Transcript Implamentation Plan - European Soil Database

Sustainable Land Management
through Soil Organic Carbon
Management and Sequestration
The GEFSOC Modelling System
Mohamed Sessay
Eleanor Milne
Overview of Presentation
• Background
• Why assess SOC stocks and change
• Regional Approaches
• GEFSOC Project: Aims and Objectives
• Methodology: GEFSOC Project
Approach
• Final Output
Background
Importance of Soil Organic Carbon

Soils represent largest terrestrial stock of C,
holding between 1400 x1015 g (Post et al 1982)
and 1500 x 1015 g C (Batjes, 1996)

Approximately 2x the amount in atmosphere
and 3x amount in terrestrial vegetation

Majority of C is held in form of soil organic
carbon (SOC) (Batjes & Sombreck, 1997)

Changes in terrestrial SOC stocks (both increase and
decrease) can be of global significance and may eithe
mitigate or worsen climate change

SOC is vital for ecosystem functions with major
influence on:
- Soil structure, Water holding capacity
- CEC
- Ability to form complexes with metal ion
- Fertility (to store nutrients)
- Above and below ground biodiversity
Why Assess SOC Stocks and Changes?
Knowledge of SOC stocks and changes would help
us device plans for:

Appropriate management of soils to increase
SOC levels to increase productivity and
sustainability of agricultural systems

The sustainable management of ecosystems

The mitigation of GHG emissions

The likely impact of climate change on
soils/ecosystems in the future (Jones et al 2004)
The Kyoto Protocol

The Kyoto Protocol - CO2 emissions can be offset
against removal of C from the atmosphere

1st commitment period 2008 – 2012

Article 3.3, forestry activities

Article 3.4, management of agricultural soils

Changes before 2008?

UNFCCC -Inventories of CO2 emissions from LUC
Why assess SOC Stocks and Changes?
SOC is sensitive to changes in land use
SOC decline
Native
Ecosystem
Rothamsted long term
experiments
Versailles long term
experiments
Agriculture
Why assess SOC Stocks and Changes?
Knowledge of SOC stocks and changes would help
us device plans for:

Appropriate management of soils to increase
SOC levels to increase productivity and
sustainability of agricultural systems

The sustainable management of ecosystems

The mitigation of GHG emissions

The likely impact of climate change on
soils/ecosystems in the future (Jones et al 2004)
Important Areas Globally
The Tropics
Rates of land use change greatest
in the tropics
Feed 70% of the population (Lal
and Sanchez 1992)
Increasing demand for land will be
met by converting forest and pasture
– C release
~ 26% of global SOC stocks are in
the tropics (Batjes 1996)
Relatively little information on soils
and how they react to land use
change
Important Areas Globally
Drylands
Low SOC stocks per unit area
Occupy ~47% of land surface (Lal
2003)
Many areas are degraded with the
potential for rehabilitation
Problem of Scale
Plot Scale
Global Scale
Regional and
National Scale
Many studies, site
specific, limited
value
Informative,
limited affect on
policy at ground
level
Allows consideration of
varying land use policy,
relevant to resource
management
A generically applicable systems for estimating SOC stocks
at national or regional scale is necessary to:

Increase the accuracy of global estimates of SOC stocks
and changes

Understand the consequences of land use change for the
global C cycle

Understand the GHG mitigation potential of changes in
land use/land management

Identify geographic areas with potential for C release or
sequestration

Allow countries in tropical and arid areas to take advantage
of opportunities presented through global carbon trading,
(CDMs)
Regional Approaches
Approaches used estimate changes in
SOM/SOC include
IPCC inventory method:




Series of factors (climate, soil type, history, tillage &
productivity)
20 year period
Identifies changes between first and last year of the 20
year period
Simple accounting method
Soil C stock is a function of soil C under native vegetation
and changes in land use or land management
Regional Approaches
Statistical approaches:

Regression based approaches
(Gupta and Rao 1994, Smith et al 2000, 2001)

Regression approaches based on
spatial soil databases (Kern and Johnson 1993,
Kotto-Same et al 1997)
Local variability in soil conditions
Process Based Modelling Approach
3. Dynamic SOM models linked to spatial data
bases
Simulation
Spatial Results
model
Spatial Databases
Plant
Growth
Residues
CO2
Active
SOM
CO2
CO2
CO2
Slow
SOM
Passive
SOM
CO2
Aims of GEFSOC Project
– To improve national assessment methodologies
relating to land use options and UNFCC
requirements and to support core activities of
the GEF IEM OP and IPCC by developing and
demonstrating a generic tool that quantifies
impact of land use/management and climate
change scenarios on carbon sequestration in
soils at the national and regional scale
Specific Research Objectives

Identify and use long term experimental data sets to
systematically evaluate and refine modelling techniques to
quantify carbon sequestration potential in tropical soils

Define, collate and format national-scale soils, climate and land
use data sets to use them in development of a coupled modellingGIS tool to estimate soil carbon stocks

Demonstrate this tool by estimating current soil organic carbon
stocks at the national and regional scale (using The Brazil
Amazon, The Indo-Gangetic Plains, India, Jordan and Kenya as
case studies) and to compare these estimates with the existing
techniques of combining soil mapping units and interpolating
point data

Quantify the impact of defined changes in land use on carbon
sequestration in soils with a view to assisting in the formulation of
improved policies to optimise resource use in the four case study
countries Brazil, India, Jordan and Kenya
Case Studies
Jordan
Brazilian
Amazon
Kenya
Indogangetic Plains, India
Methodology
ASSIST POLICY
FORMULATION
STAGE 5. ASSESS CHANGES IN
SOC STOCKS
Quantify the impact of land
use changes on c
sequestration in soil between
2000 - 2030
STAGE 4. ASSESS
CURRENT SOC STOCKS
For the year 2000
SOIL C
MODELS
COMPARE
EXISTING
TECHNIQUES
GIS
STAGE 3. SOM
MODEL/GIS LINKAGE
STAGE 1. MODEL
EVALUATION
Identify long term
experimental
data sets
STAGE 2. MODEL INPUT
DATA
Collate & format national
scale datasets of soils
climate and land use
GEFSOC Project Approach

Two soil organic carbon models were chosen

Roth-C (developed in the UK) is a SOM model that accounts
for the effects of soil type, climate, moisture content and
plant cover on turnover of organic C in soils. Uses monthly
time-step to calculate total SOC and microbial biomass
content

Century (developed in the United States) is a general
ecosystem model which stimulates the dynamic of C, N, P
and S in different plant/soil systems. Has plant productivity,
water movement and nitrogen leaching sub models
Roth C
Century

Evaluated under many conditions (including
forestry, grasslands and arable in the tropics)

Two of the most widely used SOM models

Good performance in comparison of 9 models
(Powlson et al 1996, Smith et al 1997)

Used in regional applications

Model GIS linkage
Rothamsted Carbon Model (Roth C)
Organic
DPM
Decay
CO2
Inputs
RPM
Decay
BIO
HUM
Decay
CO2
Decay
Decay
BIO
Inert Organic Matter
Decay
HUM
DPM = decomposable plant material
RPM = resistant plant material
Colman and Jenkinson (1996)
BIO = microbial biomass
HUM = humus
Century Ecosystem Model (Century)
Parton et al (1987)
Stage 1. Model Evaluation
ASSIST POLICY
FORMULATION
STAGE 5. ASSESS CHANGES IN
SOC STOCKS
Quantify the impact of land
use changes on c
sequestration in soil between
2000 - 2030
STAGE 4. ASSESS
CURRENT SOC STOCKS
For the year 2000
SOIL C
MODELS
COMPARE
EXISTING
TECHNIQUES
GIS
STAGE 3. SOM
MODEL/GIS LINKAGE
STAGE 1. MODEL
EVALUATION
Identify long term
experimental
data sets
STAGE 2. MODEL INPUT
DATA
Collate & format national
scale datasets of soils
climate and land use
Stage 2. National Data
ASSIST POLICY
FORMULATION
STAGE 5. ASSESS CHANGES IN
SOC STOCKS
Quantify the impact of land
use changes on c
sequestration in soil between
2000 - 2030
STAGE 4. ASSESS
CURRENT SOC STOCKS
For the year 2000
SOIL C
MODELS
COMPARE
EXISTING
TECHNIQUES
GIS
STAGE 3. SOM
MODEL/GIS LINKAGE
STAGE 1. MODEL
EVALUATION
Identify long term
experimental
data sets
STAGE 2. MODEL INPUT
DATA
Collate & format national
scale datasets of soils
climate and land use
Stage 3: Model/GIS coupling
ASSIST POLICY
FORMULATION
STAGE 5. ASSESS CHANGES IN
SOC STOCKS
Graphical user interface
Quantify the impact of land
use changes on c
sequestration in soil between
2000 - 2030
STAGE 4. ASSESS
CURRENT SOC STOCKS
Program modules
For the year 2000
SOIL C
MODELS
IPCC
COMPARE
EXISTING
TECHNIQUES
GIS
STAGE 3. SOM
MODEL/GIS LINKAGE
STAGE 1. MODEL
EVALUATION
Identify long term
experimental
data sets
STAGE 2. MODEL INPUT
DATA
Collate & format national
scale datasets of soils
climate and land use
Stage 4: Current Stocks
ASSIST POLICY
FORMULATION
Current land
use
STAGE 5. ASSESS CHANGES IN
SOC STOCKS
Quantify the impact of land
use changes on c
sequestration in soil between
2000 - 2030
Global level
information +
STAGE 4. ASSESS
CURRENT SOC STOCKS
For the year 2000
Landscape
level
SOIL C
MODELS
COMPARE
EXISTING
TECHNIQUES
GIS
STAGE 3. SOM
MODEL/GIS LINKAGE
STAGE 1. MODEL
EVALUATION
Identify long term
experimental
data sets
STAGE 2. MODEL INPUT
DATA
Collate & format national
scale datasets of soils
climate and land use
Stage 5. Future Stocks
ASSIST POLICY
FORMULATION
STAGE 5. ASSESS CHANGES IN
SOC STOCKS
Quantify the impact of land
use changes on c
sequestration in soil between
2000 - 2030
STAGE 4. ASSESS
CURRENT SOC STOCKS
For the year 2000
SOIL C
MODELS
COMPARE
EXISTING
TECHNIQUES
GIS
STAGE 3. SOM
MODEL/GIS LINKAGE
STAGE 1. MODEL
EVALUATION
Identify long term
experimental
data sets
STAGE 2. MODEL INPUT
DATA
Collate & format national
scale datasets of soils
climate and land use
Regional carbon stocks: current and future
SOC stocks in the 0-20cm soil layer for the year 1990
SOC stocks
(t C ha-1)
Regional carbon stocks: current and future
SOC stocks in the 0-20cm soil layer for the year 2030
SOC stocks
(t C ha-1)
The Final Output
A transferable system for estimating SOC
stocks and changes in a range of soils and
climatic conditions (The GEFSOC Modeling
System), designed to help in formulating
national and sub-national land management
and carbon sequestration policy by:
(i)
Quantifying current soil organic carbon stocks at
national and sub-national level and
(ii)
Analyzing the impacts of land management options on
carbon storage , GHG emissions and sequestration
possibilities
Website Reference
The GEFSOC Modelling System can be
downloaded free of charge via the project
website
http://www.nrel.colostate.edu/projects/gef
soc-uk
And the UNEP website www.unep.org
And is accompanied by a use manual
THANK YOU
FOR
YOUR ATTENTION