Transcript Slide 1

Resilient Tourism
Preparing for extreme weather and climate
change in the South West
South West Adaptation Response
Climate SouthWest focuses on climate change impacts and
adaptation. Its mission is:
To help the South West of England to adapt sustainably
to the impacts of climate change
• Regional partnership funded by a range of public and
private organisations
Climate SouthWest Funders
suports Climate SouthWest’s Tourism Sector
Group. New business members welcome!
Presentation Outline
1. The Science of Climate Change: a brief overview
2. Extreme Weather: the SW is already vulnerable
3. Future Climate Change: what can the SW expect?
4. Tourism in the SW: why climate change matters
5. Preparing for Climate Change: the business case
6. Taking Action: how can businesses adapt?
7. Conclusion and resources to support businesses
The Science of Climate
Change:
a brief overview
Weather and Climate
Climate
= the average weather
in a locality over a 30
year period
Weather
= what it is doing
outside right now
Observed changes in the SW
• Between 1961 and 2006…
• Ave. summer temp. increased by 1.41 °C
• Max. summer temp. increased by 1.65 °C
• Summer precipitation decreased by 8.8%
• Winter precipitation increased by 15.9%
• Autumn precipitation increased by 28.6%
• Sea Level in Newlyn has risen 20 cm since 1920
• 9 out of the past 10 years have now brought serious flooding to the UK
• Globally, the 10 hottest years on record have all occurred since 1997
Global Temperature Increase
Source: Met Office Hadley Centre (2010)
The greenhouse effect
Natural factors cannot explain recent
warming
Recent warming can be simulated when
manmade factors are included:
Some change is inevitable
Global Mean Temperature Rise
6
IPCC Emission Scenarios
High
Medium
Low
5
We are locked into some change
because of past emissions
World Stabilisation Scenario
Temperature Rise oC
4
Peak in emissions at
2016 followed by an
annual decrease of 4%
3
2
Start to diverge from 2030-40
1
0
1991
2011
Temp rise is difference from 1750
2031
2051
2071
2091
Year
2111
2131
2151
2171
2191
Mitigation
• reducing our emissions of
greenhouse gases, such
as carbon dioxide (CO2)
© Environment Agency
Adaptation
• preparing for the
unavoidable impacts of
climate change
Extreme Weather:
The South West is vulnerable to
the existing climate
2004 flash flooding - Boscastle
• Intense rainfall and topography = rapid
rising of river levels
• 7 Helicopters airlifted 100 people
• 29 out of the 31 Cornwall County Fire
Brigade Stations were involved
• Infrastructure damage = up to £2 million
• Tourist centre out of action
Photo by Pam Durrant
2007 floods Gloucestershire
• 1 000s homeless
• 350 000 without water for up to 17 days
• 42 000 without power for 42 hours
Slad Road, Stroud (Bernard Wakefield-Heath)
http://www.bbc.co.uk/gloucestershire
• 10 000 people trapped on M5 and railways
• £14.3M - emergency repair and response
costs for Gloucestershire businesses
•Businesses out of action for months!!
(Pitt Review, 2008)
http://news.bbc.co.uk 23.7.07
2008 tidal flooding - Poole
© Environment Agency
2003 Heatwave – Bournemouth & Poole
• High temperatures (31+°C) attract record
numbers of visitors
• Accommodation full
• 20% more traffic than usual
• Pollution more than double Gov. Health
Limit
• 700 parking tickets issued over weekend
• Emergency vehicles access blocked
© Bournemouth Tourism
The temperatures during the 2003 heatwave are likely to become
normal in summer by the 2040s
2006 Heatwave - Somerset
• Transport disruption:
- Higher visitor numbers = increased traffic
-Tarmac melted
• Incr. in tourism between 14th & 21st July
- 7161 compared with 3527 in 2005
• Visitor discomfort
© Somerset Tourism
• Bouncy castle out of action because rubber was burning people
• Risks to health
– “Heat wave leads to ozone pollution in district” (South Somerset District
Council, 4 July 2006)
– Increase in elderly patients admitted to A&E Weston General Hospital for
dehydration
Future Climate Change:
What can the SW expect?
Warmer summers
Increased Tourism
Increased Heat stress
Infrastructure risks
Risks to biodiversity
Heat related deaths
Risk to Food Security
Map showing average summer temperature change,
medium emissions scenario, 2080s
But the temperature on the hottest
day of the year could increase by
up to 10ºC
South-West England
central estimate
Medium emissions
By the 2080s the change is very unlikely to be cooler than +2.1ºC or hotter than +6.4ºC
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Drier summers (on average!)
Reduced stream
flow and water
quality
Increased drought
Potential benefits for
tourism
Subsidence
Serious water stress
Map showing average summer precipitation change,
medium emissions scenario, 2080s
South West England
central estimate
Medium emissions
Decreased crop
yields
By the 2080s the change is very unlikely to drier than -49% or wetter than +6%
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Wetter, milder winters
Increased winter
flooding
Increased subsidence
Risks to urban
drainage
Severe Transport
disruption
Map showing average winter precipitation change,
medium emissions scenario, 2080s
Risks of national
Infrastructure
South West
central estimate
Medium Emissions
By the 2080s the change is very unlikely to be drier than +6% or wetter than +54%
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Rising sea levels
2020
Impacts:
Weston-super-Mare: 12 cm
Newlyn:
13 cm
Poole:
12 cm
Increased coastal
flooding
Reduction in size of
some beaches
Changes to
biodiversity
2050
Weston-super-Mare: 26 cm
Newlyn:
29 cm
Poole:
26 cm
Figures shown are at the 50%
probability level, high emissions
© Environment Agency
Increased erosion e.g.
to coastal footpaths
Note. Global average sea level rise:
1961-2003 = 1.8mm/year;
1993-2003 = 3.1mm/year (IPCC, 2007)
More frequent and intense weather events
i.e. Floods, Droughts and Heatwaves
Impacts
Damage to properties
Disruption to deliveries
© Environment Agency
Delays to visitors
© Environment Agency
Health risks for staff
and visitors
Drought impact on
green outdoor spaces
© Environment Agency
© Environment Agency
A Changing Climate
By the 2040s, the South West can expect:
• Hotter, drier summers:
– 2.3oC warmer (2003 heatwave = 2.3 above ave.)
– 13% drier
• Wetter, warmer winters:
– 14% wetter
• Sea level rise:
– Up to 20cm
• More extreme events:
– flash flooding
– droughts
– heat waves
Tourism in the SW:
Why climate change matters
The value of tourism in the SW
• Resident population of 5.2 million
• 21.2 million staying and 96.8 million day visitors in 2008
• £9 billion to the economy annually (08) – approx 8% of
GVA
• Supports approx 300,000
jobs
Weather is a key factor for tourism
• 55% of respondents to SW Visitors Survey (2009) in Poole stated their
choice of destination was influenced by the weather
• Extreme weather events can affect visitor numbers
- Occupancy levels in Bournemouth incr. in 2003 (Heatwave year)
- Occupancy levels in Gloucestershire decr. in 2007 (Flood year)
(see SW Tourism UKCP09 Case Study, 2010)
• Lack of certainty re: the weather can be a reason for people not to visit
the SW
- “Whatever money I have nowadays I put towards a holiday with guaranteed
sunshine rather than risk it on holidays in England”
(Quote from Non-Visitor Study April 2009)
Climate risks for tourism
• 20% of community feel their area already receives more visitors than it
can cope with
• Increased insurance costs
•Staff and visitor health and safety
© Environment Agency
• Increased pressure on the environment
• Flooding
• Increased pressure on transport infrastructure
• Coastal locations threatened by sea level rise and increased erosion
• Damage to historic buildings and other heritage sites/visitor attractions
Climate opportunities for
tourism
• Potentially longer season
• Job creation
• Diversification
• Tourism in ‘off peak’ periods
• Reduced winter heating costs
• New market opportunities for certain products and services
Preparing for Climate
Change:
The Business Case
Attitudes to preparing for climate
change (SW Tourism Business Survey 2010)
•
65% believe climate change could lead to increased
extreme weather
•
59% think businesses need to adapt
•
Those who had already been affected were more likely
to see preparing for a change a medium to high priority
than those who hadn’t
•
47% see preparing for change as a low priority or not a
priority at all
Attitudes – Quotes from businesses
(SW Tourism Business Survey 2010)
Some are aware of the issues:
• Our particular business is small and whatever will affect it, as far as climate
change is concerned, will affect us too, so we are gradually making
changes, as we need them ourselves.
Others do not see a challenge, or do not believe they will be affected:
• Bring on global warming and let's have some hot summers! Rev those
engines and let’s get cooking!
•
I have read leaflets etc and aware of consequences but think at the moment
there is little for me to do e.g. unless there’s a landslide flooding no problem
as I live on a hill
Others recognise the issues, but see preparing as a low priority:
• One day it will get more attention from me...lack the time at the moment,
though I'm sure a catastrophe would focus the mind!
The Business Case: Weather
100
86
78
80
60
39
40
35
20
13
8
7
6
Drought
Heatwave
3
0
Heavy
rainfall
Snow and High winds
ice
conditions
Flooding
Storm
surges
Coastal
erosion
Sea level
rise
SW Tourism Business Survey 2010
56% have been affected by extreme weather
events in the past
The Business Case: Insurance
In the SW, a 2°C rise could increase annual insured flood losses by 19%
- leading to a potential pricing increase of up to 16%.
A 4°C rise could increase losses by 29%
- leading to a potential pricing increase of up to 27%.
‘The Financial Risks of Climate Change’ (ABI, 2009)
Key messages for businesses:
 Climate adaptation is likely to become part of insurance
criteria
 Well prepared businesses could save money on premiums
 Unprepared businesses may not secure insurance cover
The Business Case: Reputation
• Growing awareness
– 69% cite flooding as one of the most
common effects of climate change
– Businesses need to show they care
and are ahead of the game
© Environment Agency
•
Responsible business
-
© Environment Agency
Reputation as employer
Reputation to customers
People care
The Business Case
• Avoiding unexpected costs:
–
–
–
–
Business interruption
Damage costs
Increased insurance premiums
Future regulation, litigation or liabilities
• Exploiting opportunities:
– Expanding / new markets due to changing customer
demands
– Reputation, being a market leader
Taking Action:
How can businesses adapt?
Adaptation = Risk Management
© Environment Agency
© Environment Agency
Changes to
climate
Weather
events
Impacts
Consequences
Adaptation requires knowledge of your:
vulnerability
resilience
Preparing for change - Top Tips
6. Plan ahead
7. Check your insurance
8. Practical actions
© Environment Agency
1. Identify the effects to your
business
9. Raise awareness
10. Review Health &
Safety procedures
2. Check your flood risk
3. Get help and advice
4. Learn from others
5. Reduce risk
© Mark Christopher
Visitor Communications
• Tell your customers about what you are doing to
keep them safe
• Opportunities
– potentially hotter drier summers
may encourage more ‘stay-cations’
© Bournemouth Tourism
• Think about, and communicate what your
visitors may need e.g. sun protection
Flood Case Study:
Old Mill Hotel, Bath
• Temporary flood boards
• ‘Tanked’ the underneath of the
restaurant – i.e. sealed it
• Management training
© Old Mill Hotel
• The laundry store was moved from the basement
• Close contact is kept with the Environment Agency to monitor the risk
• Catering facilities and staff are prepared - able to move a second kitchen
and function room upstairs
Drought Case Study:
High Post Golf Club, Wiltshire
“Plan for future climate change and
don’t be frightened to bang the drum
and get some publicity for being proactive – it’s usually free marketing!”
Peter Hickling, High Post manager
• Drought-resistant grasses
© High Post Golf Club
• Water allocation process uses less water
• Likelihood of disease reduced – less fungicide needed
• Increased reputation – recognised as ‘on course for sustainability’
• Member support gained through open forum
Case Study: The Scarlet, Mawgan Porth
© The Scarlet
• ‘Sea Thrift’ green roof:
• Helps keep the building cool in summer, warm in winter
• Supports biodiversity in insects and butterflies
• Water efficiency measures:
• Grey water (recycled from bedroom sinks & baths) used to flush toilets
• Natural swimming pool uses rainwater and requires no chlorination
• Rainwater is used for landscaping and to top up the natural pool
• Green landscaping & soakaway - reduces run-off, decreasing flood-risk & has a
cooling effect
Case Study: Glastonbury Festival
“We were very lucky that we didn't have
people drown when we had six foot of water
in our campsite.
So you have to learn from this and you have
to adapt, otherwise your business may not
survive.”
Robert Kearle, Environmental Manager,
Following severe floods in 2005 steps to increase resilience were taken, including:
• Drainage systems improved
• Festival tents are tied down in
case of windy weather
• Welfare officers to look after
people in the event of flooding,
high temperatures or storms
Case study: Slapton Line
Partnership
Coastal erosion means that the coastal
road can only be maintained for a
maximum of 30 -50 years
Adaptation measures include:
• Signage for alternative routes
• Contingency plan for road closures
• Emphasising attraction of nature reserve
• Business Forum to discuss challenges and opportunities
Conclusion and
resources to support
businesses
Conclusions
• Preparing for extreme weather is a ‘now’ issue
• We need to plan for current and future vulnerability
• Planning proactively will be more cost effective than
reacting
• Opportunities and benefits for those who are
resilient and able to adapt
© Environment Agency
•
A business risk like any other and should be managed accordingly
Preparing for Change:
climate-proof your tourism business
www.climateprepared.com
“Changing Climate –
Changing Business”
DVD
A short film featuring 11 tourism
businesses in the SW who are taking
action to adapt to climate change
A full 20 minute version and a 6 minute summary version available at:
http://www.swtourismalliance.org.uk/our-strategic-work/sustainabilitywork/adapting-to-a-changing-climate/
Other resources
• Caravan and campsite flood risk
management pack
• Business Areas Climate Impacts
Assessment Tool
• ‘Changing Climate Changing
Business’ DVD
• Online toolkit for tourism businesses
www.climateprepared.com
• Case Studies
www.oursouthwest.com/climate/casestudies
Preparing for flooding
www.environment-agency.gov.uk
More information and links to the tools and full
case studies shown are available at
www.oursouthwest.com/climate
Contact Climate SouthWest on tel: 01392 352230 or e: [email protected]