Transcript Slide 1

Africa’s future and the World Bank’s support to it
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rebound from the crisis
Average GDP
growth rate
1998-2008
Liberia
Mozambique
Sierra Leone
Rwanda
Sao Tome and Princ.
Ethiopia
Tanzania
Cape Verde
Mali
Burkina Faso
40%
Botswana
Ghana
Gambia, The
Mauritius
Namibia
Senegal
Niger
Benin
Zambia
Madagascar
Percentage of total African population
Growth is accelerating
Equatorial Guinea
Angola
Chad
Sudan
30%
Oil countries
Nigeria
Cameroon
Congo•Thanks
Rep
to continued, prudent economic policies, rapid
Gabon
Kenya
Malawi
South Africa
Guinea
Lesotho
Swaziland
Seychelles
Burundi
Congo, Dem. Rep.
Comoros
CAR
Togo
Cote d’Ivoire
Eritrea
Guinea-Bissau
Zimbabwe
Growth 4% or higher
Growth less than 4%
30%
-5.0
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
2
20.0
25.0
Macroeconomic policies have improved
140
45
7
6
6
7
6
5
4
2
3
2
2
40
35
13 13
100
30
80
25
60
20
33 31 33
30 32
29 31
40
20
0
24
17
27 28
31 33
15
10
5
0
Number of Countries
Average Inflation Rate %
120
Inflation>20%
10%<inflation<=20%
Inflation<=10%
Median inflation rate
Rebound after the crisis
Growth in 2010
Progress towards the MDGs
Population living under $1.25/day
Child mortality rates
Primary school enrollment rates
Maternal mortality ratio
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Dynamic private sector
Private capital inflows
Mobile cellular penetration
Per 100 inhabitants
(Billions of US Dollars)
Source: ITU World Telecommunication/ICT Indicators database
World
Dev. Countries
Africa
Share of economies with at least 1 reform to make it easier to do business (%)
ICT growth in Africa and the world, 2003-2008
CAGR (%)
Source: Doing Business Report 2011
Fixed Phone
lines
Mobile
cellular
subscriptions
Internet
users
Africa
2.4
47.0
30.6
World
2.5
23.0
17.0
CGAR refers to Compound Annual Growth Rates
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Development Challenges
DIVERSIFICATION
HUMAN CAPITAL
GOVERNANCE
Focus on:
WOMEN’S EMPOWERMENT
YOUTH EMPLOYMENT
Can we seize the
recent growth and
dynamism on the
continent to address
these development
challenges?
CLIMATE CHANGE
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Strategy represents the views of stakeholders
1,500 participants
in 36 countries
“Africa has a very bright future... We
have abundant resources which when
well harnessed, with suitable
governance in place, can turn the
continent into one of the wealthiest.”
Eliud Akanga
Kenya
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=B9PwMzzb1xM&feature=player_embedded
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The Africa Strategy
Two pillars and a foundation
Competitiveness and
employment
Vulnerability and
resilience
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Competitiveness and employment
Agricultural productivity
Investment climate
Infrastructure
Health and skills of workers
Source: Briceño-Garmendia, Smits, and Foster 2008.
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SELECTED
CORRIDORS
OF THE STUDY
Central
Africa
East
Africa
West
Africa
Southern
Africa
France
Variable costs (USD per vehkm)
1.31
0.98
1.67
1.54
0.72
Fixed costs (USD per veh-km)
0.57
0.35
0.62
0.34
0.87
Total transport costs
(USD per veh-km)
1.88
1.33
2.29
1.88
1.59
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11
12
10
5
5
5
Western
Europe – long
distance
AfricaDurbanLusaka
USA
8
AfricaDoualaNdjaména
Africa –
Mombasa
Kampala
2
Africa- Lomé Ouagadougou
0
4
Brazil
4
2
3.5
China
7
8
6
Pakistan
Average transport prices
(in US cents per tkm)
Average Transport Prices
(in US cents per tkm)
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Profit Margins
Corridor
Gateway - Destination
Price
(USD/ veh-km)
Variable
cost
(USD/veh- km)
Fixed cost
(USD/veh- km)
Average
yearly
mileage
(‘000)
Profit
margin
(%)
Tema/Accra - Ouagadougou
3.53
1.54
0.66
30-40
80%
Tema/Accra - Bamako
3.93
1.67
0.62
40-50
80%
Douala - N’Djaména
3.19
1.31
0.57
60-70
73%
Douala - Bangui
3.78
1.21
1.08
50-60
83%
Ngaoundéré - N’Djaména
5.37
1.83
0.73
20-30
118%
Ngaoundéré - Moundou
9.71
2.49
1.55
10-20
163%
East
Africa
Mombasa - Kampala
2.22
0.98
0.35
130-140
86%
Mombasa - Nairobi
2.26
0.83
0.53
90-100
66%
Southern
Africa
Lusaka - Johannesburg
2.32
1.54
0.34
160-170
18%
Lusaka - Dar-es-Salaam
2.55
1.34
0.44
160-170
62%
West
Africa
Central
Africa
An interesting observation:
On Central Africa corridor, trucks with lower average yearly mileage
have the higher profit margins
Example of the Impact of Market Deregulation:
The case of Rwanda
350
900
Before liberalization
liberalization
Average transport prices (constant andAfter
current)
from Mombasa to Kigali
800
300
700
250
200
500
150
400
300
100
200
50
100
Years
Current transport tariffs (left)
Real transport tariffs - GDP deflator (right)
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
1999
1998
1997
1996
1995
1994
1993
1992
1991
1990
0
1989
0
US$/Ton
US$/Ton
600
Competitiveness and employment
Real
Agricultural
GDP
Real
agriculture
GDP growth
(28
valueweighted)
weighted)
(28countries
countries value
5.0
4.0
3.0
# of countries > 5%/yr
2.0
1.0
8
3
4
2000-04
2001-05
5
4
0.0
100%
2002-06
2003-07
2004-2008
Women’s earnings as
a share of men’s
earnings
79%
51%
45%
23%
Ghana
Nigeria
MozambiqueBurkina Faso
Source: J.Arbache, A. Kolev, E. Filipiak, Gender Disparities in Africa’s Labor Markets. World Bank, 2010
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Competitiveness and employment
Agricultural productivity
•Rural infrastructure
•Land titling
Infrastructure
•Public-private partnerships
•Regional projects
•Policy reforms
Investment climate
•Support to SMEs
•Access to finance
•Business councils
Healthy and skilled workforce
•Quality and access to primary
health and education
•Secondary and tertiary
education
•Vocational training with private
sector participation
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Vulnerability and resilience
Economic shocks
Natural disasters
Health shocks (AIDS, malaria)
Violence and political conflict
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Vulnerability and resilience
Food prices (2000=100)
percentage point change from baseline
Poverty increase from baseline (in percentage points)
due to a 25% increase in food prices
4.5
4
3.5
3
2.5
2
1.5
1
0.5
0
Ghana
Liberia
Sierra
Leone
Togo
DR Congo
Guinea
Gabon
Mali
Niger
Nigeria
Source: Wodon et al. (2008). "Potential Impact of Higher Food Prices on Poverty: Estimates from a
Dozen West and Central African Countries", Policy Research Working Paper 4745.
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Climate Change
Number of floods increasing
Source: WDR 2010
Source: Costs to Developing Countries of Adapting to Climate Change, World Bank, 2009. http://blogs.worldbank.org/dmblog/node/651
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Vulnerability and resilience
Economic shocks
•Prudent macroeconomic policies
•Social transfers
Natural disasters
•Early warning systems
•Resilient infrastructure
•Rapid transfers to victims
Health shocks
•Health insurance
•Health systems
Conflict and political violence
•Institutions for shared wealth
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Foundation of the strategy
Change of CPIA Scores (2005-2009)
Within clusters for oil and non oil countries
Average oil
Average non- oil
All countries
Participation through new channels
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th grade Tanzanian
7Percentage
could not
of 7thstudents
grade who
students
in
Tanzania who CANNOT
• Read in Kiswahili at 2nd grade level: 20%
• Do a 2nd grade multiplication problem: 30%
• Read English: 50%
Absence rate among teachers
Country
Rate (percent)
Bangladesh
15
Ecuador
14
India
25
Indonesia
19
Papua New
Guinea
15
Peru
11
Zambia
17
Uganda
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Uganda: When teacher is present
Can't find teacher,
19.2%
In class, teaching,
18.2%
Out of class, break,
17.6%
Administrative
work, 8.1%
Out of class, in
school, 34.2%
In class, not
teacher, 2.4%
With surveyor,
0.2%
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Leakage of resources for health
Country (year)
% of cash/in-kind
resources leaked
Resource Category
Kenya (2004)
38
Non-salary budget
Tanzania (1991)
41
Non-salary budget
Uganda (2000)
70
Drugs and supplies
Ghana (2000)
80
Non-salary budget
Chad (2004)
99
Non-salary budget
Source: Gauthier (2006)
Rwanda 2005-2008
Indicators
DHS-2005
DHS-2008
Contraception (modern)
10%
27%
Delivery in Health Centers
39%
52%
Infant Mortality rate
86 per 1000
62 per 1000
Under-Five Mortality rate
152 per 1000
103 per 1000
Anemia Prevalence : Children
56%
48%
Vaccination : All
75%
80.4%
Vaccination : Measles
86%
90%
Use of
Insecticide treated nets among
children less than 5
4%
67%
6.1 children
5.5 children
Fertility
Grants for primary education in Uganda
Primary Education in Uganda
(PETS)
US$ per
In 1995, survey of
250 primary schools
in 19 of 39 districts;
Survey repeated in
1998 and 2000.
Student
3.5
3.0
2.5
2.0
1.5
1.0
0.5
0.0
1990
1991
Intended Grant Amount
1993
1994
1995
1999
Received by School (mean)
Figure 1: ADP culvert with broken top slab
Figure 2: a good quality culvert prepared under the SLGDP scheme
Foundation of the strategy
Building demand for good governance
Mobile coverage in SSA
(population in weighted averages 1999 – 2009)
100%
90%
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
Jan-99 May-99 Dec-00 Jul-01 Nov-01 Mar-02 Jul-02 Mar-03 Jul-03 Mar-04 Sep-06 Mar-07 Mar-08 Mar-09
Total
Urban
Rural
Participation through new channels
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Implementation of the strategy
Partnerships
Knowledge
Finance
-Government
-Civil society
-Private sector
-Other
development
actors
•Analysis to inform
policy
•Evidence to
nourish public
debate
Leverage
•Domestic
resources
•IDA, IBRD,
IFC,MIGA
•Private capital
Regional solutions
High-impact projects:
•West Africa Power Pool
• Inga 3 hydro-project
•North-South Corridor
Beyond Infrastructure:
•Agricultural research
•Health
•Trade integration
Public Health Laboratory Network
in East Africa
*Source:
Africa’s infrastructure: A time for transformation, World Bank 2010
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Country Differentiation
Middle-Income
Countries
Fast-growing
low-income countries
Fragile states
(WDR 2011)
Slow-growing lowincome countries
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Monitoring and evaluation
Three Tier Monitoring Framework: aligned with IDA16 Monitoring, Corporate Scorecard
Examples of Regional Key Development Outcomes, the Strategy intends to influence
•
•
•
•
Poverty headcount (PPP, % of population under US$ 1.25) from 50.9% in 2005 to under 40% in 2015
Under 5 mortality rate (# per 1000 people) from 129 in 2009 to under 93 in 2015
Maternal mortality ratio (# per 100,000 live births) from 645 in 2008 to below 500 in 2015
Annual 4% growth (%) in agricultural value added [5 year moving average] from 2010 to 2015
Integrated Reporting Framework: Painting the Full Picture of Results
•
•
•
•
5 Year Monitoring Framework allows adjustments at Strategy Mid-Term
Annual Progress Reports, Dissemination through social media, blogs and AfricaWiki
Drawing from CAS results
Complemented by annual “IDA at Work” Results Stories
Strengthen countries’ statistical capacity to monitor progress
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Ten-Year Vision for the New Strategy
Accelerated Growth and Diversification
Human Capital Development and Women’s Empowerment
• 20 countries average 3-4% annual per capita GDP growth
• Women’s legal capacity and property rights increased
• 5 countries achieve MIC status
• Progress beyond MDGs to quality health and education
• 15 countries register 5% or higher agricultural GDP growth
per year
Improving Governance
• Regionally integrated infrastructure (“missing links” in ICT,
energy, roads and rail reduced by at least 50%)
• ICT revolution strengthening accountability in the public
sector
• Access to infrastructure increases (50% of households with
power)
Climate Change
• Governance indicators steadily rising
• Climate change adaptation measures in place
Employment Creation and Poverty Reduction
• Labor absorbed at rapid pace; SMEs growing rapidly
• Decline in poverty rate by 12 percentage points
Five-year results framework (presented
later) based on ten-year vision
Sample Benchmarks
• 17 “emerging economies” plus Kenya, Malawi, Benin have averaged close to 2% or higher GDP per capita growth for 12
years
• Ghana, Zambia, Mauritania , Comoros, Kenya, currently on the threshold*
• 8 countries averaged 5% agricultural growth from 2002-2006
• Today, only 25 percent of African households have access to power.
• Between 1995 and 2005, the poverty rate declined by about one percentage point a year.
*Threshold is $1,000 per capita income
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