Transcript Water-sum-school2008[1] - Graduate Institute of International

Water Asymmetries, Climate Change and Conflict
URS LUTERBACHER
4/1/2016
Preamble
 Water, even in the form of fresh water is globally
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relatively abundant and constant in mass
There are however huge regional disparities in terms
of its availability
The water situation can be serious in arid and semi
arid regions of the globe and lead to competition in
different sectors
More than 70% is used for irrigation, over 90% is
semi arid and arid areas
The current boom in agricultural prices could
aggravate this situation
Source: People and Ecosystems. Washington DC, USA 2000
Freshwater Withdrawal by Sector (2000)
Mountain Regions are Usually Abundant
Sources of Water
 However asymmetries are often present in terms of
access to the resource due either to geography or to
strong social inequalities
 Climate change and low latitude or close to the
equator glacier melt could aggravate these
problems
 Thus mountain regions are also often sources of
conflicts internal and international
Example of an Internal Conflict:
Nepal
 Since the mid 1990’s a Maoist guerrilla has initiated
a civil war
 The Nepalese monarchy in charge of governing has
during the same time witnessed a period of
instability
 It became increasingly authoritarian until recently
when it had to agree to relinquish power under
pressure from both a democratic opposition and the
Maoist guerrilla and was actually terminated as an
institution
Illustration of the Conflict
Fatalities (Source ISS)
6000
5000
4000
3000
2000
1000
IISS
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
1999
1998
1997
1996
0
INSEC
Government forces have progressively increased to about to 130 000 whereas
Maoists can count on 200 000 sympathizers
This situation gets clearer when one takes
into account
 84% of the population is rural and lives from
agriculture
 Access to water has been going down dramatically
for significant segments of the population
Water Availability over Time in Nepal
(Source FAO)
Water resources: total internal per capita (m3/inhab/yr)
25000
20000
15000
10000
5000
0
1958-1962
1963-1967
1968-1972
1973-1977
1978-1982
1983-1987
1988-1992
1993-1997
1998-2002
2003-2007
Water Conflicts Have Also International
Dimensions
 In the Middle East
 In Central Asia
 In Africa
 In East Asia and North America
 Illustration with 2 Cases
Example: The Nile River
Asymmetric access to river water:
Euphrates river basin and Central Asia
 Asymmetric access to water resources is characteristic of
mountain regions where water originates: 2 regions
 Middle East
 Central Asia: Dispute upstream countries, downstream
countries over Soviet inherited water allocations: Here
reversed situation, downstream countries are more
powerful
Climate Change Predictions Middle East
Theory: Water Allocation is part of the "Common" or
free Access Problem studied by Dasgupta and Heal
 Open access generally leads to inefficiencies and
overuse of resources
 The problem can be compounded by asymmetries
between different users or producers
 Commons Problems can usually be solved with a
taxation system leading to a tax equilibrium or a
property rights system: standard solutions
Instruments of solution
Taxation
Market for externalities
solution
Theory: Symmetry and Asymmetries
 Standard solutions often don’t work
 They can add to the problem if for instance
property rights have initially been distributed in
a way that leads to inefficiencies
 They will then often lead to conflict and
credibility problems
However preexisting property
arrangements might make this difficult
Credibility Issues: Perfect and imperfect
Information
 Paradoxically in a sequential bargaining process the
lack of knowledge of the opponent’s real intentions
can lead to prudence and keep the other side prudent
as well (risk averse)
 It can thus lead to the emergence of equilibria which
can lead to cooperative outcomes
 It is best if such outcomes are backed by
international institutional settings
Central Asia
Central Asia has Good Water Resources
from Mountains and Glaciers
 Example: Kyrgyzstan Petrov Glacier, Ak-Shyrak Range
Alt: 3800 m
Water Use leads here to major inefficiencies
 Water is wasted for cotton production in areas
otherwise not suited for this culture
 It is provided for free most often so no incentive to
preserve it
 32,000 km of Canals, poorly maintained and full of
leaks
 Karakoum canal: 1,340 km open air in the
Turkmenistan Desert
These lead to transboundary conflicts on
allocations
 Countries are constrained by a water quota system
dating back to the Soviet Era
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The Almaty Agreement (1992)
Some extensions and revisions in different years especially
in (1998: exact amount of energy to be exported)
Under the system Kyrgyzstan gets only 10% of the waters of
the Syr Daria basin
This prohibits the use of major developments in power
generation
 Any attempts to retain more water has lead to
retaliations by down-stream countries
 Interruption of fossil fuel deliveries
Conflict is the most inefficient form of
environmental management: Can we do better?
 Project: an attempt at proposing solutions
 Such solutions have to enhance efficiency
 All regions have to profit
Potential of Kyrgyzstan
 Kyrgyzstan generates an annual total flow of about
51 km3
 This flow could increase by 10 % under projected
climate change through precipitations and glacier
melt
 Hydropower could extend to 150 billion kwh if
potential fully used
Basic Economic Trends:
Value Added:Value added is the net output of a sector after
adding up all outputs and subtracting intermediate inputs. It
is calculated without making deductions for depreciation of
fabricated assets or depletion and degradation of natural
resources.
Value Added in Industry: (Source: World Bank)
Value Added in Industry in Billions (Constant 1995 USD)
18
16
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
Kazakhstan
Kyrgyz Republic
Uzbekistan
2000
1999
1998
1997
1996
1995
1994
1993
1992
1991
1990
0
Value Added in Agriculture
Value Added in Agriculture in billions (Constant 1995 USD)
5
4
3
2
1
Kazakhstan
Kyrgyz Republic
Uzbekistan
2000
1999
1998
1997
1996
1995
1994
1993
1992
1991
1990
0
Solution to Conflict
 Is it possible to improve the welfare of the whole
region: Kyrgyzstan +Kazakhstan +Uzbekistan?
 Yes, by letting Kyrgyzstan use its full hydroelectric
potential and export it cheaply to the region
 Kyrgyzstan with 150 billion kwh potential can
produce more than enough for the region: In 2000,
entire production of Kyrgyzstan +Kazakhstan
+Uzbekistan= 106 billions
 Tadjikistan has almost the same potential, so 300
billion kwh would be available !
Kyrgyz production can use high altitude areas with
low population densities:
Population (People per Sq Km)
0-2
3 - 10
11 - 20
21 - 50
51 - 100
101 - 200
201 - 500
501 - 1000
>1000
Kyrgyzstan can make use of high altitude dams
 They can advantageously replace fossil fuel facilities
 They can adapt instantaneously to demand and
intervene in times where spot prices are high
 But are they advantageous for the whole region?
 Answer with the help of a numerical model
Electricity Spot Prices in Europe:
German and Dutch Market: Spot Prices
January 2001 – April 2002
Yes: Expanded production can improve total value added for
the three countries! This solution presents however the
credibility problems mentioned
Central Asia: Total Value Added
1.8E+10
1.6E+10
Constant 1995 $
1.4E+10
1.2E+10
1.0E+10
8.0E+09
6.0E+09
Calculated Value Added
4.0E+09
Real Total Added Value
2.0E+09
Total Value Added with Total Potential Kyrgyz Hydropower
0.0E+00
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
Strategic Implications
 What are the implications of this finding and which
strategies concretely should the decision makers apply
?
 Decision maker 1 should offer a contract to decision
maker 2 guaranteeing a share of his gains to her
 The credibility problem could be lifted on the one hand
if Decision maker 1 does not act too aggressively thus
keeping 2 risk averse and on the other if the contract is
guaranteed by a third party like an international
institution.