Transcript Rethinking Water: The High Meat American Diet is Draining Our

Is Climate Change Vindicating Malthus?
Food Security, Water Scarcity, and the Right to Food
Climate Change and Threats to Food
Security
Robert S. Lawrence, MD
Director, The Center for a Livable Future
Professor of Environmental Health Sciences and
International Health
Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public
Health
The Vicious Spiral
• The late James Grant introduced the idea of
the vicious spiral of poverty, population
growth, and environmental degradation (the
PPE spiral)
• We now must add the challenge of climate
change
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CLF Concept Model
A Conceptual Foundation to Guide Us
Resource Depletion
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75% global population live in countries where
resource extraction and depletion has exceeded
resource capital
Consumption of earth’s resources exceeds earth’s
capacity and ability to regenerate by 30%
Resource extraction will increase in newly emerging
economies
• Brazil
• Russia
• Indonesia
• China
• India
• South Africa
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Resource Depletion: Fresh Water
• Worldwide, agriculture
accounts for 70% of total water
use and 93% of water
extraction (FAO)
• Worldwide, aquifers being
depleted for irrigation faster
than they can be replenished
(e.g., Ogallala Aquifer, the
northern plain of China, Punjab,
etc.)
• Direct relationship between the
availability of water and the
world’s ability to meet the
nutrition requirements of the
population (Stockholm 2004
International Water Institute)
Resource Depletion: Water Scarcity
Resource Depletion: Soil Degradation
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Human Impacts on Biodiversity
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Energy Use by Agriculture
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The average U.S. farm uses 3 kcal of fossil energy to produce 1
kcal food energy
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For feedlot cattle, fossil energy input is 35 kcal for the
production of 1 kcal of beef protein
Fuel for Food: Energy Use in the U.S. Food System, USDA, 2010:
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In 2007, the U.S. food system accounted for almost 16 percent
of the Nation’s energy budget.
Between 1997 and 2002, over 80 percent of the increase in
annual U.S. energy consumption was food related.
Population growth, higher per capita food expenditures, and
greater reliance on energy-using technologies boosted foodrelated energy consumption.
Climate Change and Agricultural Productivity
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NEW Projected changes to crop yields
due to climate change
“All aspects of food security are potentially affected by climate change,
including food access, utilization, and price stability (high
confidence).” – IPCC, Climate Change 2014 Report
New Plant
Hardiness Zones
1990
2006
Food Production: Industrial Agriculture
What is meant by “industrialization”
of food production?
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A system for agriculture based on the principles of the
industrial revolution of the 19th century – mechanization,
efficiency, speed, uniformity and standardization
In agriculture: monocropping, heavy use of inputs
(fertilizers, water), reliance on fossil fuels
Definition Of Industrial Agriculture by the Union of
Concerned Scientists:
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Industrial agriculture views the farm as a factory with "inputs"
(such as pesticides, feed, fertilizer, and fuel) and "outputs"
(corn, chickens, and so forth). The goal is to increase yield
(such as bushels per acre) and decrease costs of production,
usually by exploiting economies of scale.
Industrialization of our Food
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Factors leading to the current “industrialized” food system
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Post-WWII fertilizer production has increased yields, but also
nitrogen and phosphorous pollution
Not accounting for “externalities”
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High resource use (soil, water, energy, etc.)
Environmental consequences (water degradation, pollution
by fertilizers and pesticides, soil loss, etc.)
Artificially inexpensive fuel and water
Agricultural subsidies (the farm bill)
USDA has dueling roles
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Promote U.S. agricultural products
Nutrition education
U.S. agriculture is defined by fewer,
larger farms
Diverse and Resilient to Specialized
Source: Economic Research Service, USDA
Consolidation in Livestock Industry
Impacts of U.S. Food Production
System
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Fossil fuel and water consumed at unsustainable rates
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Synthetic chemical pesticides and fertilizers pollute soil,
water, and air
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Soil eroding much faster than it can be replenished
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Monocultures erode biodiversity among both plants and
animals
Biospheric Animation
Sea-viewing Wide Field of View Sensor (SeaWiFS) data on marine and terrestrial
plant productivity. Satellite reconstruction of net primary production, both
terrestrial and marine over several annual cycles to give you a feel for the
metabolism of the earth.
Impact on Climate
Global climate model produced by NCAR (National Center for
Atmospheric Research). White is relative humidity; Orange is
precipitation. It picks up major features of this system including intertropical convergence zone.
NEW Gallons of water used in food
production per pound
2014 Culinary Institute of America, “Menus of Change” annual report, 2014
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Water needed for meat
425 gallons for 4 oz serving of beef
165 gallons for 4 oz serving of pork
66 gallons for 4 oz serving of chicken
Replacing half of the animal products in
your diet with plant-based substitutes
reduces food-related water footprint by 30%
Eating no meat reduces it by 60%
NEW Relative GHG emissions
associated with protein sources
2014 Culinary Institute of America, “Menus of Change” annual report, 2014
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Inefficiencies in meat production
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Meat-based diets consume more resources
than plant-based diets (Source: USDA)
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~700 kg grain to produce 100 kg of beef
~650 kg grain to produce 100 kg of pork
~260 kg grain to produce 100 kg of poultry
1000 kg water is used to produce 1 kg of grain
>7000 kg water needed to produce feed for
1 kg of beef
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Plant-Based Diets vs. Diets with Animal Protein
… 9.5–10 billion
people
… 6.2 billion
people
A grain-based diet could feed
…
An “American-style” diet high in
animal protein could feed …
… 2.5 billion
people
… 3.5–4 billion
people
Ounces
Meat Consumption Recommendations
10
9
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
8.8
5.5
64% reduction
from current
3.2
1.8
Current
consumption
USDA
recommended
Climate Change
Red meat CC
recommendation recommendation
(Lancet)
(Lancet)
Lancet: Per capita consumption to stabilize livestock
greenhouse gas emissions at 2005 levels by 2050
(McMichael et al 2007; also USDA, USDA ERS)
Cutting Back on Meat
• IPCC Chair, Rajendra Pachauri:
“Give up meat for one day (per week)
initially, and decrease it from there. In terms
of immediacy of action and the feasibility of
bringing about reductions in a short period
of time, it clearly is the most attractive
opportunity."
http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2008/sep/07/food.foodanddrink