Transcript Science Assessment: - Convention on Biological Diversity

Climate Change and Biodiversity
Robert T. Watson
MA Board Co-chair
Informal Joint Meeting of the CBD SBSTTA and UNFCCC
SBSTA, Montreal
November 30, 2005
Key design features of the MA
MA
Political legitimacy

Authorized by four conventions and UN
Scientific credibility
Utility

Follows IPCC procedures

Focus strongly shaped by audience
Strong sub-global features
FCCC
SBSTA
IPCC
Ramsar
STRP
CCD
CBD
SBSTTA
CST
CMS
SC
MA
Research, UN Data, National and International Assessments
MA Facts
Number of Working Groups (Condition, Scenarios, Responses, Sub-global): 4
Number of chapters: 81
Number of pages (all publications): ~3,000
Number of experts preparing the assessment: 1,360 (including 50 young
fellows)
Number of countries with experts involved: 95
Number of Review Editors: 80
Reviews solicited from: 185 countries through 600 national focal points
Reviews solicited from: 2,516 experts
Number of individual review comments received (and responded to): 20,745
Most individual comments on one chapter: 850 comments (66 pages) on
Biodiversity responses chapter.
Amount raised: $17 million
Annual cost as percent of US Global Climate Change Research Budget: 0.2%
Estimated total cost (including in-kind contributions of experts): $25 million
MA Conceptual Framework
Human Well-being and
Poverty Reduction
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
Basic material for a good life
Health
Good Social Relations
Human
Security
Well-being
Freedom of choice
and action
Indirect Drivers of Change
 Demographic
 Economic (globalization, trade,
market and policy framework)
 Sociopolitical (governance and
Indirect framework)
institutional
 Science
and Technology
Drivers
 Cultural and Religious
Direct Drivers of Change
Ecosystem
Life
on Earth:
Services
Biodiversity


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



Changes in land use
Species
introduction or removal
Direct
Technology adaptation and use
Drivers
External
inputs (e.g., irrigation)
Resource consumption
Climate change
Natural physical and biological
drivers (e.g., volcanoes)
What was unique?
Ecosystem services
Provisioning
Regulating
Cultural
Goods produced or
provided by
ecosystems
Benefits obtained
from regulation of
ecosystem processes
Non-material
benefits from
ecosystems
Photo credits (left to right, top to bottom): Purdue University, WomenAid.org, LSUP, NASA, unknown, CEH Wallingford, unknown, W. Reid, Staffan Widstrand
Converting an ecosystem means losing some
services and gaining others – e.g., A
mangrove ecosystem:
housing
shrimp
Provides nursery and adult habitat ,
Seafood, fuelwood, & timber; traps
sediment; detoxifies pollutants;
protects coastline from erosion & disaster
crops
Valuation of Ecosystem Services
The total economic
value associated with
managing ecosystems
more sustainably is
often higher than the
value associated with
conversion
Conversion may still
occur because private
economic benefits are
often greater for the
converted system
Core Questions
1. What is the rate and scale of ecosystem change?
2. What are the consequences of ecosystem change for
the services provided by ecosystems and for humanwell being?
3. How might ecosystems and their services change over
the next 50 years?
4. What options exist to conserve ecosystems and
enhance their contributions to human well-being?
MA Scenarios
World Development
Reactive
Regionalization
Global Orchestration
Order from Strength
TechnoGarden
Adapting Mosaic
Proactive
Environmental Management
Globalization
Main Findings
1. Humans have radically altered
ecosystems in last 50 years
2. Changes have brought gains but
at growing costs that threaten
achievement of development
goals
3. Degradation of ecosystems
could grow worse but can be
reversed.
The Balance Sheet – to date
Enhanced
Crops
Livestock
Aquaculture
Carbon sequestration
Degraded
Capture fisheries
Wild foods
Wood fuel
Genetic resources
Biochemicals
Fresh Water
Air quality regulation
Regional & local climate
regulation
Erosion regulation
Water purification
Pest regulation
Pollination
Natural Hazard
regulation
Spiritual & religious
Aesthetic values
Mixed
Timber
Fiber
Water regulation
Disease regulation
Recreation & ecotourism
Bottom Line: 60% of Ecosystem Services are Degraded
Provisioning services are being enhanced at the cost of regulating &
cultural services
Climate and Biodiversity
Key conclusions regarding the interactions between
climate and biodiversity
Key Conclusions
 There is wide recognition that human-induced climate change is a
serious environmental and development issue and in conjunction
with other stresses threatens ecological systems and their
biodiversity
 The Earth is warming, with most of the warming of the last 50
years attributable to human activities; precipitation patterns are
changing, and sea level is rising. The global mean surface temperature
has increased by about 0.6 degrees Celsius over the last 100 years, and is
projected to increase by a further 1.4–5.8 degrees Celsius by 2100. The spatial
and temporal patterns of precipitation have already changed and are projected
to change even more in the future, with an increasing incidence of floods and
droughts. Sea levels have already risen 10–25 cm during the last 100 years and
are projected to rise an additional 8–88 cm by 2100
 Observed changes in climate have already affected ecological,
social, and economic systems, and the achievement of sustainable
development is threatened by projected changes in climate.
Trends in Drivers of Ecosystem Change
Trends in Drivers
Source: Millennium Ecosystem Assessment
1990
Habitat Loss to 2050
under MA Scenarios
Mediterranean Forests
Temperate Grasslands &
Woodlands
Temperate Broadleaf Forest
Tropical Dry Forest
Tropical Grasslands
Tropical Coniferous Forest
Tropical Moist Forest
0
Source: Millennium Ecosystem Assessment
50
Percent of habitat (biome) remaining
100
Temperature Change (oC) from 1990
6
5.5
5
4.5
4
1.5 – 5.7 oC
3.5
3
2.5
2
1.5
1
0.5
0
-0.5
-1
Source: IPCC 2001
-1.5
1000
1100
1200
1300
1400
1500
1600
1700
1800
1900
2000
2100
Hot Spots of Biodiversity
Climate change challenges the concept of small isolated protected areas
Change in Species Diversity
Number per Thousand Species
10000
1000
100
100 to 1000fold increase
10
1
0.1
Fossil
Re ce nt
Extinctions
(per thousand years)
Source: Millennium Ecosystem Assessment
Future
Climate impacts on cereal production capacity,
ECHAM4 2080s, Rain-fed multiple cropping
16
BRAZIL
14
30
INDIA
25
12
20
10
8
15
6
10
4
5
2
0
-100
-80
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
20
60
80
>95
RUSSIA
18
16
0
-100
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
16
60
80
>95
CHINA
14
12
14
12
10
10
8
8
6
6
4
4
2
2
0
-100
-80
-80
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80
>95
0
-100
-80
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80
>95
Recent Findings (post MA)
• Compared to the IPCC TAR, there is greater clarity and reduced
uncertainty about the impacts of climate change
•
A number of increased concerns have arisen:
 Increased oceanic acidity likely to reduce the oceans capacity to absorb carbon
dioxide and effect the entire marine food chain
 An increase in ocean surface temperature of 1oC is likely to lead to extensive coral
bleaching
 Reversal of the land carbon sink – possible by the end of the Century
 A regional increase of 2.7oC above present (associated with a temperature rise of
about 1.5oC above today or 2oC above pre-industrial level) could trigger a melting of
the Greenland ice-cap – impacting all coastal ecosystems and human settlements
 Possible destabilization of the Antarctic ice sheets becomes more likely above 3oC –
the Larson B ice shelve is showing signs of instability
 The North Atlantic Thermohaline Circulation may slow down or even shut down:
one study suggested that there is a 2 in 3 chance of a collapse within 200 years,
while another study suggested a 30% chance of a shut down within 100 years
The Risks of Climate Change Damages Increase with
the Magnitude of Climate Change
Key Conclusions
 Based on the current understanding of the climate system,
and the response of different ecological and socioeconomic
systems, if significant global adverse changes to ecosystems
are to be avoided, the best guidance that can currently be
given suggests that efforts be made to limit the increase in
global mean surface temperature to less than 2 degrees
Celsius above pre-industrial levels and to limit the rate of
change to less than 0.2 degrees Celsius per decade.
 This will require that the atmospheric concentration of
carbon dioxide be limited to about 450 parts per million and
the emissions of other greenhouse gases stabilized or
reduced
 This optimistically assumes that the climate sensitivity factor
is in the middle or lower end of the range (1.5-4.5 degrees C)
Recent Findings (post MA)
• Probability analysis suggests that to limit warming to 2oC above
pre-industrial levels with a relatively high certainty requires the
equivalent concentration of carbon dioxide to stay below
400ppm
• Stabilization of the equivalent concentration of carbon dioxide at
450ppm would imply a medium likelihood of staying below 2oC
above pre-industrial levels
• If the equivalent concentration of carbon dioxide were to rise to
550ppm it is unlikely that warming would stay below 2oC above
pre-industrial levels
• The World Energy Outlook (2004) predicts that carbon dioxide
emissions will increase by 63% over 2002 levels by 2030. This
means that in the absence of urgent and strenuous actions to
reduce GHG emissions in the next 20 years, the world will almost
certainly be committed to a warming of between 0.5oC and 2oC
relative to today by 2050, i.e., about 1.1oC and 2.6oC above preindustrial
Key Conclusions

If a long-term target were to be established, intermediate targets
and an equitable allocation of emissions would be needed

The technologies of today (energy production and use, carbon
capture and storage, and biological sequestration) can put us on
the right track until about 2050, but significant improvements will
be needed after this time, hence the need for an aggressive energy
R&D program

Realizing the technical potential to reduce greenhouse gas
emissions will involve the development and implementation of
supporting institutions and policies to overcome barriers to the
diffusion of these technologies into the marketplace, increased
public and private sector funding for research and development,
and effective technology transfer

Such a target will send a strong signal to the private sector,
governments and the research community that there will be a
market for climate-friendly technologies
Warming resulting from different stabilised
concentrations of greenhouse gases: pre-industrialized
level - 280 ppm, current level - 370 ppm
Temperature change relative to 1990
(C)
Temperature change relative to 1990
(C )
9
8
7
6
9
8
Temperature
change in the year
2100
7
Temperature
change at
equilibrium
6
5
5
4
4
3
3
2
2
1
1
0
0
450
550
650
750
850
950
1000
Eventual CO2 stabilisation level (ppm)
450
550
650
750
850
950
1000
Eventual CO2 stabilisation level (ppm)
Key Conclusions: Adaptation
• Adverse consequences of climate change can be reduced by adaptation
measures, but cannot be completely eliminated
·Even with best-practice management it is inevitable that some species will be lost,
some ecosystems irreversibly modified, and some environmental goods and services
adversely affected
• Assess and act upon threats and opportunities that result from both
existing and future climate variability, including those deriving from
climate change
• Adaptation to climate change must be part of the development process
and not separated from it – must be integrated into national economic
planning
• Existing capacities, (national governments to local communities) which
are often weak, form the starting point for anticipatory adaptation actions
• The capacity to adapt is closely related to how society develops with
respect to technological capability, level of income and type of
governance
Findings and data:
MAweb.org & Island Press
Publications
Synthesis Reports
 Synthesis
 Board Statement
 Biodiversity Synthesis
 Wetlands Synthesis
 Health Synthesis
 Desertification Synthesis
 Business Synthesis
Technical Volumes and MA Conceptual
Framework (Island Press)
 Ecosystems and Human Well-being:
A Framework for Assessment
 State and Trends
 Scenarios
 Multi-Scale Assessments
 Responses
Synthesis Reports
MA Conceptual
Framework
Board Statement
Technical Assessment Volumes