Transcript Habib.pps - The World AgroMeteorological Information Service

Expert Meeting on Weather Climate and
Farmers .
Successful Application of Weather And
Climate Information, Data and Forecast
System in Agriculture.
Arjumand Habib
Bangladesh
INTRODUCTION
 Agriculture is mainly dependent on Weather and Climate.
 The main objective of the Agro meteorological forecasting
services development is to reduce the impacts of natural
disasters and to attain sustainability especially in food security
management for the growing population.
 And the services around the world have been undergone a
series of evolution since their inception with the development of
science and technology.
 From the second half of the last century the phase of
development has attained the maximum momentum because of
advancement of science and technology during the period.
 Besides the self, bilateral and international efforts for the
improvement of the services , WMO’s contribution was
remarkable since its inception as a coordinator of
meteorological data exchange through Global
Telecommunication Link (GTS) and other technical assistance
on regional and global basis.
 Other than the developed countries, still most of the developing
countries capacity for prediction of weather and climate is very
less especially in the context of global warming and climate
change scenario.
More improvement in the meteorological
forecasting system is the key factor for effective
Agro meteorological services
 Modernization of meteorological and Agricultural
management system is must for overall prediction
enhancement.
 It is indispensable now for the introduction of
Numerical Weather Prediction techniques in weather
forecasting for having objective decision making with
more lead time.
 More data coverage by Doppler Radar System, Satellite
monitoring and Automatic remote sensing stations.
 Improved weather, Climate data and information will certainly
improve the functionality of agricultural modeling.
 GIS technology will help further the functionality of modeling
system by assimilating more environmental and socio economic
information and finally enhance the decision making process of
agricultural management.
Application of Models in Agriculture
 Statistical models have good practical results in arid –tropical
and temperate zone for drought mitigation .
 Simulation technology is an efficient management tool for
planning and production estimate.
 For taking proper adaptation measures, assessment of future
climate change impact on productivity, simulation model can
offer a better prospect.
 Integration of simulation and Global circulation model give
impact assessment of climate change on different crops on
regional and global basis.
Example of Application of Simulation Model
in climate Change Scenario Assessment.
 CERES-Wheat model V3.5 is validated on various genotypes
under diverse environment in North West India.
 Results indicate that the simulated phonological and yield
attributes are either close to observed ones or vary with -15%
to + 15%. This is quite acceptable for most management
decision.
 The effect of increasing CO2 concentration will increase net
primary productivity of plants, but climate change and its
associated changes ultimately lead to either increased or
decreased net eco system productivity.
 Impact of modified climate is observed higher under rain-fed
conditions as compared to irrigated ones in all genotypes.
 Adaptation assessment suggests that the possible changes in
sowing dates and hybrid selection can reduce the negative
impact of projected future warming in the country.
 To asses the impact of climate in the sugar beet yield over
northern Europe, simulation model result indicate expected
increase of production by one tons/hectare in Northern Europe.
 But decrease of similar magnitude in northern France, Belgium
and West/ Central Poland for the period 20021-2050.
 Drought losses are predicted to approx. double in area with an
existing problem and a serious new problem in NE France and
Belgium.
Example of Operational Agro-meteorological
Forecasting System in Australia
“Farm weather” service provide weather forecast and agronomic advice
to a large part of Australia.
Economic benefits of the service based on only the production of four
main export crops are about six times, the cost of producing the services.
The service product has been developed with the help of Radar , Satellite,
NWP, Automatic remote sensing observations with speedy and reliable
communication.
 The product includes forecast for one week,
incorporating expert opinion of meteorologist ,
containing computer graphics depicting model output,
Radar and satellite picture.
 Dissemination to the end user by fax and internet
 “Farmweather” can be applicable in developing
countries provided they have sufficient real time
monitoring system and at least Fax Machine for
dissemination.
Example of Application of Weather and Climate data,
information in Agricultural management in developing
Countries.
BANGLADESH
Agro based tropical country having area of 147, 570 sq kms & population is
135 millions.
Low lying country comprising of a delta at the confluence of the major rivers
flow from India , Nepal, China and ultimately fall to the Bay of Bengal through
India
Bangladesh.
About 80% of the land is flood prone, at least 20% of the land normally
Inundated and under excessive flooding about 70% area is affected during
monsoon.
Climate is dominated by southwest monsoon.
Plentiful rain, less annual variability and equable thermal regime made the
country a developed agricultural area.
Background of agricultural Management In
Bangladesh
 During last three decades food production tripled from 10
million tones of early 1970’s 20 27 million tones in 2000
 This is due to the rapid adaptation of mechanical irrigation, use
of modern HYV varieties of seeds, increased use of fertilizer,
pesticides and effective extension service along with weather
forecast for day to day agricultural operation.
 In 1986, Agro meteorological service of Bangladesh
meteorological department started functioning with 12 Agro-met
stations. In 2003, more radiation and soil moisture measuring
instruments are included in the service.
 10 days Agro meteorological bulletins issued containing past
weather and climate data and information with 10 days
forecast.
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 Dissemination to the policy makers
by fax and end user by
extension service.
 After 1975’s great famine, Bangladesh did not suffer from major
food crisis.
 Food production at the moment is not at the rate earlier the
country enjoyed, but population growth is continuing .
 Our emphasis on rice production has limited the scope for
livestock and fish cultivation
 Indiscriminate use of pesticides and chemical fertilizer now
became a threat to natural eco system.
 So any fluctuation due to climate variability could upset the
delicately balanced food management .
 Existing meteorological and Agro-meteorological services
have not enough capacity to give seasonal and accurate
lead time forecast for extreme events especially for flood.
Limitation of existing Food Information
System
 The occurrence of flood at the time of harvest not
only leaves little time to complete harvest
operation, also delayed the time for next
transplanting.
 Loss of investment made for the damaged crops
reduces the capacity of the farmers for sowing /
planting of next crop.
Potential value of accurate short to Medium
Range Flood forecast ( 5 days to 2 weeks)
 Acceleration of harvesting of crops when threatened by
floods and to take mid season correction and crop life
saving measures when ever possible.
 To protect farm assets.
Potential value of long range Forecast
( 2 months or more)
 Flood escaping cropping strategy could be taken for flood
prone area.
 Availability of short duration varieties of crops, proper
extension, market support, acceptance of probabilistic
forecast by farmers in various risk prone areas are needed
for better management.
Conclusion
 The capacity of meteorologist and farmers to be enhanced.
 Seasonal and accurate lead-time forecast for extreme
events.
 Proper adaptation strategy to be taken in the context of
climate change.
INDIA
Climate
The sub continent covers tropical, sub-tropical and temperate
regions.
The annual variation of rainfall is large being less than 10 cm in
North west and over 1000 cm in North East with varying weather
phenomena like snow storm, tropical cyclone, excessive rainfall
etc.
Temperature vary from -45° to 49°C in winter to summer from
North west in winter to central Rajasthan in summer.
However the main feature of the climate is characterized by the
south west monsoon rainfall, but its wide variation in time and
space causing droughts and floods.
Cropping Pattern in INDIA
 Different states have different cropping and vegetation
patterns based on agro–climatic feature of rainfall , types of
soil and topography.
 Annual rainfall variability from one state to another
stretches from 10% - 60% or even more, characterized by
heavy to low rainfall.
 So, flooding and drought are the common phenomena
causing considerable decrease in yield and loss of
agricultural output.
 Southwest monsoon rainfall and its distribution are very
crucial for crop production.
History of Agro meteorological Services
Development In INDIA
 In 1875 the system for meteorological observation and its
dissemination to the Govt was established throughout
India.
 After that, the long period since then up to today, various
collaborative and coordinated schemes were taken
incorporating Govt’s Departments, Research Institutes and
Universities to exploit weather and climate system for
agriculture and those steps had facilitated the growth of
Agro-Meteorology in different dimensions in India.
Mitigational Approaches
 The anticipated population growth may be 15000 million by 2020.
 The food production has to be stepped up from 184 million metric tones
during the year 1994-95 to 225 million metric tones by 2020.
 The water needs in agricultural sector are very high as several thousand
tones of water is required to produce one metric tone of food grain.
 Therefore long term strategies for mitigation of drought is very important for
INDIA.
 Energy shortage is another constraint in drought mitigation.
 So to mitigate floods and droughts India have undertaken a
very detailed study to formulate a set of criteria for optimum
sowing rains and established a system for monitoring of
droughts on real time basis.
 Criteria for optimum sowing rains are drawn on the basis
of long term data of 80 years (1901-1981).
 Drought Research Unit of India prepares monthly Aridity
Anomaly maps.
 From the survey it is found that the monitoring of drought
have made marked improvement in the agricultural
practices. The evolved techniques also in help for planners
in the following fields:
– Conservation of soil moisture
– Introduction of crop sowing techniques
– Introduction of alternate cropping pattern
Application of Statistical and simulation
models in Agriculture for decision making
and adaptation.
 Monthly interim forecast are prepared for policy makers by using
Regression crop yield model
 Simulation models for Wheat and Rice are validated under diverse
climatic conditions to asses the climate change impacts.
Operational Agro meteorological
Services
 For day to day agricultural operations, daily weather
bulletins containing past weather, district wise forecast for
next 24 hrs and outlook for subsequent two days with
warning for extreme events are issued twice daily and
broadcast by Radio.
 Agro met advisory bulletin which is short and medium
range weather forecast issued twice a week in consultation
with agricultural expert for taking planning decision and
broadcast by Radio and also telecast & published in
Newspapers.
Other Fields of Operational AgroMeteorological Activities
 The objective of Dry farming activities is to help farmers of the
area where no irrigation facilities available for proper utilization
of short period rainfall more efficiently
 For locust eradication 7 Pilot balloon cum micro meteorological
stations are used to monitor the low level flow of locust
 To improve the agricultural practices in mass scale , Satellite
Instructional Television experiment has been started functioning
since 1975.
 The programme includes
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Weather Information
Advise on sowing Operation
Application of insecticides
Warning for floods
CONCLUSION
 The climate change will have significant interaction
with crop growth, development, water use and
productivity. So, it would be a threat to the existing
agriculture practices.
 To combat the negative impact of climate change,
an appropriate weather and climate based
advisory and forecast of all scale generated from
high resolution data source and system along with
proper adaptation measures are to be taken.