Transcript PowerPoint - Climate Conferences

Scientific evidence for predicting 25 years of global cooling:
Ice core isotope data, decadal sea surface temperature
changes, glacial fluctuations, solar variations, and historic
measurements— the past is the key to the future
Don J Easterbrook
Dept of Geology,
Western Wash Univ.
Bellingham, WA
IPCC, NASA Predictions
Global warming isn’t a prediction. It is happening
“If Canada proceeds, and we do nothing, it will be
game over for the climate. ….concentrations of carbon
…..would reach levels higher than in the Pliocene era,
more than 2.5 million years ago, when sea level was at
least 50 feet higher. …assure that the disintegration
of the ice sheets would accelerate out of control. Sea
levels would rise and destroy coastal cities. Global
temperatures would become intolerable. Twenty to
50 percent of the planet’s species would be driven to
extinction. Civilization would be at risk..
Over the next several decades, the …region from North
Dakota to Texas will develop semi-permanent drought, with rain,… occurring
in extreme events with heavy flooding. Economic losses would be
incalculable. .the Midwest would be a dust bowl. California’s Central Valley
could no longer be irrigated. Food prices would rise to unprecedented levels.
If this sounds apocalyptic, it is. (James Hansen, NY Times editiorial, 2012)
OR . . . . . .
 “Global
warming is over“
(Easterbrook, 2000, 2010)
 “The
current warm cycle should end in the next
few years, and global warming should abate,
rather than increase, in the coming decades.”
(Easterbrook, 2000)
 “The
current warm cycle should end soon and
global temperatures should cool.”(Easterbrook, 2000)
WARMING OR COOLING?
 What
 How
is happening now—warming or cooling?
have climates changed in the past?
 What
is the basis for predicting future climate?
 What
is in store for the next 25 years?
Global cooling has occurred over the past 15 years
Global
cooling
is real
Cooling temperature trend
Winters in
the US have
been much
cooler than
usual during
the past
decade
How do you predict climate?
1.
Computer
models
2. Real physical
evidence to
establish
cyclical
patterns
In order to predict where we
are heading, we need to know
where we’ve been.
The past is the key to the
future
(Cartoons by Josh)
Measuring climatic warming/cooling
in the geologic past
 Historic
temperature
measurements
 Oxygen
isotope ratios in
deep ice cores.
 Advance
glaciers.
and retreat of
 Measurement
temperatures
of ocean
Data in this presentation
may be found in this volume
Climate during the past century
The historical record:
Two periods of global
warming and 3 periods
of global cooling have
occurred in the past
century,
Climate during the past 10,000 years
The Greenland GISP2 ice core

The ratio of 18O to 16O depends on the temperature at the time
snow crystals formed in the atmosphere. The oxygen isotopic
composition of a sample is expressed as a departure of the 18O/16O
ratio from a standard.
 δ18O
= (18O/16O)sample ‒ (18O/16O)
_________________________________
x 103
(18O/16O)standard


where δ18O is the of ratio 18O/16O expressed as per mil (0/00)
The GISP2 isotope data reflects Greenland temperatures but
excellent correlation with global glacier fluctuations makes it
a good proxy for global temperatures.
40 periods of warming and cooling in the past 500 years
shown by isotope data from Greenland ice cores with an
average span of 27 years
Warm/cool periods over the past 5,000 years
The Medieval Warm
Period and Little Ice
Age were global
climate events
~3,000 publications
including many books
(Loehle, 2007)
Mann et al. (1998)
Almost every alpine glacier in the world shows Little Ice Age
expansion of ice following the Medieval Warmer Period
About 90% of the past 10,00 years were warmer than now
Abrupt temp changes of 8-24°F/100 yrs have
occurred many times in the past 15,000 years
Abrupt, intense
periods of global
warming 1015,000years ago
Global warming/cooling in past 25,000 years
1. Global warming has occurred
many times in the last 25,000
years, all caused by natural,
recurring processes.
2. The magnitude and intensity of
global warming during the past
century is insignificant
compared to the magnitude and
intensity of the profound
natural climate reversals over
the past 25,000 years,
Conclusions about global warming from the
past few centuries to 25,000 years ago
1. Global warming has occurred many times in the last
25,000 years, caused by natural, recurring processes.
2. The magnitude and intensity of global warming during the
past century are insignificant compared to the magnitude
and intensity of the profound natural climate reversals
over the past 15,000 years.
3. Period of global warming and cooling show a regular,
systematic pattern.
4. These intense periods of global warming occurred long
before any possible effect of atmospheric CO2.
What causes the systematic pattern of
global warming and cooling?
 Relationship
of climate
change and
sea surface
temperature
—the PDO
and AMO
Glacier fluctuations are a direct result of
changes in the PDO
Glacier fluctuations
exactly match the
Pacific Decadal
Oscillation (PDO) and
global temperature
changes
The PDO shows up as
sea surface
temperature changes
GLACIER FLUCTUATIONS
CLIMATE CHANGES
PDO-AMO MODE CHANGES
WHAT DRIVES PDO-AMO MODES?
PDO COLD MODE (1945-77)
PDO WARM MODE (1977-98
Sea surface temperatures
1997
1999
2001
2007
March,
2009
May 2012
Cold PDO has been
firmly entrenched
since 1999
Good correlation
between North
Atlantic SST and
temperatures of
European rural
areas
Good correlation
between AMO
and advance and
retreat of Swiss
glaciers
Good correlation
of PDO + AMO
and Arctic mean
temperatures
Setting up of
the PDO cold
phase assures
global cooling
for the next
~25-30 years.
How cool will it
get?
1, Like 1945-1977
2. Like 1880-1915
3. Like 1790-1820
Dalton Minimum
4. Like 1650-1700
Maunder Minimum
Role of the sun
in driving
global climate
changes
Maunder Solar Minimum
Dalton Solar Minimum (1790-1820)
Napoleon’s army of
400,000 reduced to
40,000, largely by
the harshness of
the 1812 Russian
winter during the
Dalton Minimum
Global cooling occurs during times of few
sunspots and low solar irradiance
Correlation of sunspot numbers and climate
Correlation
between solar
activity and
climate
Change in
production
rate of
radiocarbon
and
temperature
Svensmark, CERN experiments
 Variations
in the sun’s magnetic field affects
cosmic radiation received by the Earth.
 Cosmic rays produce ions that act as seeds of
condensation (clouds).
 Increased cloudiness results in climatic
cooling.
Cloud cover and cosmic rays
CONCLUSIONS








Many periods of natural warming and cooling have occurred in the past
15,000 years, long before CO2 could have caused them.
More than 40 periods of global warming/cooling have occurred in the past 500
years, none of which could have been caused by CO2.
Many periods of far more intense warming have occurred from natural causes
in the past 15,000 years, some as great as 20°F in 40 years.
Almost all of the past 10,000 years has been warmer than present.
The Medieval Warm Period and Little Ice Age did occur—the ‘hockey stick’ is
a bad joke.
The climate has been warming gradually since the Little Ice Age began about
500 years ago.
Recurring patterns of cyclic global climate change form a reliable basis for
predicting future climate changes—the past is the key to the future.
Computer models have failed badly in predicting temperatures.






Climate changes result from changes in the PDO and AMO.
The PDO flipped from cool to warm in 1977 and climate warmed;
the PDO flipped from warm to cool in 1999 and climate cooled.
Changes in ocean temperatures correlate well with solar changes.
Changes in the solar magnetic field affect incidence of cosmic rays
on Earth. Changes in cosmic ray intensity affects cloudiness,
which affects global temperatures.
The sun is now in a solar minimum and seems to be heading for the
Dalton Minimum (1790-1820), during which global
temperatures declined sharply.
The 1977-1998 global warming period is over and we are now in a
period of global cooling that will last several decades, similar to
continuing natural cycles dating back thousands of years.
Global cooling is real
Not only is the prediction of cooling in the
decades ahead based on solid scientific data, but
the data indicate it is a virtual certainty.
Cooling in the coming decades is assured but the
question remains—how cool will it be?
By 2040, (in 28 yrs),
the population will be
twice what it is today.
By 2080 (in 68 yrs),
the population will be
4 times what it I now.
Global cooling, will
reduce food
production and the
demand for energy
will increase
dramatically
Dogma is an impediment
to the free exercise of
thought. It paralyses
the intelligence.
Conclusions based upon
preconceived ideas are
valueless. It is only the
open mind that really
thinks. Patricia Wentworth, 1949
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Don Easterbrook global
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