Transcript Ireland and the Kyoto Protocol - SEAI

Ireland and the Kyoto Protocol
Micheal Young
Inspector (Environment)
Department of the Environment,
Heritage & Local Government
Presentation Overview

Science – Policy Development

Role of Kyoto Sinks – Marrakesh Accords

National Climate Policy
Climate Science.

IPCC established 1988
(1990) ‘climate change is a real threat’
 SAR (1995) ‘balance of evidence suggests a
discernible human influence on global climate’
 FAR

TAR (2001) concluded:
 ‘most
of the warming observed over the last 50
years is likely to have been due to the increase
in greenhouse gas concentration’
Climate Science.

TAR (2001) By 2100
average temp 1.4 - 5.8oC
 Global sea level rise 0.09 - 0.88 m
 Warming greater than 20th Century
 Stabilise CO2 levels at twice pre-industrial
levels require global emission reductions up to
70%
 Global
International Action
Earth Summit Rio (1992)
 UNFCCC – legal basis

 188
countries ratified
 ‘Stabilisation of greenhouse gas concentrations
in the atmosphere at a level that would prevent
dangerous anthropogenic interference with the
climate system’ (Art. 2)
 ‘Common but differentiated responsibilities’
 Returning GHGs to 1990 level 2000
International Action

Kyoto Protocol (1997)
-5% 1990 GHGs from Developed Countries
(Annex I) for Period 2008-12
 legally binding - basis for further reductions
 carbon sinks/ flexible mechanisms
 EU -8% reduction - ‘Burden’ sharing

EU Burden Sharing.
Spain
Greece
Portugal
Ireland
Sweden
Luxembourg
Germany
-300
-250
United Kingdom
-21,0 %
-200
-150
+25,0 %
+27,0 %
+13,0 %
+4,0 %
France
0%
Finland
0%
-28,0 %
Austria
-13,0 %
Belgium
-7,5 %
Netherlands
-6,0 %
Denmark
-21,0 %
Italy
+15,0 %
-6,5 %
-12,5 %
-100
-50
GHG emissions (Million tonnes CO2-eq.)
0
50
100
Kyoto Ratification

Entry into force requires:
Ratification by 55 parties
 Representing 55 % of emissions of Annex I parties.

119 Parties accounting for 44.2 % Emissions
Non ratified Annex I parites.

Russia
 Aus.
 US

 Other
17.4%
2.1%
36.1%
options?
Kyoto Sinks

Article 3.3 Sinks


limited to afforestation, reforestation and
deforestation since 1990 resulting from direct
human-induced acitivity
Article 3.4 Sinks
Additional Activities - Agricultural soils and LUCF
 How and which activities to account for set out in
Marrakesh Accords (2001)

Marrakesh Accords (2001)

Additional Activities for First CP (3.4 Sinks)
May include: Revegetation, forest management,
cropland management, grazing land management
 Must Elect in National Report by 2007
 Activities must have occurred since 1990
 Accounting on a Net – Net basis
 Forest Management capped at 50 kt C for IRL
 Draft Good Practice Guidance LULUCF for COP9
in Milan in December 2003.

Sectoral Breakdown 1990
Waste
3.3%
Sectoral Breakdown 1990 - all GHGs
Energy
21.6%
Agric
34.6%
Ind
8.0%
Process
5.5%
Transp
9.5%
Resid
13.1%
Comm/Instis
4.5%
Sectoral Breakdown 2001
Waste
2%
Energy
25%
Agric
28%
Ind
8%
Resid
10%
Com m /Instis
5%
Process
5%
Transp
17%
Distance to Target Indicator
Spain
26.2
Ireland
17.5
Portugal
16.6
Belgium
10.0
Austria
9.2
Denmark (1)
8.8
Greece
Italy
7.2

Netherlands
France
5.6
-1.7
-3.9
Sweden
-4.1
Finland
United Kingdom
-6.7
Germany
Luxembourg
-8.6
-31.1
0.5
EU-15
-40.0

8.7
-30.0
-20.0
-10.0
0.0
10.0
20.0
30.0
National Context.

National Strategy - NCCS.
 Guiding
principles
 promote
sustainable development
 least cost / ‘no regret’ measures
 sectoral equity
 protection of economic development
 generating impetus for early action
NCCS Key Measures

Cross-sectoral instruments
 phased
incremental framework for tax measures D/Fin
consultation.
 participate EU/International emissions trading EU
Directive finalised.

Energy
 fuel
switching less carbon intensive fuels
 expansion of renewables/CHP

AER VI 35 MW Biomass
 demand
side management
NCCS Key Measures

Transport
 fuel
efficiency measures - Biofuels
 modal shift - public transport (LUAS etc.)
 fuel ‘tourism’

Industrial
 market
instruments/trading
 negotiated agreements - reduce tax burden
NCCS Key Measures

Agriculture
 10%
methane reduction from national herd
 10% reduction of nitrogen fertilisers
 uptake of forestry in REPS

Waste
 diversion

of organics/methane capture
Forestry
 additional
planting
 potential forest management
Sinks in Forestry and Ag.

NCCS to address 13 Mt CO2

2.41 Mt from Agriculture sector
 1.2
Mt herd reductions
 0.25 Mt on-farm sequestration

Forestry Sinks 1Mt (Article 3.3)
 Latest
estimates 1.6 Mt (Article 3.3)
 Unlikely to avail of Forest Management under
Article 3.4
NCCS Implementation

Climate Change Team
 Inter

Departmental Committee
Bienniel Review
 to
report by year end.
Impact of Strategy
Impact of Strategy
73,794
75,000
63,239
Kyoto Limit 60,740
58,379
60,000
Mt CO2 Equivalent
53,752
45,000
30,000
15,000
0
1990
1998
2010 without measures
2010 with Strategy
measures
Ireland and the Kyoto Protocol
Micheal Young
Inspector (Environment)
Department of the Environment,
Heritage & Local Government