Transcript Saleemul Huq - global change SysTem for Analysis, Research

Adaptation to Climate Change
and Sustainable Development: A
Case study of Bangladesh
Dr. Saleemul Huq
Director
Climate Change Programme
International Institute for Environment and
Development, London, United Kingdom
Bangladesh: Climate Change and
Sustainable Development Study
• Carried out in 2000 by Bangladeshi and
international team
• Based on previous work done on assessing
vulnerability of Bangladesh to climate
change impacts
• Two climate change and sea level scenarios
chosen for 2030 and 2050
Objectives of the study
• What are the expected climate changes?
• What are the consequences for Bangladesh?
• For what climate change-induced impacts is
Bangladesh most vulnerable?
• How can the potential effects of climate
change be factored into policy making, and
what adaptation measures for Bangladesh
are most feasible?
Sectors chosen
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Coastal resources
Fresh Water resources
Agriculture
Human health
Ecosystem and biodiversity
Factors Increasing Bangladesh’s Vulnerability to Climate Change
Geography
Most elevations under 10m
Climate
Subject to severe natural disasters
Population
1998 population 126 million. High growth rate
and population density
Economy
One of the world’s poorest nations. 1999
GNP/capita: $370
Education
Literacy rate of 53%
Human
Health
Life expectancy: 58 years. 56% under 5
malnourished
Factors Increasing Bangladesh’s Vulnerability to Climate Change
Geography
Most elevations under 10m
Climate
Subject to severe natural disasters
Population
1998 population 126 million. High growth rate
and population density
Economy
One of the world’s poorest nations. 1999
GNP/capita: $370
Education
Literacy rate of 53%
Human
Health
Life expectancy: 58 years. 56% under 5
malnourished
Climate Change Scenarios
Year
Sea Level Rise
(cm)
Temperature Increase
(ºC)
Precipitation
Fluctuation Compared
to 1990 (%)
2030
30
+0.7 in monsoon; +1.3
in winter
-3 in winter; + 11 in
monsoon
2050
50
+1.1 in monsoon; +1.8
in winter
-37 in winter; + 28 in
monsoon
Adaptation Measures to Mitigate Drainage Congestion in Coastal Areas
Key Impacts and Measures
Current State of Implementation &
Requirements for Improvement
Physical adaptations
Increasing infrastructure drainage
capacity
Some bridges and culverts are poorly designed.
Water and road infrastructure lacks maintenance
Tidal basins
New concept: early results are promising
Institutional Adaptations
Proper O&M arrangements,
including establishment of local
water management
Poor institutional framework. Local government
needs to be involved
Design criteria for drainage
capacity infrastructure
Poorly designed and implemented. May be
ineffective in coastal zones
Adaptation Measures to Mitigate Salinization in Coastal Areas
Key Impacts and Measures
Current State of Implementation &
Requirements for Improvement
Physical adaptations
Resuscitation of river networks
Could be meaningful in short-term, especially in
south-west
Surface water flow from upstream
e.g. by diversion or withdrawal
from rivers
Capital intensive, but cross-dams could prevent
saline water intrusion. Process should include
EIA/SIA
Institutional Adaptations
Operation of sluices and regulators
Poor existing management
Water saving techniques
Not applied at maximum capacity. Could pose
socio-economic problems to farmers
Adaptation Measures to Improve Morphological Dynamics in Coastal Areas
Key Impacts and Measures
Current State of Implementation &
Requirements for Improvement
Physical adaptations
Mangrove greenbelts
Started. Needs re-evaluation and continuation
Cross dams
Needs-assessment necessary for new dams. Adverse
effects elsewhere. Could be expensive
Institutional Adaptations
Protection of mangroves and coastal
wetlands
Evaluation of activities needed, especially regarding
maximizing social benefits
Land tenure laws
Evaluation needed
Adaptation Measures for Disasters in Coastal Areas
Key Impacts and Measures
Current State of Implementation &
Requirements for Improvement
Physical adaptations
Cyclone shelters
Already proven. Highly socially acceptable
Mangrove greenbelts
Started. Needs evaluation
Institutional Adaptations
Forecasting and dissemination
Flood and cyclone forecasting should be location
specific
Involvement of CBOs and
volunteers
Should continue
Adaptation Measures to Mitigate Reduced Freshwater Availability
Key Risks and Adaptation
Measures
Current State of Implementation &
Requirements for Improvement
Physical adaptations
Increasing drainage capacity of
infrastructure
Some bridge and culverts poorly designed. Water
and road infrastructure lacks maintenance
Storage
Not evaluated in terms of recharging aquifers
Institutional Adaptations
Guidelines to incorporate CC in
long-term planning
Not existing
Reduction of water demand
Need better policies on extraction, paying for use,
promoting efficient use
Adaptation Measures for Freshwater Drainage Congestion
Key Risks and Adaptation
Measures
Current State of Implementation &
Requirements for Improvement
Physical adaptations
Sufficient road drainage capacity
Poorly designed and maintained infrastructure
Controlled sedimentation and
Land-fills
New concepts. Need more understanding
Institutional Adaptations
Improved drainage criteria
infrastructure
Not tried yet
Participatory management of
water resources infrastructure
Needs adequate policy reforms
Adaptation Measures to Morphological Dynamics for Freshwater Resources
Key Risks and Adaptation
Measures
Current State of Implementation &
Requirements for Improvement
Physical adaptations
River training and bank protection
Poorly done. Costly, but river bank protection is
high priority
Dredging of navigation channels
Limited coverage
Institutional Adaptations
Guidelines to incorporate CC in
long-term planning
Not existing
Improved monitoring and forecast
of changes
Needs capacity enhancement
Adaptation Measures to Increased Freshwater Flooding
Key Risks and Adaptation
Measures
Current State of Implementation &
Requirements for Improvement
Physical adaptations
Elevated land as flood refuge or
food shelters
Practiced throughout the country
Flood refuge areas e.g. Dhaka city
itself
Needs evaluation
Institutional Adaptations
Improved flood warning and
forecasting
Proved effective. Needs more cooperation and to
be location specific
Evacuation of vulnerable people
and valuables
Limited capacity exists. Costly, especially for the
very poor
Adaptation Measures in Agriculture
Adaptation Measures
Current State of Implementation &
Requirements for Improvement
Physical adaptations
Improved irrigation efficiency
Poor. Needs institutional support
Crop diversification
Efforts have met with limited success
Institutional Adaptations
Training programmes and
dissemination
Dissemination is poor. Activities need enhancing
Research and development of new
(salinity and drought resistant)
crops
Research needs enhancing
Adaptation Measures in Human Health
Adaptation Measures
Current State of Implementation &
Requirements for Improvement
Physical adaptations
Water treatment facilities
Low coverage. Poor quality. Needs expanding
Improved sanitation
Coverage increasing
Institutional Adaptations
Surveillance and monitoring of
conditions favourable for disease
outbreak
Unsatisfactory. Needs co-ordination with media to
issue early warnings
Improve public education,
especially in reproductive health
Coverage increasing. Quality needs improvement
Adaptation Measures to Protect Ecosystems and Biodiversity
Adaptation Measures
Current State of Implementation &
Requirements for Improvement
Integrated ecosystem planning and
management
Not yet practiced. Proposed Coastal Zone
Development Program could be a vehicle for this
Management of protected areas and
14 ecologically critical areas
Improved understanding needed
Coastal greenbelt
Recently started. Promising results
Agro-forestry development
Ongoing programs need expansion
Main impacts of climate change
• Drainage congestions due to higher sea
levels and and flooding
• Reduced fresh water availability
• Disturbances to morphological processes
(mainly in coastal zone)
• Increased intensity of disasters (extreme
events)
Methodological Issues Addressed
• Choosing climate change and sea level rise
scenarios
• Modelling impacts of chosen climate
change scenarios on droughts, floods,
cyclones
• Identifying possible adaptations
• Prioritising adaptation actions
Process of study
• Analysis of climate change impacts using
scenarios and models
• Identification of most vulnerable sectors
• Identification of possible adaptation actions and
measures in each sector
• Stakeholder–led prioritisation of adaptation
actions in each sector
• Cross-sectoral linkages identified and discussed
with stakeholders
Key findings of the study
• Bangladesh faces grave socio-ecological risks if it
fails to adapt to climate change
• Many of the risks are gradual and difficult to
differentiate from background variability of
climate
• Coastal areas of the country are specially at risk
• Adaptation to climate change is fundamentally
linked to sustainable development efforts of the
country
Relevance to ongoing policies
and programmes
• National Water Policy and Water
Management Plan
• Coastal Zone Management Programme
• National Agriculture Development Plan
• National Biodiversity Action Plan
• Sustainable Environmental Management
Programme
Impact on Policy makers-1
• Sectoral level
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Water Resources
Coastal Resources
Biodiversity
Agriculture
Environment
Impact on Policy makers-2
• National Level
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Planning
Finance
Foreign Affairs
Prime Minister’s office
Impacts on Policy makers-3
• International
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COP 5, 6 and 7
LDC group
Adaptation issues
COP 8 (Delhi)
Lessons learned
• Technical capacity to do analysis of climate
change impacts- Good
• Awareness amongst sectoral planners and
policy makers-Reasonable
• Awareness amongst national policy makersLow
• Strategy for international negotiations-None
yet