Transcript Transition to EBM M. Fogarty D. Mountain J. Marrari. M Keister A

Transition to EBM
M. Fogarty
D. Mountain
J. Marrari
M Keister
A Chaudhuri
J. Steele
D. Haidvogel
L. Botsford
H. Wang
J. Phinney
Z. Powell
Key Areas where GLOBEC can
Make Contributions to
Management
• Near Term Application to Current
Management
– Recruitment Models incorporating
mechanistic understanding of climate
influences
– Application of hydrodynamic models to inform
tactical management strategies (MPAs)
-- Indicators of near-term population change
Key Areas where GLOBEC can
Make Contributions to
Management
• Future Contributions to Ecosystem-Based
Management
– Contributions to understanding and modeling
of bottom-up forcing in exploited marine
ecosystems
– Application of hydrodynamic models to
understand impacts on nutrient and lower
trophic level dynamics
-- Indicators of future ecosystem change
Recruitment Models incorporating mechanistic
understanding of climate influences
•Focus on low frequency environmental forcing
related to climate change
•Key Issue is defining the risk of population
collapse
– directly related to slope of recruitment curve
at the origin
•GLOBEC process studies allow us to go beyond
correlative approaches
•Incorporate these recruitment models into agestructured harvesting models
Application of hydrodynamic
models to understand impacts on
nutrient and lower trophic level
dynamics
• Can we predict upwelling dynamics under
climate change
-- critical issue in all our study regions
• Can we predict timing and strength of
stratification under climate change
– Implications for nutrient regeneration
Indicators of near-term population
change
• GLOBEC Broad-Scale/Long Term
Observations can be used to detect
changes in key ecosystem features
affecting recruitment of target species
– Traffic light representation of Salmon in the
California Current
– Need to compile list of candidate indicators
Application of hydrodynamic models to inform
tactical management strategies (MPAs)
•Particle tracking capabilities of GLOBEC
numerical hydrodynamic models can be directly
used to examine retention and dispersal of
eggs/larvae from marine protected areas
-- Implications for sustainability of MPAs
-- Source-Sink Dynamics
-- Implications for networks of marine
reserves (connectivity and resilience)
Contributions to understanding and
modeling of bottom-up forcing in
exploited marine ecosystems
• End to end models now under
development for all four GLOBEC study
regions can be directly used for this
purpose
– Georges Bank work has already been used to
illustrate how this might be done
Indicators of future ecosystem
change
• Assemble suite of ecosystem indicators
from GLOBEC observation programs
• Traffic light representation of ecosystem
change
• Application to DPSIR Framework