Transcript Global Food Security Challenges and Opportunities

Global Food Security Challenges and
Opportunities
Shenggen Fan
Director General
International Food Policy Research Institute
University of Nebraska-Lincoln’s Interdisciplinary Research Initiative in Food, Water,
and Energy Resources Policy Event, Nebraska, April 13, 2011
Key messages
 Food security challenges remain large
 A development agenda with greater support
for food security is needed
 The role of policy research is crucial
Shenggen Fan, April 2011
Food security challenges remain large
Shenggen Fan, April 2011
The goal of halving hunger is off-track
Number of hungry people, 1990-2015
946
584
Source: Fan 2010
Shenggen Fan, April 2011
Challenges to global food security
 Food price volatility
 Energy/Biofuels
 Population growth and demographic
changes
 Land and water constraints
 Climate change
Shenggen Fan, April 2011
Food price hikes and volatility
Global hikes since June 2010
• Maize: 90%
• Wheat: 82%
800
Maize
US$/metric ton
600
Wheat
Rice
High domestic food inflation
• China: 10% (Jan. 2011, y-o-y)
• India: 11% (Feb. 2011, y-o-y)
• Driven by non-staples
400
200
Volatility due to
0
Source: FAO 2011
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• Natural disasters
• Panic purchases
• Trade restrictions, etc.
High and volatile food prices increase
food insecurity
% of households reporting problems in
affording food in last 12 months
Self-reported food insecurity in Sub-Saharan Africa
80
2006/2007
2007/2008*
2008/2009*
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
Source: Headey 2011
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Rapidly growing population and
demographic change
World population reaches
9 billion by 2050
 All growth to come from
urban areas
 Most growth to come
from developing
countries
Source: FAO 2009.
Larger and more urban population will demand more and
better food
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Rising energy prices influence food
security
 Rising energy prices
cause food prices to
increase, rather than the
reverse (Heady and Fan 2010)
140
120
100
US$/barrel
 Rising energy prices
make biofuels more
profitable, rather than
agricultural production
more expensive
Average crude oil price
80
60
40
20
0
(Abbott, Hurt, and Tyner 2008)
Source: Data from IMF 2011
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Biofuel boom
World ethanol and biodiesel
production
Ethanol
25
 Biofuel production to more
than double from 2007-09 to
2019 (OECD-FAO 2010)
6
Biodiesel
Billion gallons
4
15
3
10
2
5
Billion gallons
5
20
1
0
0
1995
2000
2005
2010
Source: Data from Earth Policy Institute 2011
Shenggen Fan, April 2011
 Biofuel demand to grow
four-fold between 2008 and
2035 (IEA 2010)
 Biofuels support to rise
• 2009: $20 bn
• From 2010 to 2020: $45 bn
• From 2011 to 2035: $65 bn
Food-fuel competition
Maize production
Share of maize used
for ethanol
300
Million tons
40
30
200
20
100
10
0
0
1995
2000
2005
40
Biofuels maize
35
Non-biofuels
maize
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
2010
Source: Data from Earth Policy Institute 2011
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(%)
400
Estimated areas harvested to maize
(Million ha)
(e.g. U.S. maize)
Source: Data from USDA 2011; Headey 2011
Biofuels will impact food security
(2020, compared to baseline)
Changes in number of malnourished children (‘000s)
Price changes (%)
Changes in calorie availability (%)
Source: Rosegrant et al. 2008
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Growing land constraints
Arable land per capita
(ha in use per person)
Source: Bruinsma 2009
Global extent of soils with low
nutrient capital reserves
Source: Ahamed et al 2006
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Severe water constraints
With “business as
usual,” high water
stress by 2050 puts
at risk:
→ 52% of global
population
→ 49% of global
grain production
→ 45% of global GDP
Source: Veolia Water and IFPRI 2011
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Climate change will push up food prices
World food price increases under various scenarios, 2010–2050
(% change from 2010)
Source: Nelson et al. 2010
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A development agenda with greater
support for food security is needed
Shenggen Fan, April 2011
Address food price volatility
 Promote effective policies and technology
investments to minimize food-fuel competition
 Support transparent, fair, and open global trade to
enhance efficiency of global agricultural markets
 Create global, physical, shared grain reserve to
address food price crises
 Establish an international working group to monitor
world food situation and catalyze action
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Invest in agriculture and smallholder
productivity
2005$int, bill
40
35
30
25
2005$int, bill
100
Transportation & Communication
Social Protection
Defense
Health
Education
Agriculture
Total (right axis)
80
60
20
40
15
10
20
5
0
0
1980
1983
1986
1989
1992
1995
1998
2001
2004
2007
Source: Data from IFPRI SPEED database
Improve access to quality seeds, fertilizer, financial and extension
services, crop insurance, new technologies, rural infrastructure
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Promote safety nets that increase
productive capacity
Ethiopia’s Productive Safety Nets Program (PSNP)
 Improved daily/capita caloric acquisition in last 7 days
by 10%
 Enhanced food security in 2004-06 by 0.36 months
 Rise in credit use by 12% points
 Increased use of fertilizer by 11% points
 Increased use of improved seeds by 5% points
Source: Gilligan, Hoddinott, and Taffesse 2009
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Promote land productivity improvements
 Create awareness of sustainable land management (SLM)
practices
 Provide technical support for often knowledge-intensive
SLM practices
 Support generation of innovative SLM practices
(e.g. fertilizer micro dosing and packaging, biomass transfer,
manure management)
 Invest in water storage or distribution to improve irrigation
efficiency
 Increase finance of irrigation investments, esp. for small
farmers
Source: Nkonya et al. 2011, forthcoming
Shenggen Fan, April 2011
Sustainable land management (SLM)
practices have win–win outcomes
 SLM practices: (evidence from Kenya, Niger, Nigeria, and Uganda)
• control soil erosion
• increase soil carbon stock
• increase crop yields
• reduce climate-induced production risks
• enhance agricultural productivity and incomes
 Examples of SLM practices: irrigation, agroforestry,
fertilizers, mulching, crop residues, improved fallow,
compost
Source: Kato et al. 2010; Nkonya et al. 2011, forthcoming
Shenggen Fan, April 2011
Promote water productivity improvements
 Higher levels of water reuse by all users of water
 Improvements and evolution of water technology
 Water and wastewater infrastructure
improvements
 Extension of services to rural and urban poor
populations
 Greater energy efficiency with increased use of
renewable energy
Source: Veolia Water and IFPRI 2011
Shenggen Fan, April 2011
Sustainable water management has high
pay-offs
Compared to “business as
usual,” it can de-risk:
>1 bn people
~$17 trillion of GDP
>20% of children likely to
suffer from malnutrition
(with higher investments in rural water supply
and sanitation and female secondary education)
Source: Veolia Water and IFPRI 2011
Shenggen Fan, April 2011
Invest in climate change adaptation and
mitigation esp. through agriculture
Adaptation: e.g.
• improved land management
• adjustment of planting dates
• introduction of new crop varieties
Mitigation: e.g.
• improved energy efficiency and crop yields
• land management techniques to increase carbon storage
At least additional US$7 billion agricultural productivity
investments are needed annually to offset adverse effects on
human well-being
Source: IPCC 2007; Nelson et al. 2009
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The role of policy research is crucial
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Changing global policy landscape
 Emerging issues and new actors
• High and volatile prices, increasing natural resource
stresses, climate change, demographic shifts etc.
• Emerging economies, private sector, philanthropic
organizations etc.
 Emphasis on country-driven and -owned
development strategies
Increased demand for policy research
Shenggen Fan, April 2011
Role of policy research
 Policy research evolves beyond technology e.g.
to macroeconomics, trade, energy, and social protection
 Contribution of policy research to poverty and
hunger reduction
• Direct: Increases investment in food security,
agriculture, and rural development and improves
resource allocation
• Indirect: Creates enabling environment for agricultural
technology innovation and adoption in developing
countries
Shenggen Fan, April 2011
Impacts of policy research
Vietnam rice marketing and policy research
• Influenced timing of changes in rice policies
• Generated benefits worth US$45-91 million
Bangladesh food-for-education program research
• Improved targeting and strengthened capacity
• Generated benefits of about US$248 million
Evaluation of Mexico’s PROGRESA
• Guided program investments and implementation
Public investment research
• Contributed to public investment strategies in many Asian
and African countries
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Policy research insights for resource
allocation
Ghana
Uganda Tanzania
Ethiopia
China
India
Thailand
Returns to agriculture or rural income
(local currency/local currency spending)
Sector
Agriculture
16.8
12.4
12.5
0.14
6.8
13.5
12.6
Education
-0.2
7.2
9.0
0.56
2.2
1.4
2.1
Health
1.3
0.9
n.e.
-0.03
n.e.
0.8
n.e.
Roads
8.8
2.7
9.1
4.22
1.7
5.3
0.9
Ranking in returns to poverty reduction
Agriculture
n.e.
1
2
n.e.
2
2
1
Education
n.e.
3
1
n.e.
1
3
3
Health
n.e.
4
n.e.
n.e.
n.e.
4
n.e.
Roads
n.e.
2
3
n.e.
3
1
2
Source: Fan, Mogues, and Benin 2009
Note: “n.e.” indicates not estimated
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Examples of policy research needs (1)
 Assessing the impacts of high and volatile food prices
on poor people (use of household surveys)
 Identifying strategic investments in pro-poor
agricultural technology development and adoption
 Understanding the impacts of biofuels and climate
change on agriculture and food security
 Identifying more effective strategies to promote
sustainable land management for poverty reduction
Shenggen Fan, April 2011
Examples of policy research needs (2)
 Understanding the impacts of global change drivers on
current and future availability and accessibility of water
resources
 Identifying research-based options to address growing
water scarcity and water quality challenges
 Identifying strategies to build the capacity of small
farmers and the rural poor to adapt to climate change
 Understanding the linkages between climate change
and gender
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