an option to bring an action in
negligence or nuisance in the Supreme Court
for damages.
Public beach
access
v
private property
rights
Key issues
Some commentators suggest
that effective planned retreat
policies need to be coupled with
regulation that prohibits hard
protection works
Viability
of
planned
retreat
Coastal climate
change
Who is
responsible
for coastal
protection works
and who pays?
Council
liability
Causes of
erosion
Long-term
solutions
Post Vaughan - "Emergency" coastal
protection works
• NSW Govt amended the CP Act to include a new Part 4C:
• Emergency coastal protection works (sand bag walls) permitted where there is
an imminent threat
• Once only, for 12 month period
• Access to public land is permitted if required
• Do not need to follow development approval process
• BUT do need a certificate from the local council or the DECCW
• Local councils then required to monitor and maintain the structure for the 12
month period
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How are CCC risks to existing settlements
being managed?
• Three main approaches:
• Planned retreat
• Coastal protection works
• Emergency responses
• Hawke's Bay, John Bridgeman
• 736m2 property
• 2002: 2m high concrete wall 4m deep
into beach
• 2011: Resource consent application for
second wall 2.5m on seaward side
• Beach eroding 60cm per year
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Danish King Canute
Coastal protection works
• Coastal protection works policy in Australia
• lack of consistency in approach and bodies responsible (mostly
local councils) – ad hoc
• but common policy themes re use of public funds and new
development should not be protected by coastal protection
works
• often re-active and may cause more problems long-term
• cost implications – construction and maintenance
• will be required in major settlements
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International approaches to planned retreat:
examples from USA
Buy Backs - $$$
buy back plans in high-risk flood
areas (full market value)
buy-back of high-risk coastal
property but where the previous
owner retains a life interest or right to
occupy for a set timeframe
relocation subsidies, for example,
through low interest loans or grants
for relocation of houses, septic
systems, utility cables and the like
grants for demolition of homes in
high risk areas
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International approaches: examples from USA
"rolling easements"
• allow property owners to build on high risk land on the
condition that they will remove structures if and when
threatened by coastal erosion or inundation
"adaptive approach"
• Coastal legislation in North Carolina provides for a 30 day
moratorium on re-building following disaster events
• During the moratorium, zoning standards may be adjusted
and new measures adopted to take into account newly
created inlets or eroded areas
• Subsequent construction must comply with the new
requirements
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Property
rights
International approaches
Netherlands: allowing predesignated areas to flood
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Potential for national
approach
Potential for national approach in Australia
• Australian Government may wait for results of Productivity
Commission's report; may be some "low hanging fruit"
• Engagement with the states and Northern Territory
• Engagement with the wider community on the options for managing
CCC risks to existing settlements and the circumstances in which
such policies might be appropriately implemented
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Questions?
[email protected]
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