Transcript Impact of Climate Change on Pakistan PMD

Environmental Prediction into the Next Decade: Weather,
Climate, Water and the Air We Breathe
Incheon, Republic of Korea, 16-17, November 2009
Muhammad Touseef Alam
Director
Pakistan Meteorological Department
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The country has a long latitudinal extent stretching from the Arabian Sea
in the south to the Himalayan mountains in north
It is located in sub-tropics and partially in temperate region
Most Parts of Pakistan
are Arid to Semi Arid
with significant spatial
and temporal variability
in climatic parameters
59% Annual Rainfall is
due to summer
monsoons;
Greater Himalayan
region above 35o N
receives winter
precipitation mostly in
the form of snow and
ice.
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Natural Climate
Variability
Climate Change
Natural + Anthropogenic
CLIMATE CHANGE
Global Warming
Increased Precipitation & its
uneven Distribution
Melting of Glaciers & Snow
Sea level Rise
Anthropogenic Influences
since the Industrial revolution
Increase in Frequency &
Intensity of Extreme Weather
Events
IMPACTS
Spiraling
Population
High pace of
Industrialization
Increasing use of
Fossil Fuels in
Industry &
Transport
Deforestation for
Agriculture and
Urbanization
Uncertainty in Water
Availability
Decrease in Crop Yields
Loss of Biodiversity
Increase Health Risks
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Some Recent Climate Extreme Events in Pakistan
2009
Karachi received 205 mm of rain on 18 & 19 July.
Heaviest rainfall earlier recorded at Karachi was 207 mm on
1st July, 1977. The normal rainfall at Karachi for the periods
1961-1990 is 85.5 mm
2007
Record heat wave gripped Pakistan during June, 2007.
48°C temperature was recorded on 9th June at Lahore, a
record repeated after 78 years. Earlier it was recorded on 8th
June 1929
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Some Recent Climate Extreme Events in Pakistan
2007Two super cyclones namely Gonu (02A) of Cat-5 and
Yemyin (03B) of Cat-1 developed in the Arabian Sea
during June, 2007 and hit Makran Coast and adjoining
countries. The history of the Arabian Sea at least during
the previous century shows no such events occurring twice in a
month
2001 620 mm rainfall recorded in Islamabad during 10 hours in
the month of July (on 23rd of July); it caused flooding in
Lainullah
1998-2001
History’s worst drought gripped southern parts of
Pakistan and parts of surrounding countries
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Recent Climate Extremes observed in
South Asia and Middle East
 2003
Heavy rains in the holy city of Makkah,
Saudi Arabia on November 10;
caused
widespread flooding of the
city
 2005
In India’s western state of Maharashtra,
exceptionally heavy rainfall was
recorded on July 26 when 944 mm
(37.1
in) of rain fell in Mumbai. This was
a
new all-time 24-hour rainfall for
the
country, breaking the old
record of
838
mm
set
in
Cherrapunji in 1910.
Around
1000 people died and damages
reached $ 3.5 billion
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Recent Climate Extremes observed in
South Asia and Middle East
 2004
Snowfall in the al-Jiys mountain
range in UAE, the first ever in
historical record
 2007
Sidr, a tropical cyclone of Cat-4
slammed ashore of India- Bangladesh
border on 15 Nov, 2007. This
matched the one in 1991 that
sparked tidal wave and killed some
150,000 people
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Siachen Glacier Past & Present
1989
2006
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Annual Mean Temperature Trend in (°C) in different regions of Pakistan
Regions
I (a):
Greater Himalayas
(1951-2000)
I (b):
Sub-montane
II:
Western Highlands
III
Central & Southern
Punjab
IV
Lower Indus Plains
V (a)
Balochistan Plateau
(East)
V (b)
Balochistan Plateau
(West)
VI
Coastal Areas
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Negative Trends in Region I b, II and IV; Positive Trends in other regions
Annual % Precipitation Trend in (mm) in different regions of Pakistan
(1951-2000)
Regions
I (a):
Greater Himalayas
(Winter dominated)
I (b):
Sub-montane region
and monsoon dominated
II:
Western Highlands
III
Central & Southern
Punjab
IV
Lower Indus Plains
V (a)
Balochistan Province
(Sulaiman & Kirthar ranges)
V (b)
Balochistan Plateau
(Western)
VI
Coastal Areas
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Negative Trends in Region II & VI; Positive Trends in other regions
Percentage Precipitation Changes (on yearly basis)
(1951-2000)
Regions/Seasons
I (a): Greater Himalayas
I (b): Sub-montane
II: Western Highlands
III: Central & Southern
Punjab
IV: Lower Indus Plains
V (a): Balochistan Plateau
(East)
V (b): Balochistan Plateau
(west)
VI: Coastal Areas
Annual
Monsoon
(Jun-Sep)
Winter
(Dec-Mar)
0.49
1.73
-0.04
0.3A
0.38
0.53
-0.02
0.22
0.00
0.63
0.57
0.99
0.22
0.45
-0.27
1.19
1.16
1.14
0.1
-0.2
-0.4
-0.82
-1.34
0.00
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Annual Temperature (°C) Trend 1901-2000 for
Pakistan
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Annual Precipitation (mm) Trend 1901-2000
for Pakistan
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Climate Change Trends over Pakistan
 The slope of the mean annual temperature over
Pakistan during the 48-year period 1960-2007
was found as:
1901-2000
1960-2007
0.06 °C per decade
0.24 °C per decade
 The rate of increase is higher than the rate of
increase observed globally
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Climate Change Projections
a)
Coarse resolution (~300 km x 300 km) projections
using Outputs of 17 GCMs for A2, B2 and A1B
Scenarios
b)
Fine resolution (~50 km x 50 km) projections by
dynamic downscaling of GCM outputs for A2
scenario using RCMs
Base period:
1961 – 1990
Futures:
2020s = 2010 – 2039
2050s = 2040 – 2069
2080s = 2070 – 2099
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GCM-Ensemble based Projected Changes in Annual Average
Temperature (°C) and Precipitation in 2080s
(A2 Scenario)
Temperature Change (°C)
Precipitation Change (%)
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Projected Temperature Changes in 2080s, ∆T (°C)
by GCM Ensemble for A2 Scenario
Pakistan
Northern
Pakistan
Southern
Pakistan
Annual
4.38 ± 0.44
4.67 ± 0.23
4.22 ± 0.18
Summer
4.13 ± 0.26
4.56 ± 0.28
3.90 ± 0.26
Winter
4.47 ± 0.20
4.72 ± 0.24
4.33 ± 0.18
•
Temperature increases in both summer and winter are higher
in Northern Pakistan than in Southern Pakistan
•
Temperature increases in Northern and Southern Pakistan are
higher in winter than in summer
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Projected Precipitation Changes in 2080s, ∆P(%) by
GCM Ensemble for A2 Scenario
Pakistan
Northern
Pakistan
Southern
Pakistan
Annual
3.48 ± 5.78
1.13 ± 3.95
4.28 ± 9.46
Summer
12.16 ± 8.91
1.08 ± 8.35
51.07 ± 39.78
Winter
-5.12 ± 4.78
-2.24 ± 4.10
-20.51 ± 9.05
•
The rather large errors make it difficult to draw any definite
conclusions about change in precipitation with time
•
There is, however, some indication of precipitation increase in
summer and precipitation decrease in winter in the Southern
Pakistan
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Major Climate Change-related Concerns of
Pakistan
 Key sectors: Water and Agriculture at greatest risk
 Increased risks of floods and landslides, droughts,
typhoons and tropical storms, forest fires etc. due
to increase in frequency and intensity of extreme
events
 Severe water-stressed conditions in arid and semiarid regions due to reduced rainfall, increased
temp., and depletion of soil moisture – May lead
to expansion of deserts
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(Contd.)
Major CC-related Concerns of Pakistan
 More rapid recession of Hindu Kush (HKH) Glaciers due to
increase in temp. and seasonal variability of precipitation may
lead to increased summer flows in Indus river system for a few
decades, followed by reduction in flows as Glaciers disappear;
 Reduction in capacity of natural reservoirs due to rise in
snowline on mountains with increase in surface temp. – May
increase risk of floods during the wet season;
 Agriculture productivity likely to suffer severe losses due to
high temp., droughts, flood conditions and soil degradation –
Would endanger food security of the country;
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(Contd.)
Major CC-related Concerns of Pakistan
 Large reduction in productivity of both warm water and cold
water fish due to oxygen depletion in aquatic systems
 As a result of sea level rise, large scale inundation of
coastline and recession of flat sandy beaches; upstream
incursion of saline water in the Indus delta; and risk to
mangroves, coral reefs and breeding grounds of fish
 Enhanced risk to life and property in coastal areas due to
increased intensity of tropical cyclones, combined with sea
level rise; High risk for Karachi and other coastal areas of
Sindh-Makran coast
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(Contd.)
Major CC-related Concerns of Pakistan
 Higher incidence of Malaria and other vector-borne, waterborne and heat-related diseases due to warmer and wetter
conditions
 Risk to fragile ecology of Mountain and Highland systems
due to synergetic effects of Climate Change
 Increased threat to biodiversity, which is already at risk due
to land-use/cover change and population pressure
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Concluding Remarks
 Temperature increases both past and projected are
higher over Pakistan compared to the global changes
and as such the country is more vulnerable to climate
change. Intensive research is needed to study the
adverse impacts of climate change on different socioeconomic sectors such as water resources, agriculture
production etc.
 Pakistan has more glaciers than any other land
outside the North and South Poles with sizeable ones
in the Karakoram ranges. Glacier melt, in the wake of
climate change, is a big threat to the country’s water
resources and needs systematic studies to be carried
out on the mass balance of glaciers
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Contd..
Concluding Remarks
 Capacity Building in the use development and
modification of mathematical models for use in
climate change related studies, needs to be
enhanced
 A clear cut climate change policy spelling out the
government policy and plan of action needs to be
formulated to counter the adverse impacts of
climate change
And finally
 This new field of climate change, being an emerging
component of natural sciences, needs to be taken
up as part of the curricula of studies at the college
and university level
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