Transcript Folie 1

Storm issues and results
of the past 10 years of work
Hans von Storch
Institute of Coastal Research, GKSS Research Center,
Geesthacht
and
CLISAP KlimaCampus, Hamburg University, Germany
8. September 2010 - GKSS-Seminar on Storm Studies, Seewetteramt Hamburg
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Key questions
When referring to storms, we refer to wind storms, in particular
- Baroclinic midlatitude storms
- mesoscale non-tropical storms: polar lows, med sea mesoscale
storms
- tropical storms (SE Asia/NW Pacific)
Relevant variables: strong wind, pressure, impact on coastal ocean
We ask for statistics
- of present conditions and impacts
- recent and current changes of trends (incl. detection and
attribution)
- scenarios of possible future changes.
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Message
Storminess is best represented by wind statistics, possibly derived
quantities such as stream function or vorticity.
a) The major problem for statistical analysis of observational
wind data is the sampling assumption; such data are almost
always inhomogeneous and too short.
b) Alternative: proxies – pressure based, sedimentation
c) Simulation data are usually “better” – namely homogenous
are available for long even very long times. But the degree of
realism is always an issue.
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Representativity of near surface wind speed
measurements
Wind speed measurements
SYNOP Measuring net (DWD)
Coastal stations at the German Bight
Observation period: 1953-2005
This and the next 2 transparencies:
Janna Lindenberg, GKSS
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Representativity of near surface wind speed
measurements
Causes of inhomogenities:
Changes in
 Instruments
 Sampling frequencies
1.25
m/s
 Measuring units
 Environments (e.g. trees,
buildings)
 Location
Station relocations
(Dotted lines)
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Representativity of near surface wind speed
measurements
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Losses from Atlantic
Hurricanes
The increase in damages related
to extreme weather conditions
is massive – but is it because
the weather is getting worse?
“Great Miami”, 1926, Florida,
Alamaba – damages of 2005
usage - in 2005 money: 139 b$
Katrina, 2005: 81 b$
Pielke, Jr., R.A., Gratz, J., Landsea, C.W., Collins,
D., Saunders, M., and Musulin, R., 2008.
Normalized Hurricane Damages in the United
States: 1900-2005. Natural Hazards Review
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Key publication
Polar lows
•Zahn, M., and H. von Storch, 2008: A longterm climatology of North Atlantic Polar Lows. Geophys. Res. Lett., 35, L22702,
doi:10.1029/2008GL035769
•Zahn, M., and H. von Storch, 2008: Tracking Polar Lows in CLM, M
•Zahn, M., H. von Storch, and S. Bakan, 2008: Climate mode simulation of North Atlantic Polar Lows in a limited area model,
Tellus A, DOI: 10.1111/j.1600-0870.2008.00330.xeteor. Z. 17: 445-453
•Chen, F., 2010: Case study on North Pacific Ocean polar lows in a Regional Climate Model, in preparation
Typhoons
•Feser, F.,and H. von Storch, 2008: Regional modelling of the western Pacific typhoon season 2004, Meteor. Z. 17, 519-528.
doi 10.1127/0941-2948/2008/0282Feser, F., and H. von Storch, 2008: A dynamical downscaling case study for typhoons in SE
Asia using a regional climate model. Mon. Wea. Rev. 136, 1806-1815
Historical variability
•Fischer-Bruns, I., H. von Storch, F. González-Rouco and E. Zorita, 2005: Modelling the variability of midlatitude storm activity
on decadal to century time scales. Clim. Dyn. 25: 461-476, DOI 10.1007/s00382-005-0036-1
Inhomogeneity
Lindenberg , J., H.-T. Mengelkamp and G. Rosenhagen , 2010: Representativity of near surface wind measurements from
coastal stations at the German Bight , submitted
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Proxy pressures
•Schmidt, H. and H. von Storch, 1993: German Bight storms analyzed. Nature 365, 791
•Bärring, L. and H. von Storch, 2004: Northern European Storminess since about 1800. Geophys. Res. Lett. 31, L20202,
doi:10.1029/2004GL020441, 1-4
•Krueger, O., und H. von Storch, 2010: Evaluation of an air pressure based proxy for storm activity, submitted
•Matulla, C., M. Hofstätter, I. Auer, R. Böhm, H. von Storch and M. Maugeri, 2010 Storminess in Northern Italy and the Adriatic
Sea reaching back to 1760, submitted
•Matulla, C., and H. von Storch, 2009: Changes in Eastern Canadian Storminess since 1880. J. Climate, submitted
Baroclinic storms and impacts
•Günther, H., W. Rosenthal, M. Stawarz, Carretero, J.C., M. Gomez, I. Lozano, O. Serano and M. Reistad, 1998: The wave
climate of the Northeast Atlantic over the period 1955-1994: The WASA wave hindcast. Global Atm. Oc. System,6, 121-163
•WASA, 1998: Changing waves and storms in the Northeast Atlantic? - Bull. Amer. Met. Soc. 79, 741-760
•Weisse, R., H. von Storch and F. Feser, 2005: Northeast Atlantic and North Sea storminess as simulated by a regional climate
model 1958-2001 and comparison with observations. J. Climate 18, 465-479
•Weisse, R., H. von Storch, U. Callies, A. Chrastansky, F. Feser, I. Grabemann, H. Günther, A. Plüss, T. Stoye, J. Tellkamp, J.
Winterfeldt and K. Woth, 2009: Regional meteo-marine reanalyses and climate change projections: Results for Northern Europe
and potentials for coastal and offshore applications, Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc. 90: 849-860.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/2008BAMS2713.1
•Woth, K., R. Weisse and H. von Storch, 2005: Dynamical modelling of North Sea storm surge extremes under climate change
conditions - an ensemble study. Ocean Dyn. 56/1: 3-15, DOI 10.1007/s10236-005-0024-3
•Grabemann, I. and R. Weisse, 2007: Climate change impact on extreme wave conditions in the North Sea: An ensemble study,
Ocean Dynamics,
•Weisse, R. and A. Plüß, 2005: Storm related sea level variations along the North Sea Coast as simulated by a high-resolution
model 1958-2002, Ocean Dynamics, 56(1), 16-25, DOI: 10.1007/s10236-005-0037-y
•Woth K., 2005: Projections of North Sea storm surge extremes in a warmer climate: How important are the RCM driving GCM
and the chosen scenario? Geophys Res Lett: 32, L22708, doi: 10.1029/2005GL023762
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Gudrun Rosenhagen: Storm analysis investigations of DWD
Theo Mengelkamp: The extreme wind climate from observations and model
data
Iria Costas: Climate Archive Dune (ClimAD): a sedimentological record of wind
field variations
Sebastian Wagner: Storms in the European Alpine region
Oliver Krüger: Evaluation of an air pressure based proxy for storm activity
Frederik Schenk: Reconstruction of highly resolved wind fields since 1850 AD
for Northern Europe
Matthias Zahn: Estimation of future polar low frequency over the North Atlantic
Fei Chen: Case studies of polar lows by a regional climate model over the North
Pacific Ocean
Lan Xia: A Comparison of Two Tracking Methods on Polar Lows
Leone Cavicchia: An overview of Mediterranean Sea storms
Frauke Feser: Typhoon analysis for the last decades
Monika Barcikowska: Satellite-based products usability in typhoon statistics
validation
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