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Forest damage in a changing climate
Anna Maria Jönsson and Lars Bärring
Dept. of Physical Geography and Ecosystem Analysis
Geobiosphere Science Centre, Lund University
Ongoing activities within ENSEMBLES
Progression
Progression since
since November
November 2006
2006
1) Modelling the risk for frost damage to Norway spruce
Conference proceedings
Rammig, A Jönsson, A.M., Smith, B., Bärring, L., and Sykes, M. 2006: Projecting ecosystem response to climate
extremes. Proceedings of the German Ecological Society, Bremen, p.16.
Ongoing activities within ENSEMBLES
Progression
Progression since
since November
November 2006
2006
2) Modelling the temperature dependent development of the
spruce bark beetle Ips typographus
Publications and reports
Jönsson, A.M., Harding, S., Bärring, L. and Ravn, H.P. 200x: Impact of climate change on the population dynamics
of Ips typographus in southern Sweden. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology (accepted).
Jönsson A.M. 2007: Beräkning av den åttatandade granbarkborrens temperaturberoende svärmning och utveckling
år 2006. In: Svensson, L. Övervakning av insektsangrepp –Slutrapport från Skogsstyrelsens regeringsuppdrag.
Skogsstyrelsen Meddelanden 1:2007, pp. 98-100.
Jönsson A.M. 2007: Granbarkborren – en scenarioanalys för 2007-2008. Del 7: Scenarioberäkningar efter stormen
Per, januari 2007. Rapport till Skogsstyrelsen, Lund 2007-01-22
Supervision of graduate student Gustaf Appelberg, HT 2006. Degree thesis in Environmental Science 20p
“The impact of climate change on the temperature dependent swarming and development of the spruce bark beetle,
Ips typographus, in Sweden”
Ecosystem modelling of frost sensitivity
Acclimatisation of trees to seasonal fluctuations
of temperature on a daily basis
Physiological responses of trees to climate change
Research questions
 Increased risk of frost damage?
 Increased suceptibility for
drought damage and/or pathogen
attacks?
Ecosystem performance?
Modelling cold hardiness of Norway spruce
Site Farstanäs 17.5/59.1, Year 7
30
Temperature
Hardiness
Temperature (C)
20
10
0
-10
-20
Frost damage
-30
Dehardening
Hardening
-40
340
1
27
53
79
105
131
Days of year
157
183
209
Ecosystem modell LPJ-GUESS
ºC CO2
Daily climate data
• Photosynthesis
• Respiration
• Allocation
• Growth
Water flux
Carbon flux
Cold hardiness
?
Population dynamics
Establishment
Mortality
Preliminary results
Sensitivity analysis of frost hardiness model
The severity of frost events was affected by variations in the hardening rate, while changes in the
dehardening rate had no significant influence during current climate conditions.
Comparison between south and north of Sweden for the period of 1998 to 2005
Largest difference between modelled tree hardiness level and minimum temperature (south: 5°C,
north: 14°C). Sum of frost events (south: 100°C, north: 200°C), Number of frost events (south:
55, north: 70).
Correlation with observed crown defoliation (122 monitoring sites)
The sum of frost events (R2=0.2), including the impact of tree age (R2=0.3).
Performance of the ecosystem model LPJ-GUESS
correlation between of observed and simulated productivity (R2=0.14, p<0.01).
Improved degree of explanation by including frost damage modelling (R2=0.2, p<0.01)
Simulations with the RCA climate data
Decreased number of frost events in north Sweden. Increased number of extreme events with
lower intensity in south Sweden, potentially causing more damage to trees
Impact of climate change on temperature dependent
annual cycle of Ips typographus
Egg development
Spring swarming
>
Summer swarming?
Egg development?
Winter mortality
Almost 100% for not completely
developed bark beetles
First generation in mountainous areas of north Sweden
Impact dependent on migration of Norway spruce
1961-1990
1981-2010
2011-2040
2041-2070
2071-2100
A2
A1B
October
B2
July
Figure 6. The average day when the low temperature threshold for a fulfilled development of the first generation is
reached for five different periods: 1961-1990 (i), 1981-2010 (ii), 2011-2040 (iii), 2041-2070 (iv) and 2071-2100 (v),
A second generation will be initiated in the south part of Sweden
1961-1990
1981-2010
2011-2040
2041-2070
2071-2100
A2
A1B
October
B2
July
Figure 10. The average starting day for the early initiation of the second generation for five different periods: 19611990 (i), 1981-2010 (ii), 2011-2040 (iii), 2041-2070 (iv) and 2071-2100 (v), according to three different scenarios:
Frequency of completed development of
the second generation during the 30-year period
1961-1990
1981-2010
2011-2040
2041-2070
2071-2100
A2
A1B
30
B2
15
0
Figure 15. Number of years when the thermal sum calculated for the early initiation of the second generation
exceeds 625 d.d. in 30 years for five different periods: 1961-1990 (i), 1981-2010 (ii), 2011-2040 (iii), 2041-2070
(iv) and 2071-2100 (v), according to three different scenarios: A2, A1B and B2.
Temperature dependent swarming and development of
Ips typographus in 2006
Timing of
summer swarming
Timing of
spring swarming
October
September
August
July
June
May
X
X
Completed development
of second generation
Pilot studie: a seasonal prognosis of the temperature dependent
development of the first generation of Ips typographus
Prognostiserad uppnådd temperatursumma efter granbarkborrens vårsvärmning (median av 40 ensemble-medlemmar),
samt standardavvikelse mellan ensemble-medlemmar, per den 1, 15 och 31 juli år 2005-2007.
Seasonal prognosis of temperature sum after spring swarming
of Ips typographus according to 40 ensemble-members
Publications in preparation
Jönsson, A.M. et al. Warming up for spring frost damage in Europe.
(manuscript)
Rammig A., Jönsson A.M., Smith B., Bärring L., Sykes M. (in
prep). Simulating acclimatization of Norway spruce: Linking a cold
hardiness model to an ecosystem model.
Rammig A., Jönsson A.M., Smith B., Bärring L., Sykes M. (in
prep). Frost hardiness and impacts of extreme temperature
backlashes on Norway spruce in a changing climate.
Appelberg, G., Bärring, L., …. Jönsson, A.M. : Impact of climate
change on the population dynamics of Ips typographus in Sweden.
(manuscript)