IPCC Good Practice Guidance
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Transcript IPCC Good Practice Guidance
INTERGOVERNMENTAL PANEL ON CLIMATE CHANGE
NATIONAL GREENHOUSE GAS INVENTORIES PROGRAMME
UNEP
WMO
IPCC Good Practice Guidance
Simon Eggleston
Technical Support Unit
National Greenhouse Gas Inventory Programme
IPCC
National Systems
Should be designed and operated to enable
Parties included in Annex 1 to consistently
estimate anthropogenic emission by all sources
and removals by all sinks of all GHGs, as covered
by the Revised 1996 IPCC Guidelines for
National Greenhouse Gas Inventories and IPCC
good practice guidance, in accordance with
relevant decisions of the COP and/or COP/MOP
– FCCC/CP/2001/13/Add13, Decision 20.CP.7 Annex 1 Art 9
Technical Support Unit, National Greenhouse Gas Inventory Programme, IPCC
What are the IPCC Guidelines?
Revised 1996 IPCC Guidelines for
National Greenhouse Gas Inventories (3
Volumes)
Good Practice Guidance and Uncertainty
Management in National greenhouse Gas
Inventories (2000)
Good Practice Guidance for Land Use,
Land-Use Change and Forestry (2003)
Technical Support Unit, National Greenhouse Gas Inventory Programme, IPCC
What is Good Practice?
Assists countries in producing inventories
that are accurate in the sense of being
neither over nor underestimates so far as
can be judged, and in which uncertainties
are reduced as far as possible
Gives a way to manage uncertainties
Technical Support Unit, National Greenhouse Gas Inventory Programme, IPCC
Good Practice…
Supports the development of inventories that
are:
Transparent
Documented
Consistent over time
Complete
Comparable
Assessed for uncertainties
Subject to quality control and assurance
Efficient in the use of resources available to inventory
agencies
In which uncertainties are gradually reduced as better
information becomes available
Technical Support Unit, National Greenhouse Gas Inventory Programme, IPCC
INTERGOVERNMENTAL PANEL ON CLIMATE CHANGE
NATIONAL GREENHOUSE GAS INVENTORIES PROGRAMME
UNEP
WMO
Key Source Analysis &
Methodological Choice
What is it and why is it
important?
Key Source Analysis
Identifies sources with significant impact on
total emissions or trend
The largest accounting for 95% of emissions are
“KEY SOURCES”
Not include LULUCF
Additional qualitative criteria as well
Assessment of trend as well
Can also include uncertainty information
Suggested aggregation of sectors in guidance
Expect this to identify 10-20 sources
Technical Support Unit, National Greenhouse Gas Inventory Programme, IPCC
Key Source Analysis
Outcomes
Higher tier methodologies should be used for Key
Sectors
Additional attention to QA/QC of key sources
Resources are focused on sources with significant
impact on total emission estimate
Best use of available resources
Reduce uncertainties as much as practical
Key Category analysis for LULUCF
Similar to Key Sector including LULUCF
Do as well as Key Source
Technical Support Unit, National Greenhouse Gas Inventory Programme, IPCC
Methodological Choice
START
Guided by Key source
analysis
Decision trees in GPG
2000 and 2003
Tier 1 are simple methods
with default values
Tier 2 are similar but
with country specific
emission factors and
other data
Tier 3 are more complex
approaches, possibly
models. However should
be compatible with lower
tiers.
Box 1: Tier 3
Country
Specific1 Data
Available
Yes
No
Fuel Statistics
by Locmotive
type?
Calculate
Emission using
detailled model
and factors
Box 2: Tier 2
Yes
Calculate
Emission using Eq
3.4.2
Yes
Estimate Fuel
Cousumption by
Locomotive type
No
Is this a Key
Source?
No
Calcultate
Emission using Eq
3.4.1
Box 1: Tier 1
Technical Support Unit, National Greenhouse Gas Inventory Programme, IPCC
Data Needs
Again GPG 2000 and 2003 give guidance
on
activity data needed for different tiers
QA/QC of data
Checking
Documentation requirements
Aim should be data that is
representative, reliable and consistent
over time
Technical Support Unit, National Greenhouse Gas Inventory Programme, IPCC
INTERGOVERNMENTAL PANEL ON CLIMATE CHANGE
NATIONAL GREENHOUSE GAS INVENTORIES PROGRAMME
UNEP
WMO
Uncertainty Evaluations
Causes of uncertainty and how
to deal with it
Uncertainty Evaluation
An essential part of an inventory
Helps prioritise efforts to improve accuracy
Guide decisions on methodological choice
Most inventories and sources are reasonably reliable
HOWEVER some sources may be order of magnitude
estimates
Difficult or impossible to quantify and completely
characterise all inventory uncertainties
Pragmatic approach - Use best available data and
expert judgement
Technical Support Unit, National Greenhouse Gas Inventory Programme, IPCC
Probability Density
1.5
1
CDF
PDF
1.0
95% Probability
Range
0.8
0.6
0.4
0.5
0.2
0.0
0
0
1
2
Example Emission Rate
3
Need uncertainties in all parameters used,
preferably need pdf as well (activity data AND
emission factors)
Use 95% confidence interval
These need to be documented, reviewed and used to
estimate total inventory uncertainty
Technical Support Unit, National Greenhouse Gas Inventory Programme, IPCC
Cumulative Probability`
Uncertainties
Sources of Uncertainty Estimates
Measurement errors
Uncertainties in factors
Use of Statistics
Application of emission factors
Representivity (or lack of it!)
Expert Judgement – expert elicitation
Models – applicability
Technical Support Unit, National Greenhouse Gas Inventory Programme, IPCC
INTERGOVERNMENTAL PANEL ON CLIMATE CHANGE
NATIONAL GREENHOUSE GAS INVENTORIES PROGRAMME
UNEP
WMO
Recalculations
What to do if consistent time
series methodology not possible
Recalculations
Why?
Available data changed
Previous method not good practice
A source category has become key
Cannot transparently reflect mitigation
Inventory capacity increased
New methods become available
New sources identified
Errors corrected
Technical Support Unit, National Greenhouse Gas Inventory Programme, IPCC
Recalculations
Good practice to use same method and
consistent data for all years
If not possible:
Try new methods to get data
Splicing
Overlap (best)
Surrogate
Interpolation
Trend Extrapolation
Documentation!
Technical Support Unit, National Greenhouse Gas Inventory Programme, IPCC
INTERGOVERNMENTAL PANEL ON CLIMATE CHANGE
NATIONAL GREENHOUSE GAS INVENTORIES PROGRAMME
UNEP
WMO
QA/QC
What, Why and How?
Quality Control
is a system of routine technical activities, to
measure and control the quality of the inventory
as it is being developed. The QC system is
designed to:
Provide routine and consistent checks to ensure data
integrity, correctness, and completeness;
Identify and address errors and omissions;
Document and archive inventory material and record all
QC activities.
Technical Support Unit, National Greenhouse Gas Inventory Programme, IPCC
Quality Assurance
Quality Assurance (QA) activities include a
planned system of review procedures conducted
by personnel not directly involved in the
inventory compilation/ development process.
Reviews, preferably by independent third
parties, should be performed upon a finalised
inventory following the implementation of QC
procedures.
Technical Support Unit, National Greenhouse Gas Inventory Programme, IPCC
QA/QC – Major Elements
An inventory agency responsible for coordinating
QA/QC activities;
A QA/QC plan;
General QC procedures (Tier 1);
Source category-specific QC procedures (Tier
2);
QA review procedures;
Reporting, documentation, and archiving
procedures.
Technical Support Unit, National Greenhouse Gas Inventory Programme, IPCC
Quality Control (Tier 1)
Check assumptions and selection of data are documented
Check for transcription errors and references
Check units and conversion factors
Check integrity of database files
Check data consistency between sources
Check movement of data between steps correct
Check uncertainties are estimated correctly
Undertake review of documentation
Check recalculations
Make completeness checks
Compare estimates to previous ones
Technical Support Unit, National Greenhouse Gas Inventory Programme, IPCC
Quality Control (Tier 2)
Focus on key sources
Where used check if IPCC defaults appropriate
QA/QC of country specific factors
QA/QC of direct emissions
Emission comparisons
Order of magnitude checks
Reference calculations
QA/QC of national data from secondary sources
QC of uncertainty estimates
Technical Support Unit, National Greenhouse Gas Inventory Programme, IPCC
INTERGOVERNMENTAL PANEL ON CLIMATE CHANGE
NATIONAL GREENHOUSE GAS INVENTORIES PROGRAMME
UNEP
WMO
Review and Documentation
Critical Steps
Review (not UNFCCC!)
Expert peer review
By relevant technical experts
Not and Audit
Can be supplemented by stakeholder review and
public review mechanisms
Document review and inventory response
Audits
Check compliance with minimum QC specifications and
QC plan
Check both Inventory QC and source specific QC
Can occur at various stages in inventory development
Technical Support Unit, National Greenhouse Gas Inventory Programme, IPCC
Documentation
Assumptions and criteria for selection of activity data and emission
factors;
Emission factors used, including references;
Activity data or sufficient information to it to be traced to the
referenced source;
Information on the uncertainty associated with activity data and emission
factors;
Rationale for choice of methods;
Methods used, including those used to estimate uncertainty;
Changes in data inputs or methods from previous years;
Individuals providing expert judgement for uncertainty estimates;
Databases or software used and any information required for their use;
Worksheets and interim calculations for source category estimates and
aggregated estimates and any recalculations of previous estimates;
Final inventory report and any analysis of trends from previous years;
QA/QC plans and outcomes of QA/QC procedures.
Technical Support Unit, National Greenhouse Gas Inventory Programme, IPCC
Conclusions
IPCC Good Practice Guidance
Key Source analysis and Methodological
Choice
Uncertainty evaluations
Recalculations
Quality Control and Assurance
Review
Documentation
Technical Support Unit, National Greenhouse Gas Inventory Programme, IPCC