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Climate Change and Public Health Concerns in North America Kristie L. Ebi, Ph.D., MPH North America 2030: An Environmental Outlook 25 June 2008 Pathways by Which Climate Change May Affect Human Health IPCC 2007 Health Impacts Depend on Multiple Factors Geographic factors: Baseline climate Abundance of natural resources (i.e. soil, fresh water supplies) Elevation Biological sensitivity: Developmental stage Pre-existing medical conditions and/or acquired factors (i.e. immunity) Genetic factors Socioeconomic factors: May increase likelihood of exposure to harmful agents/high risk residences Associated with underlying diseases that mediate risk Affect ability to adapt or respond Direction and Magnitude of Climate Change Health Impacts IPCC 2007 McGheehin Extreme Weather Projected Ozone-Related Deaths, NY Metro Area, 2050s vs 1990s Kinney et al. 2006 Distribution of Lyme Disease, 19912000 and 2020 Tick abundance at model equilibrium Ogden et al. Int. J. Parasitol. 2005, Temperature and Enteric Disease T emp Alberta Salmonella T emp Alberta Campylobacter T emp Alberta E. coli 0.4 1.0 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.2 0.4 0.0 0.0 0.2 - 0.5 20 mean la g1 T emp Nfld-Lab Salmonella - 30 - 20 - 10 0 10 20 mean la g1 T emp Nfld-Lab Campylobacter - 1.5 10 lo ( me anlag1 , sp an = 0 .3) 0 - 0.8 - 10 lo ( me anlag1 , sp an = 0 .3) - 0.2 - 20 - 0.4 0.0 lo ( me anlag1 , sp an = 0 .3) - 30 - 30 - 20 - 10 0 10 20 mean la g1 2 3 RR of Salmonella increased by 1.2% per degree above - 10˚C 2 1 RR of Campylobacter increased by 2.2% (4.5% in Newfoundland) per degree above - 10˚C 1 0 0 -1 -1 RR of E. coli increased by 6.0% per degree above - 10˚C -2 lo ( me anlag1 -2 lo ( me anlag1 Fleury et al. 2006 EDF/George Mason/NACCHO Survey of Public Health Directors Department Has Expertise to Assess Health Risks? Priority Issues to Address Increase resilience of public health systems Uniform data indicators and data systems Decision support tools for climate change and health Explicitly incorporate climate change into transboundary cooperation for: • Air toxics • Vectorborne diseases Health impact assessments of mitigation and adaptation programs and activities across all sectors Thank-you [email protected]