Transcript Slide 1

Climate Change, Limits to Growth, and the Imperative for Socialism
Dr. Minqi Li, Assistant Professor
Department of Economics, University of Utah
1645 E. Campus Center Dr., Salt Lake City, UT 84112
E-mail: [email protected]; Phone: 801-581-7697
York University, Toronto, Canada, April 24-27, 2008
Paper presented to the Historical Materialism Conference
The Coming Catastrophes …
• Currently the global average temperature is 0.8 ◦C
higher than the pre-industrial level (1750), and growing at
a rate of 0.2 ◦C per decade. “Thermal inertia” implies a
further long-term warming of 0.6 ◦C
• With a global warming of 2 ◦C, widespread drought and
desertification; major glacial losses; 15-40 percent species
extinction; and initiation of substantial climate feedbacks
(tundra loss and methane release, acidification of oceans,
ocean and soil carbon cycles)
• With a global warming of 3 ◦C, sea level rise by 25
meters or more; world’s rainforests destroyed; tropical
and sub-tropical zones uninhabitable; 90 percent species
distinction and a possible reduction of global population
by 80 percent
Global Warming Emergency
• IPCC (reports) seriously underestimated the rate and
effects of climate change
• Arctic summer sea ice could completely disappear as
soon as 2013
• A significant tipping point has been passed: greatly
accelerating the melting of Greenland ice-sheets; sea level
could rise by five meters or more within this century;
implies a further 0.3 ◦C warming
• So the long-term warming implied by the current level
of greenhouse gases is already dangerously close to 2 ◦C
Greenhouse Gases
• Current atmospheric concentration: CO2 384 ppm; CO2equivalent (long-term) 460 ppm; CO2-equivalent (total)
380 ppm
• Pre-industrial CO2-equivalent: 280 ppm
• IPCC estimate of “climate sensitivity”: every doubling
of atmospheric concentration of CO2-equivalent results in
3 ◦C warming
• IPCC: to prevent 2 ◦C warming, atmospheric
concentration of CO2-equivalent should stabilize at below
450 ppm
• James Hansen: long-term climate sensitivity is likely to
be six degrees; to prevent 2 ◦C warming, atmospheric
concentration of CO2-equivalent needs to stabilize at
below 350 ppm
Carbon Emissions and Carbon “Sinks”
• Global total emissions: 10 billion tons of carbon; net
emissions: 6 billion tons of carbon; currently atmospheric
concentration of CO2 rises by 2 ppm a year
• Annual emissions from fossil fuels: 7.5 billion tons
• Annual emissions from agriculture: 2.5 billion tons
• Ocean and terrestrial carbon sinks: - 4 billion tons
• IPCC: to prevent 2-2.4 ◦C warming, global total
emissions need to peak by 2015 and fall by 50-85 percent
from 2000 levels
• 2.4 ◦C warming = 2.7 ◦C warming = Humanity’s
collective suicide
• To stabilize atmospheric concentration of CO2equivalent at 350 ppm, the world needs to immediately
stop all fossil fuels emissions and wait for 60 years
Technical Options
• Fossil fuels have been the material basis of capitalist
civilization and global economic growth
• World Primary Energy Supplies: Oil (35%); Coal (25%);
Natural Gas (20%); Nuclear (7%); Hydro (2%);
Renewables (< 1%); Biomass and Wastes (10%, mostly
traditional biomass)
• Nuclear: pollution; safety issues; limited supply of
uranium
• Hydro: limited potential; environmental problems
• Biomass: serious ecological problems; limited
availability of productive land and fresh water; latest
studies: biomass emits more greenhouse gases than fossil
fuels
• Wind and Solar: expensive; intermittent; long-term
physical limits (available land); can only be used for
electricity generation (electricity accounts for 20% of
world final energy consumption)
Arizona to become 'Persian Gulf' of solar energy?
http://www.cnn.com/2008/TECH/02/22/solar.plant.ap/ind
ex.html
Spanish Abengoa Solar and Arizona Public Service
announced a 280-megawatt solar thermal plant in Arizona,
estimated to cost one billion US dollars
Assume:
• Annual rate of depreciation: 5%
• Annual profits and taxes: 15% of capital cost
• Plant capacity utilization: 25%
• Total annual price: (5% + 15%) * $ 1 billion = $ 200 million = 20,000
million US cents
• Total annual electricity production: 280,000 kilowatt-hours * 8760
hours * 0.25 = 613.2 million kilowatt-hours
• Solar thermal electricity price: 32.6 cents per kilowatt-hour (six times
as expensive as conventional electricity; US wholesale electricity price:
5 cents per kilowatt-hour)
Emissions Cut and Economic Growth
Greenhouse Gases Emissions = Economic Output (GDP)
* Energy Consumption per Unit of Output * Emissions
per Unit of Energy Consumption
Assume:
• Global emissions peak in 2010
• Global energy intensity falls by 33 to 55 percent from
2010 to 2050
• 50 percent of global final consumption of fossil fuels is
electrified by 2050
• 50-100 percent of the global electricity production that
currently uses fossil fuels is de-carbonized by 2050
Scenarios of Emissions Reduction and World Economic Growth
(Stabilizing CO2-equivalent in atmosphere at 490 ppm, 2010-2050, annual rate of change)
Decline in Emissions
Decline in Energy
Economic Growth
Intensity
Intensity
Rate
Historical: 1973-2005
0.3%
0.9%
3.0%
Scenario 1
1.0%
1.0%
-0.4%
Scenario 2
1.0%
1.5%
0.1%
Scenario 3
1.0%
2.0%
0.6%
Scenario 4
1.7%
1.0%
0.3%
Scenario 5
1.7%
1.5%
0.8%
Scenario 6
1.7%
2.0%
1.3%
Scenario 7
2.7%
1.0%
1.3%
Scenario 8
2.7%
1.5%
1.8%
Scenario 9
2.7%
2.0%
2.3%
Source: Historical data for world economic growth, energy consumption, and emissions are from
World Bank, World Development Indicators Online 2008.
Scenarios of Emissions Reduction and World Economic Growth
(Stabilizing CO2-equivalent in atmosphere at 445 ppm, 2010-2050, annual rate of change)
Decline in Emissions
Decline in Energy
Economic Growth
Intensity
Intensity
Rate
Historical: 1973-2005
0.3%
0.9%
3.0%
Scenario 1
1.0%
1.0%
-3.4%
Scenario 2
1.0%
1.5%
-2.9%
Scenario 3
1.0%
2.0%
-2.4%
Scenario 4
1.7%
1.0%
-2.7%
Scenario 5
1.7%
1.5%
-2.2%
Scenario 6
1.7%
2.0%
-1.7%
Scenario 7
2.7%
1.0%
-1.7%
Scenario 8
2.7%
1.5%
-1.2%
Scenario 9
2.7%
2.0%
-0.7%
Source: Historical data for world economic growth, energy consumption, and emissions are from
World Bank, World Development Indicators Online 2008.
Conclusion
• To prevent global catastrophes, the global economy (and
global population) needs to be substantially downsized
(Scenario 1-3 in previous table implies an absolute
decline of the global economy by 60-75 percent, roughly
returning to 1960 levels)
• But, capitalism is based on the endless accumulation of
capital (it must grow to survive!)
• Under capitalism, the humanity is set for collective selfdestruction
• Only global socialism can save the earth as well as the
humanity