Transcript Diapositiva 1

Ana Iglesias, Universidad Politécnica de Madrid
La economía de agua de riego
24 Septiembre 2008
[email protected]
Ana Iglesias - Ecoagua, Zaragoza 24 Septiembre 2008
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PESETA (JRC)
Adaptation (DG Agri)
PICCMAT (6th FP)
CIRCE (6th FP)
SWAP (6th FP)
ClimateCost (7th FP)
MEDROPLAN (EuropeAid, MEDA Water)
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• For the last 10,000 years we have been living in
a remarkable stable climate that allowed the
whole of the human development to take place
• In all that time, though the medieval warming
and the Little Ice Age, there was only a variation
of 1ºC
• Now we see the potential for sudden change of
between 2 and 6ºC – We just don’t know what
the world is like at those temperatures, we
have no idea if we can live in it
Adapted from: Robert Corell, The Guardian, Oct 2007
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Production in a changing climate
•
Objective: discussion
1. Critical thinking: What does climate change
mean for production?
–
–
Complex outlook, multiple dimensions
Challenges and opportunities
2. Solutions: What is the best future we can
hope for?
–
Focus on policy integration
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Rethinking climate impacts
Climate
impacts
f
Climate
dynamics
Societal
dynamics
Source: CIRCE
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Climate dynamics
Observed and projected warming in the EU
Source: Stott et al. 2004, Hadley Centre
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More extreme events
Projected changes in drought risk (%)
under the A1B MPI 2070-2100 scenario
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Annual Streamflow in Bolarque and SPI
3500
2.5
2.0
3000
Hm3
2500
1.0
0.5
2000
0.0
1500
-0.5
-1.0
1000
SPI (24 months)
1.5
-1.5
500
-2.0
Ann Inflow
SPI (24)
1999/00
1991/92
1983/84
1975/76
1967/68
1959/60
1951/52
1943/44
1935/36
1927/28
1919/20
-2.5
1911/12
0
Lineal (Ann Inflow)
Source: Iglesias et al., 2007 Ana Iglesias - Ecoagua, Zaragoza 24 Septiembre 2008
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an
ce
tic
n
a
# 1. Scenarios:
Water supply and demand
France
#
11
tl
10
10
99
22
#
Barcelona
Portugal
A
Bilbao
O
Madrid
#
33
Valencia
88
#
44
11
11
77
5
change
Changes in water supply and demand with climateSevilla
#
66
15
an
ne
a
rr
ite
d
Me
% change from baseline
12
12
10
a
Se
5
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
(1)
(2)
(3)
(4)
(5)
(6)
(7)
(8)
(9)
(10)
-5
-10
-15
Irrigation demand
Iglesias et al. 2008
Rservoir water inflow
Available water resources
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Rethinking climate impacts
Climate
impacts
f
Climate
dynamics
Societal
dynamics
Source: CIRCE
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Global scale
Agricultural exports and imports (2006)
1,000
900
Exports
Imports
800
Million t
700
600
500
400
300
200
100
0
EU
USA
China
RoW
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# 2. Local realities (vulnerabilities)
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Local realities (vulnerabilities)
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Rethinking climate impacts
Climate
impacts
Challenges
and
opportunities
f
Climate
dynamics
Societal
dynamics
Source: CIRCE
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Challenges and opportunities
Regional disparities
Crop yield changes under the HadCM3/HIRHAM A2 and B2 scenarios for the 2080s and for the ECHAM4/ RCA3
A2 and B2 scenarios for the 2080s and ECHAM4/ RCA3 A2 scenario for the 2020s compared to baseline
(Iglesias Ana
et Iglesias
al. 2007)
- Ecoagua, Zaragoza 24 Septiembre 2008
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Boreal
• Expansion of areas and growing season
• Expansion of weeds, pests, diseases
• Risk of soil structure loss
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Atlantic N
Atlantic C
• Sea level rise
• Floods, waterlogging
• Summer drought
• Environmental
policy
determines the
opportunities
17
Ana Iglesias - Ecoagua, Zaragoza 24 Septiembre 2008
# 3. Useful knowledge
The role of the human capital, Gary Becker (Nobel Price, 1992)
Fuente: OECD
http://www.oecd.org/dataoecd/0/9/1916629.pdf
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Atlantic S
• Decline of
high quality
crops
• Regulations
may limit
opportunities
Bordeaux red: Cabernet Sauvignon, Cabernet franc, Merlot, Petit Verdot, Carménère, Malbec
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Balance Carbono en Champagne
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Continental N
Continental S
• Heat stress and drought in
summer
(e.g., 2007)
• Floods, water-logging
• Environmental degradation
• New crops, energy crops
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# 4. Flexible risk management
• The past is not a reliable indicator of
the future
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Alpine
• Glacier melt
• Modification of the hydrological
regime with large implications
for soil erosion, water
availability, etc
• Further stress to highly
vulnerable areas
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• Water scarcity and drought
Med N • Conflicts among water
Med S
users
• Vulnerability of the complex
interactions of agricultureecosystems
• Limitations of rural
development
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The Stern Review of the Economics of
Climate Change (Stern et al, 2006)
• Argues that “the overall costs and risks of
climate change will be equivalent to losing at
least 5% of global GDP1 each year”
• Challenged by many economists with large
working experience in climate change (Tol,
2007). Ignores and contradicts numerous
unquestionable results (Nicholls and Tol, 2005;
Nordhaus, 2006; Sachs, 2001; Fankhauser and
Tol, 2005)
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Change value of GDP 2080s (agriculture shock)
0.15
% change
0.10
0.05
0.00
-0.05
Rest of EU
Med North
Med South
ROW
-0.10
-0.15
HadCM3 A2
HadCM3 B2
ECHAM A2
ECHAM B2
Source: Iglesias et al., 2007
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Production in a changing climate
•
Objective: discussion
1. Critical thinking: What does climate change
mean for production?
–
–
Complex outlook, multiple dimensions
Challenges and opportunities
2. Solutions: What is the best future we can
hope for?
–
Focus on policy integration
Ana Iglesias - Ecoagua, Zaragoza 24 Septiembre 2008
27
Rethinking climate impacts
Climate
impacts
f
Climate
dynamics
Societal
dynamics
Source: CIRCE
Ana Iglesias - Ecoagua, Zaragoza 24 Septiembre 2008
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Existing set of policies
• Kyoto protocol
• Lisbon strategy
• SD strategy
• EU White Paper on Adaptation
• CAP – WFD – Nitrates D – Energy D
• Local initiatives (early stages,
dissemination, awareness building)
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Awareness raising
Building
adaptive
capacity
Research (spatial and time
dimension)
Knowledge transfer
Risk management
Policy support in order to
deliver adaptation actions
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Building
Delivering
adaptive
adaptation
capacity
actions
Supported by policy
Strategic combination of
the CC commitments of
various policies
Technology, infrastructure
Changes in land use
Flexible resource
management and
efficiency
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Role of
RD (CAP)
A flexible
framework
Axis 1
Farm modernization
Restoring & prevention
Farm advisory services
Training
Axis 2
Agri-env measures
Payments linked to WFD
Axis 3
Diversification into nonagricultural activities
Leader
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Climate change
Natural
resources
dimension
Social
dimension
# 5.
Understanding
how may
policy modify
climate risks
Climate
policy index
Economic
dimension
Technological
dimension
Vulnerability
Impacts
Define strategic
combination of the
climate change
commitments in the
various policies
Source: CIRCE
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Climate
policy
index
Algeria
0.31
Egypt
0.43
France
0.62
Israel
0.48
Italy
0.61
Libya
0.30
Morocco
0.40
Spain
0.55
Syria
0.49
• Values range from 0
to 1
• High values indicate
that current policies
decrease potential
impacts (the system
has increased
adaptive capacity, is
less vulnerable)
Source: CIRCE
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Climate impacts on agriculture
with different policies
HadCM3/HIRHAM B2 scenario for the period 2071-2100
(% yield change respect to baseline)
Agric output
Mediterranean
Europe
Adaptation
Policy
Env (1)
Adaptation
Farm (2)
Adaptation
Policy
Econ /Rural Dev (3)
-50 to -25
1
0 to 20
(1) Adaptation with emphasis on water resources protection
and urban development
(2) Farm adaptation without policy support (private)
(3) Adaptation with emphasis with protection of agricultural
production and rural development
Soure: Iglesias et al 2007
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What is the best future
we can hope for?
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Thinking more about …
1. Climate scenarios are not enough
2. Understanding of local vulnerabilities
3. Useful knowledge (involving practitioners,
industry)
4. Moving towards a flexible, risk management
5. Understanding how policy modifies climate
risks and opportunities
•
Learning how to respond in the long term
•
Learning how to avoid political crisis
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Thanks for your attention!
[email protected]
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