Transcript ppt - WMO

GCOS and IPCC
Future directions of IPCC and
how GCOS can support climate science and assessment
Presentation by
Renate Christ, Secretary of the IPCC
Geneva, 14 October 2008
Observations of physical climate
IPCC
Observations - Some key uncertainties
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Total and low level cloud change over oceans
Quantifying trends in precipitation
Soil moisture and streamflow
Extreme events
In situ snow data
Thickness of Arctic ice
Glacier mass loss
Mass balance of ice sheets and ice sheet flow
Trends in the MOC
It is likely that anthropogenic warming has had a
discernible influence on many physical and
biological systems
Observed changes in physical and biological systems since 1970
Marked scarcity of observational data in developing countries
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Observed impacts - research needs
Improved observation networks
• to enhance research capability on changes in
physical, biological and socio-economic systems,
particularly in regions with sparse data;
• to improve functional understanding of the responses
of natural and managed systems to climate change.
• Documented evidence on adaptation to regional
climate trends just emerging
Post-AR4: Closing the loop between mitigation and impacts
(Parry, et al., Nature Reviews Climate Change, 2008)
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IPCC Fifth Assessment Report (AR5)
Further guidance by IPCC-30 – March/April 2009
Scoping meeting(s) – 2009
Approval of outline by IPCC-31 – end 2009/early 2010
Finalization of WG I Report – early 2013
Finalization of Reports by Working Groups II and III –
2014
6. Finalization of the Synthesis report – 2014
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3.
4.
5.
• Start planning for SYR earlier in the process
Timetable determined by work on new scenarios carried
out by scientific community to enable significant use of the
new scenarios in developing the AR5
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The new IPCC Bureau and TFB
Elected on 4 September for AR5 Period
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New scenarios development process –
parallel vs. sequential approach
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New scenarios development process –
interactions for scenario development
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Product
Phase
Product 1:
Representative
Prep. Phase
Concentration
Pathways (RCPs)
Time to
Produce
Short Description
12
months
Four RCPs will be produced and include time paths for
emissions and concentrations of the full suite of greenhouse
gases, aerosols, and chemically active gases, as well as land
use/land cover (see Table A1.1). Extension of RCPs to 2300 a
research issue.
Product 2:
Climate Model
Ensembles and
Pattern Scaling
Parallel
Phase
<24
months
The long-term scenarios are expected to be run at
approximately 2° resolution, while the near-term scenarios
may have higher (0.5° to 1°) resolution. Pattern scaling a
research challenge.
Product 3: New
IAM Scenarios
Parallel
Phase
24
months
New socio-economic and emissions scenarios developed by
the IAM community (with the IAV community).
Product 4: Global
Narrative
Storylines
Parallel
Phase
24
months
Detailed descriptions of assumptions associated with the four
RCPs and new scenarios to encourage coordination across
finer scale work at regional scale. This remains a key research
issue.
Product 5:
Integrated
Scenarios
Integration
Phase
18
months
Synthesis of IAM, CM, and IAV work, including incorporation
of feedbacks. Also still recognized as a research challenge.
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New scenarios development process
and indicative AR5 timeline
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
AR5 Scoping
WG I
WG II
WG III
SYR
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AR5 scope – some key questions
• Future changes in climate, impacts and socio
economic conditions based on new scenarios
• Economics of vulnerability and adaptation
• Development of a regional approach in complement to
the global approach, particularly in assessing the
impacts and vulnerability
• Coordinated treatment of adaptation and mitigation
within an integrated sustainable development strategy
• Regional knowledge on adaptation and mitigation
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Specific suggestions for
Special Reports or AR5 Focus
• Abrupt changes in the climate system
• Synergy with other environmental conventions and SD
• Adaptation, including an assessment of current
practice
• Specific regional or sub-regional IAV assessments
including coastal areas, deltas and SIDS
• Effectiveness of mitigation measures, including
emissions trading
• Sectoral assessments addressing technology,
renewable energy and energy efficiency; lifestyle and
consumption patters, forests and deforestation; water;
health; transport
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Other planned or potential IPCC outputs
 Special Report on Renewable Energy sources
• LA selection ongoing, first LA meeting January 2009,
• Report to be finalized end of 2010
? Special Report on Special Report on managing risks of extreme
events to advance climate change adaptation
• Scoping meeting to be held early 2009
• IPCC-30 will decide on SR or integration in AR5
? Methodology work on alternative common metrics to calculate
the CO2 equivalence of anthropogenic emissions
• Expert meeting planned to advise on next steps
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IPCC Task Group on Data and Scenario Support for
Impacts and Climate Analysis
TGICA
• facilitates wide availability of climate change related data and scenarios
relevant to impacts, adaptation, vulnerability, and mitigation
research,
• Manages the Data Distribution Center (DDC)
• and contributes to building capacity in the use of data and
scenarios for climate related research
DDC provides
• data sets (climatological baselines, observations, other
environmental, technological, and socio-economic factors)
• climate and other scenarios
• other materials (e.g., technical guidelines on use of scenarios)
Next Meeting of TGICA 19-21 Nov 2008 in Geneva
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