Transcript Climate Change

Teaching the Physics
of
Climate Change
Part 2
This ppt available on
www.vicphysics.org
Keith Burrows
- Teachers
AIP Education Committee
- Teaching the Science of Climate Change
PHYSCON Feb 2008
Human induced changes
 How can we understand it?
– It’s all a matter of physics!
IPCC SynRep
Human induced changes
 How can we understand it?
– Computer models are the only way of taking all
this into account.
– Use basic physics to calculate movement of heat,
air, water, between small blocks of the
atmosphere.
– Here’s the basic physics:
Human induced changes
 Climate models and their predictions.
– These are just F = ma
applied to moving fluids
– This is conservation of
mass
– This governs the way
heat flows between
systems
Human induced changes
 Climate models and their predictions.
– The climate system is modelled
as cells of air (or water) and the
equations are applied to see
how much air/heat flows
between each pair of cells
– This is repeated all around the
Earth
– The models have improved by
making the cells smaller
– They are now about 110 km
square by 1 km high
Human induced changes
 Climate models and their predictions.
– The initial conditions have to be fed into the
model and then it generates weather and climate
patterns over hours, days, years or centuries!
– Here is the result of one:
Courtesy of Graeme Pearman
Human induced changes
 Climate models and their predictions.
– Models are tested to see if they generate past
known climate patterns.
– They are becoming more and more accurate.
over hours, days (7 day forecasts), years or
centuries!
– Anthropogenic factors can be added/removed
 The science of climate change
Human induced changes
 Climate models and their predictions.
– The IPCC has just released the AR4 Synthesis
Report which contains the most detailed and
worrying predictions yet.
Human induced changes
 Climate models and their predictions.
– The IPCC has just released the AR4 Synthesis
Report which contains the most detailed and
worrying predictions yet.
Human induced changes
 Climate models and their predictions.
– The following diagrams are taken from the
AR4 Synthesis Report
Human induced changes
 There is one problem.
 The IPCC report is based on thoroughly
reviewed work which is now several years
old.
 Because of the processes it goes through
it is very conservative.
 A number of developments have occurred
since it was put together.
Human induced changes
 The understanding of the
various feedback effects
has improved considerably
 This is a report given to the
UK parliament June 2007.
 It outlines recent research
showing that feedback
effects are more worrying
than previously thought.
 Climate science
Overview
– Earth’s energy balance
– Interactions between EMR and the atmosphere
– The effect of changes in the system
 Human induced changes
–
–
–
–
The release of millions of years of stored energy
Is the climate changing?
How can we understand it?
Climate models and their predictions.
 What can we do?
–
–
–
–
Fossil fuels
Reduce energy use
Lower CO2 options
Sustainable options
 The human response
– Sceptics, deniers, avoiders
– Change the light bulbs
– The need for real change
 Education
– That’s where we come in
What can we do?
 Fossil fuels
– We have to reduce them but we are extremely
dependant on them
What can we do?
 Fossil fuels
– Cutting car use has to
be a priority
ABS
What can we do?
 Fossil fuels
– One of the dirtiest power stations in the world!
What can we do?
 Reduce energy use
– Better forms of transport
What can we do?
 Reduce energy use
– Better forms of transport – maybe these?
What can we do?
 Reduce energy use
– Better forms of transport – certainly these
What can we do?
 Reduce energy use
– Better forms of transport – definitely these
What can we do?
 Reduce energy use
– These are a problem!
What can we do?
 Reduce energy
use
– This could be
fun. Maybe we
need to be a bit
more relaxed
about getting
places!
What can we do?
 Reduce energy
use
– Maybe video
conferencing
could reduce
our need for
‘business’
travel?
What can we do?
 Lower CO2 options
– Sequestration of CO2 from power stations - ?
– More efficient coal stations
– Combined cycle gas generators
What can we do?
 Lower CO2 options
– Nuclear ?
What can we do?
 Sustainable options
60 kilowatt (10 year ago)
1300 kilowatt now
What can we do?
 Sustainable options
We make per day about:
5 – 10 kWh
Feed in to grid about
3 – 6 kWh
Draw from grid about
2 – 4 kWh
What can we do?
 Sustainable options
Gas used for hot water
since installation last
October ago:
NONE at all
What can we do?
 Sustainable options
What can we do?
 Sustainable options
– Geothermal – ‘hot rocks’
– Potentially a very large resources
– (get pic!)
What can we do?
 Sustainable options
– The ‘base load problem’?
– We are no where near having that problem yet!
Spot the
renewables!
What can we do?
 Sustainable options – base load?
– Wide distribution of sources evens out the load
– Linking them is not as difficult as we are told
– Solar feeds power in at peak use time
– Pumped storage is used now (Snowy, Tas)
– Other storage options possible in future
– HVDC
What can we do?
 Sustainable options – HVDC
– Energy carried in transmission line is area
under the V² graph
– V is limited by corona discharge to ~ 800 kV
(hence 500 kV AC lines)
– So energy carried by DC is twice that of same
value peak voltage
DC power
AC power
What can we do?
 Sustainable options – HVDC
– High Voltage DC transmission
– Basslink provides peak and stores excess
What can we do?
 Sustainable options – HVDC
– Making big difference to long
distance transmission
– Carries twice the power
– Can go 1000’s of km
(AC < 1000 km)
What can we do?
 Sustainable options – HVDC
– High power high voltage semiconductors have
made the difference
What can we do?
 Sustainable options
– Area needed
to collect ALL
of Australia’s
energy use.
What can we do?
What can we do?
 Sustainable options
Where are the solar collectors?
What can we do?
 Sustainable options
This is in sunny Germany!
What can we do?
 Sustainable options
We have to get away from this...
What can we do?
 Sustainable options
...to this
 Climate science
Overview
– Earth’s energy balance
– Interactions between EMR and the atmosphere
– The effect of changes in the system
 Human induced changes
–
–
–
–
The release of millions of years of stored energy
Is the climate changing?
How can we understand it?
Climate models and their predictions.
 What can we do?
–
–
–
–
Fossil fuels
Reduce energy use
Lower CO2 options
Sustainable options
 The human response
– Sceptics, deniers, avoiders
– Change the light bulbs
– The need for real change
 Education
– That’s where we come in
The human response
 Sceptics, deniers, avoiders
Bolt talks of “Alarmist of the
Year Tim Flannery” flying
around the world, then has a
go at the UN Climate Change
conference in Bali next month
where 12000 people will fly in:
“Hypocrisy is too small a word
for so monstrous a circus. If it
wasn't for the fact the planet
actually hasn't warmed for nine
years now, I'd cry.”
The human response
 Sceptics, deniers, avoiders
The human response
 Sceptics, deniers, avoiders
– “We are in a cooling phase” Yes but…
The human response
 Change the light bulbs
– Yes, and turn down the thermostat,
– but that is a very tiny start
The human response
– Is there
something a
bit odd here?
The human response
The human response
 The need for real change
– It will cost
– But many jobs could be created
– It will cost much more if we don’t start now
 But remember them?
Education
 That’s where we come in
– The science leads to understanding
– The need for optimism
 This ppt can be downloaded from
www.vicphysics.org – Teachers
- Feedback:
- [email protected]
- Resources (more at end):
realclimate.org
$1
 Climate science
Overview
– Earth’s energy balance
– Interactions between EMR and the atmosphere
– The effect of changes in the system
 Human induced changes
–
–
–
–
The release of millions of years of stored energy
Is the climate changing?
How can we understand it?
Climate models and their predictions.
 What can we do?
–
–
–
–
Fossil fuels
Reduce energy use
Lower CO2 options
Sustainable options
 The human response
– Sceptics, deniers, avoiders
– Change the light bulbs
– The need for real change
 Education
– That’s where we come in
 6.2.2 Role of scientists in the climate debate
 These stark conclusions about the threat posed by global
climate change and implications for fossil fuel use are not
yet appreciated by essential governing bodies, as
evidenced by ongoing plans to build coal-fired power plants
without CO2 capture and sequestration. In our view, there
is an acute need for science to inform society about the
costs of failure to address global warming, because of a
fundamental difference between the threat posed by
climate change and most prior global threats.
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In the nuclear standoff between the Soviet Union and United States, a crisis
could be precipitated only by action of one of the parties. In contrast, the
present threat to the planet and civilization, with the United States and China
now the principal players (though, as Fig. 10 shows, Europe also has a large
responsibility), requires only inaction in the face of clear scientific evidence of
the danger.
Thus scientists are faced with difficult choices between communication of
scientific information to the public and focus on basic research, as there are
inherent compromises in any specific balance. Former American Vice
President Al Gore, at a plenary session of the December 2006 meeting of the
American Geophysical Union, challenged earth scientists to become involved
in informing the public about global climate change. The overwhelmingly
positive audience reaction to his remarks provides hope that the large gap
between scientific understanding and public knowledge about climate change
may yet be closed.
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J. Hansen1,2, M. Sato2, R. Ruedy3, P. Kharecha2, A. Lacis1,4, R. Miller1,5, L. Nazarenko2, K.
Lo3, G. A. Schmidt1,4,
G. Russell1, I. Aleinov2, S. Bauer2, E. Baum6, B. Cairns5, V. Canuto1, M. Chandler2, Y. Cheng3,
A. Cohen6,
A. Del Genio1,4, G. Faluvegi2, E. Fleming7, A. Friend8, T. Hall1,5, C. Jackman7, J. Jonas2, M.
Kelley8, N. Y. Kiang1,
D. Koch2,9, G. Labow7, J. Lerner2, S. Menon10, T. Novakov10, V. Oinas3, Ja. Perlwitz5, Ju.
Perlwitz2, D. Rind1,4,
A. Romanou1,4, R. Schmunk3, D. Shindell1,4, P. Stone11, S. Sun1,11, D. Streets12, N.
Tausnev3, D. Thresher4, N. Unger2,
M. Yao3, and S. Zhang2
1NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies, New York, NY, USA
2Columbia University Earth Institute, New York, NY, USA
3Sigma Space Partners LLC, New York, NY, USA
4Department of Earth and Environmental Sciences, Columbia University, New York, NY, USA
5Department of Applied Physics and Applied Mathematics, Columbia University, New York, NY, USA
6Clean Air Task Force, Boston, MA, USA
7NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, MD, USA
8Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l’Environnement, Orme des Merisiers, Gif-sur-Yvette
Cedex, France
9Department of Geology, Yale University, New Haven, CT, USA
10Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, Berkeley, CA, USA
11Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, MA, USA
12Argonne National Laboratory, Argonne, IL, USA
Received: 23 October 2006 – Published in Atmos. Chem. Phys. Discuss.: 5 December 2006
Revised: 29 March 2007 – Accepted: 15 April 2007 – Published: 7 May 2007
 Resources for teachers - text:
 The Weather Makers – Tim Flannery
– Good, popular
 Climate Change: Turning up the heat
– Barry Pittock – highly qualified climate scientist
 Rough Guides: Climate Change
– Sound, quite good description of the science
 Heat – George Monbiot
– A sound journalistic approach to action
 Scientific American August 2007
– Good description of the scientific position
 Physics World Feb 2007
– Good description of the models
(Also an article about a ‘sceptic’ – Lindzen)
 Physics World July 2007
– ‘Bright ideas’ about physics and the energy problem
 Also see Scientific American Jan 2008
for more on Solar Energy
 Resources for teachers - web:
 RealClimate.org
– Good, run by very eminent climate scientists with
answers to questions and sceptics.
 United Nations Environment Programme:
– www.unep.org/geo/geo4/media/
– Download the Global Environment Outlook report
 Climate Code Red
– David Spratt and Philip Sutton
– Download (free) from
– www.climatecodered.net