Transcript Nature of decision makers` interaction with scientists

Supporting Decisions on Climate Change
William Hohenstein
Global Change Program Office
May 18, 2005
What is Decision Support?
“…the set of processes that includes
interdisciplinary research, product development,
communication, and operational services that
provide timely and useful information to address
challenges and questions confronting those who
need to make policy and/or resource
management decisions…there is typically a
premium on timeliness, resolution,
comprehensiveness and effective communication
of levels of scientific confidence and uncertainty.”
- CCSP Strategic Plan,
2003
Types of Decision Support
 Scientific syntheses and assessments
 Tools for adaptive management for resources
and infrastructure
 Support for policymaking
Scientific syntheses and assessments
 Attributes
 Formal
 Comprehensive
 Peer reviewed
 Detailed
 Long-term
 Examples
 IPCC assessments and reports
 The 2000 U.S. National Assessment
 The Climate Change Science Program 21 synthesis and
assessment reports
Tools for adaptive management for resources
and infrastructure
 Attributes
 Response to specific management decisions
 Tend to be quantitative
 Documentation and peer review vary
 Formality varies
 Examples
 Greenhouse gas calculators
 Energy audits
 Water models
 GCMs
Support for policymaking
 Attributes
 Short timeframes
 Response to specific questions
 Often informal
 Not always well documented
 Draws heavily on S&A and tools
 Not always transparent – at least initially
 Examples
 Economic modeling to support negotiations
 Briefings
 Development of rules and legislation
Guidance in Providing Decision Support
 Analyses structured around specific
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questions
Early and continuing involvement of
stakeholders
Explicit treatment of uncertainties
Transparent public review of analysis
questions, methods, and draft results
Evaluate ongoing analyses and build on
lessons learned