Transcript Climate Change and Food Security: Implications for

CLIMATE CHANGE AND
FOOD SECURITY:
IMPLICATIONS FOR
SUSTAINING COMMUNITY
HEALTH
MODERATED BY ILONA VARALLYAY, JENNIFER YOURKAVITCH,
AND ERIC SARRIOT
Wednesday, September 15th
CORE Fall Meeting 2010
Part I: An Introduction to CEDARS
“The Center for Design and Research in
Sustainability (CEDARS) pursues excellence
in planning and measuring sustainability in
health and social development initiatives.
We are committed to learning from praxis
through evaluation to inform ongoing debates
about global health and the expanding
challenges of community health for
vulnerable groups in a globalized and
changing world.”
CEDARS | ICF Macro
www.cedarscenter.com
What is CEDARS?
CEDARS:

CEDARS hosts the Sustained Health Outcomes Group (SHOUT), which is
a community of practice for health practitioners and researchers
interested in advancing practical learning about sustainability in
community-oriented health and development programs.
A
community
of practice

REPOSITORY OF SUSTAINABILITY RESOURCES
CedarsCenter.com houses resources and short descriptions of projects by
ICF but also by other partners whose work is relevant to our learning
objectives.
A think tank

A partner
forum
HOST OF SUSTAINABILITY DISCUSSION FORUM
A TEAM OF PROFESSIONALS WHO CAN PROVIDE TA
The CEDARS team can offer advice and technical assistance to internal
and external clients. We would be happy to refer you to other colleagues
sharing similar interests and relevant experience.
CEDARS | ICF Macro
www.cedarscenter.com
How is CEDARS involved in “sustainable health
and human development”?



Many colleagues involved in “sustainability” work take on a global / climate
change / energy / environment perspective
CEDARS’s perspective is a bit different (and complementary) and is grounded in
human and social development

Takes into account complexity and cross-cutting nature of “sustainability”

To date, core competencies of CEDARS have focused on community health and
health systems strengthening but are seeking to pursue broader/global issues
involving food security and social-ecological issues
Application of the Sustainability Framework: conceptual and practical framework
for integration of sustainability into program implementation
CEDARS | ICF Macro
www.cedarscenter.com
CEDARS’ Three Strategic Interests
Sustainability in
Community Health
Improving Sustainability Design, Implementation and
Evaluation in Community Health Projects & Programs
Global challenges to
sustainable health
&human development
Studying and Improving Social and Policy Determinants of
Sustainable Human Development, from Food Security, to
Community Resilience and Adaptive Capacity to Climate
Change
Complexity & Human
Development
Improving Evaluation and Study Designs on Complex
Adaptive Systems (Communities, Civil Society, Health,
Governance, and Donor Systems) and their Impact on
Sustainable Human Development
CEDARS Center | ICF Macro
CEDARS | ICF Macro
www.cedarscenter.com
PART 2: RESOURCES FOR
SUSTAINABILITY PLANNING
IN CHILD SURVIVAL
PROJECTS
Sustainability Manual

“Taking the Long View”
 Can
be found at www.cedarscenter.com/resources
 Key Features
 Introduces
a theoretical framework
 Describes practical implementation steps
 Tips from practitioners (FAQs)
 Toolbox
CEDARS | ICF Macro
www.cedarscenter.com
Projects

What can we learn from projects?
 How
project teams used the SF?
 What were the results?

Where can I find this?
 www.cedarscenter.com/projects
 Summaries,
links to tools and/or charts, contact
information

Upload your projects!
CEDARS Center | ICF Macro
CEDARS Center | ICF Macro
Fora

CEDARS Critical Issues Forum
 Two
or three hot topics per year
 Currently, you can join the conversation about Food
Security and Climate Change

CEDARS Café
 “Water-cooler”
style forum
 Post a question or comment to the group anytime

Both can be accessed at
http://www.cedarscenter.com/shout.cfm
CEDARS Center | ICF Macro
CEDARS Center | ICF Macro
Other Resources
www.cedarscenter.com/resources

Articles
 Latest:
“Pro-Sustainability Choices and Child Deaths
Averted”

Reports
 Post-project
sustainability assessment—CWI
Bangladesh


Elluminate training
Tools/aids used by practitioners
 CRWRC
Malawi Workshop Agenda
CEDARS Center | ICF Macro
CEDARS Center | ICF Macro
Part 3:
Starting a Discussion…
Do Community Health
Professionals Have
Anything to Say At this
Stage about Building
Adaptive Capacity Against
Climate Change and Food
Insecurity?
Available on: http://www.cedarscenter.com/resources.
Context-IPCC


th
4
Assessment Report
High probability for global events
Uncertainty about the localized effects of climate
change
CEDARS | ICF Macro
www.cedarscenter.com
Potential Impact of 3 Types of
Climate Change Scenarios
Climate Change Scenario
Potential Health/Food Security and Other Impacts
1. Progressive climate change
(e.g., shifts in mean temperatures and rainfall
amounts, changes in lengths of growing
seasons)
Probability profile:
Irregular (high variability) over short term;
incrementally significant over long term.
a. Loss of coastal habitats reduce some food production activities.
b. Increased rainfall variability leads to decrease in water resources in some locations and decreases
irrigation potential with reduced food production.
c. Increasing temperatures in many locations lead to more demand for water for irrigation, thus leading to
lower yields.
d. Mitigation efforts drive up input costs, reducing agricultural productivity.
e. Change in range of infectious disease vectors.
f. Increase in respiratory illness due to changes in air quality.
g. Increased conflict due to resource competition
h. Increasing temperatures lead to heat stress on animal and fish stocks, reducing fertility and increasing
mortality.
2. Extreme events
(e.g., floods, destructive wind storms,
droughts, climate induced fires)
Probability profile:
Already observable; increased frequency
expected. Likely for certain geographic
profiles (lower elevation coastal areas, etc.).
a.
b.
c.
d.
e.
f.
g.
Heat-related deaths (heat wave).
Deaths and injury (flood, fire, storms).
Spread of infectious disease post-event (flood).
Spread of pests reducing food production (flood following drought).
Loss of cultivable land (flood/drought).
Loss of water resources (drought).
Heat-related stresses reduce cattle reproduction and increase deaths.
3. Threshold events or tipping points
(e.g., negative synergies with multi-system
failures)
Probability profile:
Unpredictable—High Impact
a.
b.
c.
d.
e.
f.
Epidemics (cattle or human).
Crop failure (large scale).
Broad ecosystem collapse (leading to uninhabitable zones).
Economic crash due to systemic and multi-system spiraling effects.
Massive out-migration from affected zones.
Conflict (violence) due to migration and resource scarcity.
Elements of GCC Risk Analysis

Multiple pathways in Climate Change all converge
on threats to Food Security (i.e. Table 2 P.6)
[Lessons from mixed effects crisis of 2007-2008 (UNICEF MENA)


Shocks on top of preexisting chronic food insecurity

Vulnerability and poverty more critical than urban-rural divide

Risk of competition for the same pot of resources]
Communities that will be Most Vulnerable To GCC
are Largely Already the “Most Vulnerable” (IPCC;
Ayers)

Global Action Will be Taken, but Local Status Quo
is a Possible Scenario – Particularly in Vulnerable
Communities
CEDARS Center | ICF Macro
Communities Vulnerable to Climate
Change are already ‘Vulnerable’


Given that a community that is vulnerable in an existing climate is likely to be
vulnerable to future climate change, it is not necessary to wait for climate change data
to become available to start building adaptive capacity. Rather, the starting point for
vulnerability reduction is development, and so the priorities for any development
agency must first be meeting their existing aid commitments and focusing on
community priorities in the near-term. Mainstreaming will not be effective if existing
development trajectories are inconsistent with the objectives of adaptation, so first and
foremost a “more of the same” approach to development must form the underlying
basis for any adaptation program undertaken by development agencies. (Ayers, 2009)
“Climate-change models project that those likely to be adversely affected are the
regions already most vulnerable to food insecurity, notably Africa, which may lose
substantial agricultural land… Weak public-health systems and limited access to primary
health care contribute to high levels of vulnerability and low adaptive capacity for
hundreds of millions of people.” (IPCC)
CEDARS Center | ICF Macro
Adaptation / Building Resilience
(Smit & Pilifosova, 2001)

“Adaptation refers to adjustments in ecological, social, or
economic systems in response to actual or expected climatic
stimuli and their effects or impacts. It refers to changes in
processes, practices, and structures to moderate potential
damages or to benefit from opportunities associated with climate
change.”
CEDARS Center | ICF Macro
Thoughts on Adaptation





“Underdevelopment fundamentally constrains adaptive capacity” (Smit & Pilifosova)
“Some people regard the adaptive capacity of a system as a function not
only of the availability of resources but of access to those resources by
decision makers and vulnerable subsectors of a population”
“The presence of power differentials can contribute to reduced adaptive
capacity.”
“Our combined experience suggests that the best way to address climate
change impacts on the poor is by integrating adaptation measures into
sustainable development and poverty reduction strategies… Many adaptation
mechanisms will be strengthened by making progress in areas such as good
governance, human resources, institutional structures, public finance, and
natural resource management. Such progress builds the resilience of countries,
communities, and households to all types of shocks, including climate change
impacts…” (The World Bank. 2009)
Value of ‘No Regrets’ Strategies
CEDARS Center | ICF Macro
Adaptation Measures


“Hard* adaptation”:
acts of engineering i.e.
port upgrades,
improvement of health
infrastructure, etc.
Relies on hardware


* (The World Bank. 2009)
“Soft* adaptation”:
early warning systems,
community
preparedness,
watershed
management, etc.,
Relies on collective
action and effective
institutions
CEDARS Center | ICF Macro
Local Level Assessment of ‘Hard’
Adaptation Strategies
1-Progressive
Effects of
Climate
Change
•Given time and resources, these strategies could help various communities adapt to change. At issue
here is moving research rapidly from theoretical to practical application and finding ways to bring
stakeholders together to problem solve around local management (a soft strategy).
•Those working in the subsistence or informal sectors may benefit only secondarily if investments
target most “productive” sectors/approaches.
•Progressively increasing cost
2- Extreme
Events
•The fact that most of the kinds of events envisioned here have already occurred or occur with some
regularity around the world provides a blueprint for action, but hard strategies are likely to be
used after the fact.
•In a sense this scenario would lead to “reactive” hard strategies being employed: after a disaster
one rebuilds and reinforces to avoid similar problems again.
•However, this type of adaptation could also consist of better warning systems and ways to
move people out of harm’s way (as is the case for hurricane or tornado warning systems in the
United States).
•Extreme events can damage basic services infrastructure, in addition to drain resources
•If resources are available, large-scale responses can target not only rebuilding but also
reinforcing structures.
•Can “miss” the most vulnerable due to lack of political voice
3- Threshold
Events
•May be difficult to reverse but will depend on rushing, perhaps largely untested, strategies to the
field.
•Such “macro-level” interventions would require massive investments and be essentially enormous
“terraforming” engineering marvels (e.g., dropping iron in the sea).
•Will have to prioritize mass-interventions and blunt instruments
•Global economic consequences
Local Level Assessment of ‘Soft’
Adaptation Strategies
1- Progressive
Effects of
Climate
Change
•Arguably, even the ‘hard strategies’ will benefit from investment in soft strategies that build on
community decision-making structures.
•If they benefit traditionally underrepresented populations (poor, women, minorities), they will
reduce isolation and excess vulnerability of these groups
•To the extent they can draw on or expand traditional/local adaptation strategies, they will
provide for easier adaptation of solutions.
•Will raise the baseline status of communities.
•Building of adaptive capacity anchors local and national resources to essential services and
activities
2- Extreme Events
•As above, strong social networks and decision-making structures can help streamline decisionmaking post-event.
•Using preexisting networks as early warning channels is also a possibility, as is using such networks
to collect data rapidly after events on those most affected so aid can be rushed to them
(immediately) and rehabilitation can be targeted after the fact.
•Local services and structures more resilient
3- Threshold Events
•Such large-scale events are outside the experience base of communities. While collective action
may be unable to enable appropriate responses to them, soft adaptation does move communities to
a better baseline. It connects vulnerable groups to information. It increases their resource base and
increases resilience and capacity to respond to a disaster.
•Starting from a higher baseline may ensure survival, whereas baseline vulnerability leads to
higher mortality.
•Social capital also helps put the pieces back together.
Importance of Social Capital and
“Social Infrastructure”

“The potential embedded in social relationships that
enables residents to coordinate community action to
achieve shared goals, such as adaptation to climate
change.” (Ebi and Semenza. 2008)
 Bonding
capital – homogeneous groups
 Bridging capital – heterogeneous groups
 Linking capital – centers of power
CEDARS Center | ICF Macro
Building Social Capital
The Keys
1.
Information-based decision making



Multi-level decision making
2.


Community-based management
Co-management between private actors and government agents
Lateral learning and sharing
3.



Information sharing
Already existing adaptation strategies
Building bridging capital through joint learning
Attention to Equity
4.


5.
Community diagnosis
Local collection/use of primary data - Community based information
systems
Multi-dimensional assessments
The Non-Negotiables
Local Information to guide
Local Action
Clarity of outcomes
Learn about existing
adaptation
strategies
Focus data collection
on food security (&
community health)
Orientation to action
Ensuring the participation of all groups
Appropriately managing power imbalances
Conflict Resolution Mechanisms
CEDARS
Center | ICF Macro
CEDARS | ICF Macro
www.cedarscenter.com
Consistency and unity of
purpose – Time!
Three Conclusions
1- A lack of local, sustainable community development
associated with a poor social infrastructure represents the
most widely shared source of insecurity and inadaptability
among poor communities of developing countries.
CEDARS Center | ICF Macro
Three Conclusions
2- Even context-specific, ‘hard’ adaptation strategies will be
hindered in their effectiveness and impact in the absence of
effective development processes which emphasizes ‘soft’
adaptation.
(And multiple competing costs may take further away from
under-resourced efforts at sustainable community
development approaches.)
CEDARS Center | ICF Macro
Three Conclusions
3- In the face of uncertainty, progressiveness, complexity, and
randomness of GCC threats, sustainable adaptation
processes should emphasize the building of a responsive and
capable social infrastructure.
We suggest that proper respect for time as a factor of social
processes, unity and consistency of purpose demonstrated
through appropriate local information systems and metrics,
and equity in bringing stakeholders around decisionmaking
processes will be central to these efforts.
CEDARS Center | ICF Macro
Questions
Continue the
Discussion on
CEDARScenter.com
-> Register & Visit
the Discussion
Forums Area
-> Critique, Revise,
Provide Examples to
Inform Global
Agenda
1. What are your general thoughts and questions about the
need for investing in sustainable social capital formation as a
priority for addressing current vulnerability to GCC and
building adaptive capacity?
[Are current project approaches capable of this investment?]
2.What specific examples do you have of programs or projects (health,
education, food security, agriculture) that combined elements proposed
and led to demonstrable positive change?
3.In what ways do these examples support or not the case for
prioritizing such local social processes through our development
approach, in order to build adaptive capacity in the face of GCC?
CEDARS | ICF Macro
www.cedarscenter.com
Interests &Needs Survey
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our approach to supporting
sustainability initiatives and
fill out our quick Interest &
Needs Survey.
THANK YOU!
CEDARS Center | ICF Macro