Transcript Slide 1

Climate adaptation as
normal business
Steve Dovers
Director, Fenner School of Environment & Society
The Australian National University
Charles Darwin Symposium
October 2011
Charles Darwin Symposium 2011 Dovers
1
Darwin - Ranking of vulnerability to increased
temperature and humidity
Legend
EMUs
SLAs
EMU analysis units
Ranking
EMU 23
Tiwi
1st (least vulnerable)
2nd
3rd
Brinkin
4th
Nakara Wanguri Leanyer
EMU 21
EMU 15
Derived from vulnerability assessment.
This map should be used in conjunction with
the more detailed discussion in the text.
It indicates areas where people and their
surroundings in general may need additional
Lee Point-Leanyer Swamp
preparation for changed climate conditions. Not
all people or places in each area will be equally
vulnerable e.g. low vulnerability
places(S)may
have
Litchfield
- Pt B
higher physical risk but be better able to cope.
EMU 14
Rapid Creek
Alawa Wagaman
Nightcliff
Wulagi
EMU 13
EMU 20
EMU 16
Moil
Anula
Millner
Jingili
Malak
Coconut Grove
5th
6th
7th
8th
9th
Marrara
10th
11th
EMU 19
Karama
EMU 18
EMU 17
12th
Fannie Bay
13th
EMU 12
Ludmilla
EMU 11
City - Remainder
14th
Litchfield (S) - Pt A
Narrows
15th
Winnellie
16th
Cox-Finniss
EMU 4
Parap
Bayview-Woolner
EMU 6
17th
Cox Peninsula (CGC)
18th
Cox-Finniss
The Gardens
Stuart Park
EMU 3
EMU 5
Larrakeyah
EMU 2
City - Inner
EMU 1
19th (most vulnerable)
±
0
Cox-Finniss
East Arm
EMU 9
!
East Arm
Palmerston (C) Bal
Durack
2.5
5
Driver Gunn-Palmerston City
Palmerston (C) Bal
Gray
Kilometres
IACCIUS Darwin Report (Li et al 2009)
2
Coverage
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
A “tipping point” in the climate debate.
How big a challenge is adaptation?
The state of adaptation literature and policy.
That climate change might be easier than we
think – some examples.
Directions for research and policy.
Charles Darwin Symposium 2011 Dovers
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Propositions
1. We are in danger of a policy and research
trajectory around climate change adaptation
that wastes time, reinvents wheels and
ignores existing knowledge and capacities.
2. We might get 1/3 or even 2/3 towards worldbest adaptation policy without thinking too
hard or inventing anything new.
Charles Darwin Symposium 2011 Dovers
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The real “tipping point” … in the climate
change debate
• 20 years of mostly natural science – yes, it is happening,
and some is locked in.
 so we have to adapt.
• A question not just for science, but for social science and
other knowledge systems
• … a difficult transition.
Charles Darwin Symposium 2011 Dovers
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Adaptation vs. mitigation policy
• Mitigation – very difficult politically:
 but, given its root cause in modern economies (fossil
energy use), with agreement and a target, amenable to
‘systemic’ policy interventions (ETS, tax, energy policy).
• Adaptation – newer issue, not amenable to
systemic policy interventions:
 variation across impacts, jurisdictions, sectors, places.
 need varied and multiple policy interventions.
• .… mitigation is a diabolical policy problem,
adaptation is a messy one.
Charles Darwin Symposium 2011 Dovers
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Predicting policy impact
• Clear definitions of (un)certainty in climate science
(IPCC), and a capacity to model and predict impact of
major mitigation policy options (ETS, etc).
• Very little prospect of predicting the effectiveness of
adaptation policy options:
 eg. what likelihood a strategic policy assessment
impacting on sectoral policy; or an education program
causing behaviour change?
• A strong justification for no-regrets options –
what we should be doing anyway.
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State of literature & policy
• The adaptation policy literature:
• Strong on general ends, a lack of examples and models
•
of adaptation, and little instruction on the policy means.
A self-referencing climate literature, not drawing on:
 experience in relevant sectors eg. emergency
management, NRM, public health.
 relevant disciplines eg. public policy, law, public
administration, institutional theory.
……. stuff we already know.
Charles Darwin Symposium 2011 Dovers
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State of policy debate:
• Similar…
 adaptation as a “new” policy problem.
 struggling for purchase and direction.
 firms, councils and communities confused.
• Not connecting to:
 existing practical, professional and academic
knowledge and capacities.
 a long history of documented policy experience.
Dovers, SR and Hezri, AA (2010). Policy and institutional change: the means to the
end of adaptation. Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Climate Change. 1: 212-31.
Charles Darwin Symposium 2011 Dovers
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Adaptation: how hard, really?
• Human societies have long been adapting to
changes in climate, through science, institutions,
policy, management, behaviour – especially
extreme climate and weather events.
• Nowhere more so than in Australia – a highly
variable climate – should be world’s best…
Charles Darwin Symposium 2011 Dovers
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Climate change: a simple typology
1. Not too dissimilar to existing variability over recent centuries,
within institutional & societal memory, but to which we could adapt
better. Up to 20C? Routine problems.
2. Significantly exacerbated variability – droughts, floods, cyclones,
heatwaves, vector-borne diseases, etc – not outside lived and
historical experience, but very challenging. Extremes become
common. 2– 40C? Non-routine problems.
3. Change and variability beyond human experience and
institutional memory, threatening productive base of societies,
inundation of major cities, health of large parts of the population,
economic stability, integrity of evolutionary processes, etc. Strong
non-stationarity, extremes the norm. Over 40C? Complex,
unbounded problems.
(Typology of disaster problems: Handmer J & Dovers S 2007 The
handbook of emergency and disaster policies and institutions. Earthscan.
Charles Darwin Symposium 2011 Dovers
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An optimistic proposition…
• Existing, evidenced proposals provide a basis for
a climate adaptation response, certainly
addressing level 1, and into level 2.
 1/3 or even 2/3rds to a world’s best practice
adaptation policy, without having to think hard?
• (Level 3 is another matter, but acting is better
than not…)
• Six sectors – what should we be doing already
and know how to do that would also serve to
decrease vulnerability to climate change.
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1. Water resource management
 Water management = climate variability, in
allocation for human consumption and for
environmental values:
 Full implementation of NWI = ability to cope
with increased variability = world’s best practice
in adaptation-friendly water policy.
Charles Darwin Symposium 2011 Dovers
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2. Rural towns
 Investigations of local and regional economic
vulnerability produce familiar lists of strategies
that should be pursued for other reasons:
 Diversification of employment, niche market
development, local skills training, increased
collaboration amongst firms, better local socioeconomic data…
Integrated Assessment of Climate Impacts on Urban Settlements reports – see
http://fennerschool-research.anu.edu.au/iaccius/publications/
Charles Darwin Symposium 2011 Dovers
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3: Biodiversity
 The vulnerability of biodiversity to climate
change would be addressed by familiar, existing
proposals:
 Landscape-wide approaches to vegetation
management and connectivity, well resourced
and managed reserve network, greater longevity
& coordination of policy programs,
comprehensive long term ecological
monitoring…
Charles Darwin Symposium 2011 Dovers
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4: Remote Indigenous communities
 Impacts of climate change on health and well-
being in remote communities suggests things we
should do anyway:
 Decent medical services, workable
communication systems, standard education
opportunities, support of local resource-based
enterprises, housing …
Charles Darwin Symposium 2011 Dovers
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5: Urban settlements
• Address past neglect of urban planning and
energy reform -- correct existing idiocies:
• Wrongly oriented houses dependent on air-
conditioning; private car reliance designed into
the structure of cities; needlessly inefficient
industrial processes; inadequate developer
contributions; poor public transport, developing
waterfronts…
Charles Darwin Symposium 2011 Dovers
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6: Emergency management
 The sharp end of climate adaptation, with wellknown options…
 Better cross-sectoral coordination;
communications, community scale capacity,
building standards, remote and regional
livelihoods, urban planning that reduces rather
than increases vulnerability, etc.
 the unimplemented recommendations of
numerous inquiries.
Charles Darwin Symposium 2011 Dovers
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Implications for research…
• Reconsider the disciplinary mix to match the
•
“tipping point” in debates – beyond science.
Seek relevant, applicable but yet-to-be-engaged
theory, methods, policy practice:
 eg: urban studies, social psychology, public health,
emergency and disaster policy, natural resource
management, public policy...
• Identify cases of existing adaptation, or of
proposals with adaptation and other benefits.
Charles Darwin Symposium 2011 Dovers
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Implications for policy
1. An “audit” of existing and proposed policy options,
2.
3.
coordinated across sectors for synergies – embed in
normal business.
Matched with an audit of barriers to adaptation – a
legislative and policy assessment process.
Regular strategic policy assessment to embed
adaptation considerations in policy across all sectors.
4. A comprehensive data base and clearing house
for information, data, examples – a chronic gap.
Dovers, S. 2006. Precautionary policy assessment for sustainability. In:
Fisher et al (eds). Implementing the Precautionary Principle: Perspectives
and Prospects. Edward Elgar.
Charles Darwin Symposium 2011
Dovers
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(In)conclusion
• Australia can get 1/3 or even 2/3 the way
to world’s best climate adaptation without
having to think too hard?
• … using many no-regrets options?
• Climate adaptation = normal business.
Charles Darwin Symposium 2011 Dovers
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Darwin - Ranking of vulnerability to increased storm surge risk
Legend
EMUs
SLAs
EMU analysis units
EMU 23
Tiwi
SSZ
1st (least vulnerable)
2nd
Brinkin
3rd
Nakara Wanguri Leanyer
EMU 21
EMU 15
Derived from vulnerability assessment tables.
This map should be used in conjunction with
the more detailed vulnerability summary tables.
It indicates areas where people and their
surroundings in general may need additional
Lee Point-Leanyer Swamp
preparation for changed climate conditions. Not
all people or places in each area will be equally
vulnerable (ie low vulnerabilityLitchfield
places (S)
may
- Pthave
B
higher physical risk but be better able to cope,
and high vulnerability places may not be
vulnerable to all impacts).
EMU 14
Rapid Creek Alawa Wagaman
Nightcliff
Wulagi
EMU 13
EMU 20
EMU 16
Moil
Anula
Millner
Jingili
Malak
Coconut Grove
4th
5th
6th
7th
8th
Marrara
9th
10th
EMU 19
Karama
EMU 18
EMU 17
11th
Fannie Bay
12th
EMU 12
Ludmilla
EMU 11
City - Remainder
13th
Litchfield (S) - Pt A
Narrows
14th
Winnellie
15th
Cox-Finniss
EMU 4
Parap
Bayview-Woolner
EMU 6
16th
Cox Peninsula (CGC)
17th
Cox-Finniss
The Gardens
Stuart Park
EMU 3
EMU 5
Larrakeyah
EMU 2
City - Inner
EMU 1
18th
19th (most vulnerable)
East Arm
EMU 9
±
0
Cox-Finniss
!
East Arm
Palmerston (C) Bal
Durack
2.5
5
Driver Gunn-Palmerston City
Palmerston (C) Bal
Gray
Kilometres
IACCIUS Darwin Report (Li et al 2009)
22