Transcript PowerPoint Presentation - Global Change Curricula and

Climate Change:
Use of Climate Science in Decision-making
Eugene S. Takle, PhD, CCM
Professor of Atmospheric Science
Department of Geological and Atmospheric Sciences
Professor of Agricultural Meteorology
Department of Agronomy
Faculty Director, University Honors Program
Iowa State University
Ames, Iowa 50011
[email protected]
Annual Conference
Iowa State Extension Service
Ames
10 October 2007
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Image courtesy of NASA/GSFC
Outline
Changes in atmospheric carbon dioxide
 Radiative forcing
 Simulations of global climate and future climate
change
 Four components for addressing climate change
 Climate change for Iowa and the Midwest:
adaptation strategy
 Climate information and forecasts for
use in extension
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Except where noted as personal views or from the
ISU Global Change course or the Iowa
Environmental Mesonet, all materials presented
herein are from peer-reviewed scientific reports
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CO2, CH4 and temperature records from Antarctic ice core data
Source: Vimeux, F., K.M. Cuffey, and Jouzel, J., 2002, "New insights into Southern Hemisphere
temperature changes from Vostok ice cores using deuterium excess correction", Earth and Planetary
Science Letters, 203, 829-843.
Pattern
repeats about
every 100,000
years
Natural cycles
CO2, CH4 and temperature records from Antarctic ice core data
Source: Vimeux, F., K.M. Cuffey, and Jouzel, J., 2002, "New insights into Southern Hemisphere
temperature changes from Vostok ice cores using deuterium excess correction", Earth and Planetary
Science Letters, 203, 829-843.
IPCC Third Assessment Report
Carbon Dioxide
and Temperature
2007
380 ppm
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Carbon Dioxide
and Temperature
2050
550 ppm
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Carbon Dioxide
and Temperature
“Business as Usual”
950 ppm
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“Business as Usual”
Carbon Dioxide
and Temperature
950 ppm
?
PROJECT TO INTERCOMPARE REGIONAL CLIMATE SIMULATIONS
QuickTime™ and a
TIFF (Uncompressed) decompressor
are needed to see this picture.
http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/img/climate/research/2006/ann/glob_jan-dec-error-bar_pg.gif
Mann, M. E., R. S. Bailey, and M. K. Hughes, 1999: Geophysical Research Letters 26, 759.
Source: IPCC, 2001: Climate Change 2001: The Scientific Basis
Source: IPCC, 2001: Climate Change 2001: The Scientific Basis
PROJECT TO INTERCOMPARE REGIONAL CLIMATE SIMULATIONS
TO INTERCOMPARE
REGIONAL
IPCC FourthPROJECT
Assessment
Report Summary
for PolicyCLIMATE
Makers SIMULATIONS
Agung, 1963
El Chichon (1982)
Mt. Pinatubo (1991)
At present trends the imbalance = 1 Watt/m2 in 2018
Hansen, Scientific American, March 2004
http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2007/10/01/science/20071002_ARCTIC_GRAPHIC.html?ex=1191902400&en=c94
928ddecd5ba57&ei=5070&emc=eta3
http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2007/10/01/science/20071002_ARCTIC_GRAPHIC.html?ex=1191902400&en=c94
928ddecd5ba57&ei=5070&emc=eta3
http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2007/10/01/science/20071002_ARCTIC_GRAPHIC.html?ex=1191902400&en=c94
928ddecd5ba57&ei=5070&emc=eta3
http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2007/10/01/science/20071002_ARCTIC_GRAPHIC.html?ex=1191902400&en=c94
928ddecd5ba57&ei=5070&emc=eta3
http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2007/10/01/science/20071002_ARCTIC_GRAPHIC.html?ex=1191902400&en=c94
928ddecd5ba57&ei=5070&emc=eta3
http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2007/10/01/science/20071002_ARCTIC_GRAPHIC.html?ex=1191902400&en=c94
928ddecd5ba57&ei=5070&emc=eta3
http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2007/10/01/science/20071002_ARCTIC_GRAPHIC.html?ex=1191902400&en=c94
928ddecd5ba57&ei=5070&emc=eta3
Source:
Corell, R. W., 2004: Impacts of a warming Arctic. Arctic Climate
Impact Assessment (www.acia.uaf.edu) Cambridge University Press
(www.cambridge.org).
Kennedy Space
Center
Impact of a 1-m
rise in sea level
on low-lying areas
Projected sea-level rise
In 21st century:
0.5 to 1.0 m
Areas subjected to
Inundation with a 1 m
(~3 ft) rise in sea
level
Miami
Source:
Corell, R. W., 2004: Impacts of
a warming Arctic. Arctic
Climate Impact Assessment
(www.acia.uaf.edu) Cambridge
University Press
(www.cambridge.org).
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QuickTime™ and a
TIFF (Uncompressed) decompressor
are needed to see this picture.
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Hansen,
Scientific American, March 2004
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SIMULATIONS
Antarctica
Greenland
0
Cold
Warm
Climate
QuickTime™ and a
TIFF (Uncompressed) decompressor
are needed to see this picture.
An exhibition of old
and new photographs
at the Swiss Alpine
Museum in Bern
documents the
gradual disappearance
of Switzerland's
glaciers. The Rhone
glacier with the Hotel
Belvedere in the
foreground and the
Furka pass, Canton
Valais circa 1906 and
2003 (Pictures:
Gesellschaft fur
okologische
Forschung, Munich)
QuickTime™ and a
TIFF (Uncompressed) decompressor
are needed to see this picture.
http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/img/climate/research/2006/ann/glob_jan-dec-error-bar_pg.gif
QuickTime™ and a
TIFF (Uncompressed) decompressor
are needed to see this picture.
Natural and
anthropogenic
contributions to global
temperature change
(Meehl et al., 2004).
Observed values from
Jones and Moberg 2001.
Grey bands indicate 68%
and 95% range derived
from multiple simulations.
QuickTime™ and a
TIFF (Uncompressed) decompressor
are needed to see this picture.
Natural and
anthropogenic
contributions to global
temperature change
(Meehl et al., 2004).
Observed values from
Jones and Moberg 2001.
Grey bands indicate 68%
and 95% range derived
from multiple simulations.
Natural cycles
QuickTime™ and a
TIFF (Uncompressed) decompressor
are needed to see this picture.
Natural and
anthropogenic
contributions to global
temperature change
(Meehl et al., 2004).
Observed values from
Jones and Moberg 2001.
Grey bands indicate 68%
and 95% range derived
from multiple simulations.
Not Natural
QuickTime™ and a
TIFF (Uncompressed) decompressor
are needed to see this picture.
Natural and
anthropogenic
contributions to global
temperature change
(Meehl et al., 2004).
Observed values from
Jones and Moberg 2001.
Grey bands indicate 68%
and 95% range derived
from multiple simulations.
Highly Likely Not
Natural
Not Natural
Source: Jerry Meehl, National Center for Atmospheric Research
IPCC Fourth Assessment Report Summary for Policy Makers
Energy intensive
Reduced Consumption
Energy conserving
TO INTERCOMPARE
REGIONAL
IPCC FourthPROJECT
Assessment
Report Summary
for PolicyCLIMATE
Makers SIMULATIONS
Energy intensive
Reduced Consumption
Energy conserving
The planet is
committed to a
warming over the
next 50 years
regardless of
political decisions
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REGIONAL
IPCC FourthPROJECT
Assessment
Report Summary
for PolicyCLIMATE
Makers SIMULATIONS
Energy intensive
Reduced Consumption
Energy conserving
Mitigation
Possible
Adaptation
Necessary
TO INTERCOMPARE
REGIONAL
IPCC FourthPROJECT
Assessment
Report Summary
for PolicyCLIMATE
Makers SIMULATIONS
TO INTERCOMPARE
REGIONAL
IPCC FourthPROJECT
Assessment
Report Summary
for PolicyCLIMATE
Makers SIMULATIONS
IPCC Fourth Assessment Report Summary for Policy Makers
Four-Component Approach for
Addressing Climate Change

Mitigation policies: 2050-2100
– Example: reduction in GHG emissions

Adaptation (long-term): 2015-2050
– Example: Developing Iowa’s competitive
economic advantage

Adaptation (short-term): 2008-2015
– Example: redefining climate “normals”
when needed and scientifically justified

Scenario planning for Iowa’s “Katrina”:
2007-2100
– Example: Multi-year drought, recurrent floods,
combination of both; drought and wildfire
EST personal view
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Climate Adaptation(Short-Term)
If a meteorological variable began
departing from its long-term background
near or after 1970 it may be related to the
radiation imbalance and thereby has a
better chance than not of continuing its
new trend over the next 5-10 years.
EST personal view
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Projected Changes for the Climate of
Iowa/Midwest (My tentative assessment)
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Longer frost-free period (high)
Higher average winter temperatures (high)
Fewer extreme cold temperatures in winter (high)
More extreme high temperatures in summer (medium)
Higher nighttime temperatures both summer and winter (high)
More (~10%) precipitation (medium)
More variability of summer precipitation (high)
– More intense rain events and hence more runoff (high)
– Higher episodic streamflow (medium)
– Longer periods without rain (medium)
Higher absolute humidity (high)
Stronger storm systems (medium)
Reduced annual mean wind speeds (medium)
Follows trend of last 25 years and projected by models
No current trend but model suggestion or current trend but models
inconclusive
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Reasons Crop Yields Might
Increase in the Midwest
Longer growing season
 Warmer spring soil temperatures
 Modest or no increase in summer daily
maximum temperatures
 Increase in nighttime temperatures
 Reduced risk of late frost in spring or early
frost in fall
 More freeze-thaw cycles that will
recharge soil moisture in winter
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Reasons Crop Yields Might
Increase in the Midwest
 More
precipitation
 More soil moisture
 Higher dew-point temperatures reduces
moisture stress
 Higher CO2 increased carbon
uptake by crops
 Higher CO2 increases the
water-use efficiency of crops
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Reasons Crop Yields Might
Decrease in the Midwest
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More precipitation extremes
– More rain events bring heavy rain
– More droughts
– More floods
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More over-wintering pests
More pathogens due to higher humidity
More vigorous weed growth
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D. Herzmann, Iowa Environmental Mesonet
D. Herzmann, Iowa Environmental Mesonet
D. Herzmann, Iowa Environmental Mesonet
D. Herzmann, Iowa Environmental Mesonet
D. Herzmann, Iowa Environmental Mesonet
D. Herzmann, Iowa Environmental Mesonet
D. Herzmann, Iowa Environmental Mesonet
North America Regional Climate
Change Assessment Program
Linda O. Mearns, National Center for Atmospheric Research
Principal Investigator
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Raymond Arritt, William Gutowski, Gene Takle, Iowa State University
Erasmo Buono, Richard Jones, Hadley Centre, UK
Daniel Caya, OURANOS, Canada
Phil Duffy, Lawrence Livermore National Laboratories, USA
Filippo Giorgi, Jeremy Pal, Abdus Salam ICTP, Italy
Isaac Held, Ron Stouffer, NOAA Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, USA
René Laprise, Univ. de Québec à Montréal, Canada
Ruby Leung, Pacific Northwest National Laboratories, USA
Linda O. Mearns, Doug Nychka, Phil Rasch, Tom Wigley, National Center for Atmospheric Research, USA
Ana Nunes, John Roads, Scripps Institution of Oceanography, USA
Steve Sain, Univ. of Colorado at Denver, USA
Lisa Sloan, Mark Snyder, Univ. of California at Santa Cruz, USA
http://www.narccap.ucar.edu/
NOAA’s currently funded Regional Integrated Sciences and Assessments
teams
Proposed new
Midwest Consortium for
Climate Assessment (MiCCA)
Tin and Seager
Midwest Consortium for
Climate Change (MiCCA)
Mission
To translate NOAA seasonal to interannual climate forecasts into decisionmaking tools for agriculture and to
disseminate these products through
the state extension services
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Summary
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Climate change of the past 35 years is not consistent
with natural variations over the last 400,000 years
Evidence clearly shows that radiative forcing due to
anthropogenic greenhouse gases has contributed over
half of the warming of the last 35 years
Mitigation efforts, although urgently needed, will have
little effect on global warming until the latter half of the
21st century
Adaptation strategies should be developed
for the next 50 years
Recent trends and model projections
should be used to develop adaptation
strategies for the next 10 years
EST personal view
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For More Information

For peer-reviewed evidence supporting everything you have seen in this presentation, see
my online Global Change course:
http://www.meteor.iastate.edu/gccourse
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Contact me directly:
[email protected]

Current research on regional climate and climate change is being conducted at Iowa State
Unversity under the Regional Climate Modeling Laboratory
http://rcmlab.agron.iastate.edu/
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North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program
http://www.narccap.ucar.edu/
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For this and other climate change presentations see my
http://www.meteor.iastate.edu/faculty/takle/
personal website:
Or just Google Eugene Takle
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