Transcript PPT, 13.4 MB

Climate change and biodiversity:
Developing tools for assessing
impacts and their implications for
conservation
Guy Midgley, Mike Rutherford, Greg Hughes
National Botanical Institute, Cape Town
With acknowledgements: Paul Williams, London Nat Hist Mus
Conservation investment
Step 3
1631 protected areas +
22 min-transformation areas
d: irreplaceable
ange: higher cost alternatives exist
een: fully flexible alternatives exist
nimum-transformation set of areas
represent species refugia unrepresented within
network of one-minute grid cells (in grey)
nsidered to have adequate existing protection
Conservation investment
Step 3
1631 protected areas +
22 min-transformation areas
red: irreplaceable
orange: higher cost alternatives exist
green: fully flexible alternatives exist
minimum-transformation set of areas
to represent species refugia unrepresented within
the network of one-minute grid cells (in grey)
considered to have adequate existing protection
Conserve species under natural conditions
Conserve ecosystems and their natural processes
Conserve habitats for maintaining biodiversity
Maintain key processes (eg water yield)
Support tourism and ecotourism
Support livelihoods (eg wildflower, medicinal)
Support commercial agri-business
Conservation investment
Step 3
1631 protected areas +
22 min-transformation areas
red: irreplaceable
orange: higher cost alternatives exist
green: fully flexible alternatives exist
minimum-transformation set of areas
to represent species refugia unrepresented within
the network of one-minute grid cells (in grey)
considered to have adequate existing protection
Protected Areas often selected ad hoc,
developed before good species data were available,
on land not wanted or less valuable
Biodiversity no longer static, but dynamic!
We address two main problems
• How to predict climate change impacts on
ecosystems and species (biodiversity)
• How to assess ability of conservation
strategies (current PA network) to cope with
these impacts
Bioclimatic modeling method
Species
distribution
34o
36o
Environmental
variables
Bioclimatic modeling method
Species
distribution
# records
34o
Max temp envelope
36o
Environmental
variables
34o
36o
Maximum temperature
Automated methods
Species data
Access
Climate data
Grads
Data matching
Arcview
Statistical model
SPlus
Future projection
risk assessment
Protea Atlas database (NBI)
330 species (Proteaceae), ~ 40 000 localities
HadCM2
Overall threat of climate change to
Proteaceae diversity
Fynbos Biome distribution: current and future
Lowland species
Montane species
Leucospermum tomentosum distribution: current and ~2050
(HadCM2 excluding sulphates)
Protea lacticolor distribution: current and future
(HadCM2 excluding sulphates)
20 km
contract
(highest risk)
persist
(safe) colonize
(high risk)
Displacement risk = 1 – persist/current
Proteaceae - displacement risk
Risk of displacement
1
y = 0.8736e-0.0003x
0.8
R2 = 0.48
0.6
0.4
0.2
0
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
Present Range Size (km2)
10000
contract
(highest risk)
persist
(safe) colonize
(high risk)
Extinction risk proportional to range loss
(with and without dispersal)
Uncertainties
Climate scenarios
Spatial climate data (historic, current)
Species distribution data
Bioclimatic modelling approach
Human land use
Dispersal and establishment
Ant-dispersal
Wind-dispersal
Knowledge about dispersal syndromes is critical
Range size changes (HadCM2)
(~250 Proteaceae, 2000 to ~2050)
Range size (1'x1' pixels)
2500
2000
1500
1000
500
0
current
2050 dispersal
2050 no dispersal
Automated methods
Species data
Access
Climate data
Grads
Data matching
Arcview
Statistical model
Future projection
risk assessment
Dynamic range
modelling method
SPlus
Simple range
shift assumptions
Protected area
risk analysis
Time-slice models
2000
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
(se scop)
Richness of dispersal pathways for the 18
species that are committed to migration
Human land use,
intensity of transformation
Dispersal pathways
Automated methods
Species data
Access
Climate data
Grads
Data matching
Arcview
Statistical model
Future projection
risk assessment
Dynamic range
modelling method
SPlus
Simple range
shift assumptions
Protected area
risk analysis