Transcript Main Title

The GA Second Committee
New York- 27 October, 2009
The Economic Impacts of Climate Change
Perspective in the ESCWA Region
By
Anhar Hegazi
Director
Sustainable Development and Productivity Division
UN-ESCWA
Tel: 961-978502, Fax: 961-1-981510
E-mail: [email protected]
The Economic Impacts of CC Perspective in the ESCWA Region
Content
I.
The Climate Change “CC” and sustainable
development challenges.
II. The Socio-Economic Impacts of CC.
III. Regional Initiatives to Address CC Impacts
IV. The ESCWA Role and Initiative on CC Issues.
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The Economic Impacts of CC Perspective in the ESCWA Region
I. The Climate Change and SD Challenges
Responding to CC should be addressed within the context
of sustainable development “SD”.
A. SD Challenges
• Rapid population growth (2.32%
compared to 1.19% world average);
• Political instability in the region that
can be enhanced by CC Impacts;
• Acute water scarcity, deterioration
of quality, and 80% shared water
resources;
• Unsustainable production and
consumption patterns, especially for
water, energy, and land resources
associated with environmental
impacts.
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The Economic Impacts of CC Perspective in the ESCWA Region
I. SD Challenges (Contd.)
• Inappropriate Institutional, and Legislative Capacity to address
CC adaptation and mitigation issues;
• Low Competitiveness of production sectors, especially
regarding Small and Medium Enterprises “SMEs”;
• Fragmented Social Policies, and the subsequent repercussions
on poor and marginalized groups;
• Inadequate Financial Resources to cope with the disruption in
climate.
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The Economic Impacts of CC Perspective in the ESCWA Region
B. Potential CC Impacts on Natural Resources
Despite its low contribution to GHG’s emissions, the region will
highly suffer from climate change repercussions which might
undermine national and regional development plans including:
1. Temperature increase:
• An increase in drought spurs thus
affecting groundwater quantity and
quality (e.g. estimated 50% and
15% reduction in freshwater in Syria
and Lebanon);
• A decreased agricultural
productivity and an increase in the
area of semi-arid lands;
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The Economic Impacts of CC Perspective in the ESCWA Region
B. Potential CC Impacts on Natural Resources Contd.
• An increase in desertification
and land degradation, and
the associated effects on
biodiversity;
• 30-50% expected reduction
in run off of the Euphrates
and Tigris and fluctuation in
the Nile of +30 to -70%;
• CC might affect production
capacity of desalination
plants.
Depreciation changes over Africa from the MMDA1B simulations.
Annual mean fractional change in precipitation
between 1980 to 1999 and 2080 to 2099,
averaged over 21 models.
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The Economic Impacts of CC Perspective in the ESCWA Region
B. Potential CC Impacts on Natural Resources Contd.
2. Sea level rise: Leading to drowning of coastal areas and:
• Loss of agricultural lands: Qatar,
Egypt, UAE, Kuwait and Iraq are
estimated to lose 12-15% of their fertile
Delta lands;
• Potential increase in the occurrence of
natural disasters, “floods and
hurricanes” (Hugo Hurricane in Oman);
> 1,000,000 migrant
• Seawater intrusion to coastal
> 500,000 migrant
5,000-50,000 migrant
groundwater resources might pose a
threat to Egypt, Lebanon, Syria and Gulf
States.
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The Economic Impacts of CC Perspective in the ESCWA Region
II. The Socio Economic Impacts of Climate Change
A. Potential Social Impacts
•
Increased political conflicts due to competition over varying and
declining natural resources degradation, mainly water and land;
•
Population displacement and mass immigration from flooded or
drought affected regions in Egypt, Qatar, United Arab Emirates, Kuwait
and Iraq;
Increase in unemployment and decrease in wages due to agricultural
lands loss, and to halting of tourism and fishing activities…etc;
•
•
Effect on human security and livelihoods;
•
Increase in poverty and health problem
levels among potential natural disaster
victims and poor marginalized groups.
•
Spread of health problems
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The Economic Impacts of CC Perspective in the ESCWA Region
B. Potential Economic Impacts
• Negative inputs on the major economic sectors, especially:
– Tourism facilities in coastal areas;
– Agricultural productivity and food costs;
– Industry and power systems;
• Repercussions on the Nile Delta,
Shatt El Arab and the Gulf could
lead to huge economic losses in:
– The infrastructure (roads,
bridges, power and
telecommunication systems);
– Housing and building sectors.
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The Economic Impacts of CC Perspective in the ESCWA Region
B. Potential Economic Impacts (cont’d)
• Limitation of urban development in drought prone regions
due to mass movements and reduced productivity;
• Increased costs associated with actions required for
addressing water scarcity and quality deterioration;
• Difficulty in providing food and increase in food prices due
to aggravated desertification and land degradation;
• Heavy financial losses resulting from potential disasters,
floods and hurricanes.
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The Economic Impacts of CC Perspective in the ESCWA Region
III. Regional Initiatives to address CC
A- Political Will and Commitments
ESCWA Member countries have expressed their political will
and commitment to achieve SD and address CC through:
• The Arab initiative on SD (AISD), 2002;
• The Abu Dhabi declaration on
environment and energy, (ADDEE) 2003;
• The Arab Declaration on CC (ADCC),
2007;
• The draft Arab Framework Action Plan
on CC (AFAPPC).
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The Economic Impacts of CC Perspective in the ESCWA Region
III. Regional Initiatives to address CC
The ADDEE 2003, expressed the Arab political will and
commitment for:
• Developing national strategies to strengthen the energy
sector sustainability and reduce its GHG’s emissions;
•
Enhancing access to reliable and
affordable energy services, using a mix
of traditional and renewable energy
resources;
•
Promoting regional integration through
electric grid interconnections and gas
pipeline.
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The Economic Impacts of CC Perspective in the ESCWA Region
III. Regional Initiatives to address CC
 The Arab Declaration on CC (2007) expressed Arab
commitment to join the international community in its move
towards adaptation to and mitigation of CC in a way that:
– is equitable and consistent with the principle of common but
differentiated responsibilities;
– will not commit developing countries to specific figures for
reducing emissions within a specific timeframe;
 ADCC also expressed Arab commitment to develop policies
for:
– Integrating CC into national/regional SD strategies;
– Adopting national/regional action plans to assess the potential
impact of CC;
– Developing programs for adaptation and mitigation of CC.
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The Economic Impacts of CC Perspective in the ESCWA Region
III. Regional Initiatives to address CC
 The ADCC also called on the international
community and developed countries to provide the
necessary support to the developing countries, including
the Arab States, in:
– Assessing the potential climate change impacts;
– Promoting and acquiring clean technology
transfer to developing countries;
– Financing CC relevant projects especially CDM.
 The draft AFAPCC contains a series of
programs on CC adaptation and mitigation
covering the sectors of water, land, biodiversity,
agriculture, forestry, industry, energy, transport,
and building and construction.
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III. Regional Initiatives to Address CC
1- Policies and Programmes
Arab countries have adopted and implemented to a varying
degree, policies and programmes which are linked to CC
adaptation and mitigation:
• On energy: Improving energy
efficiency; Promoting renewable energy
use; Reducing GHG emissions from
transport;
• On water: Promoting IWRM;
Preserving water quality; Building
capacity on shared water resources;
• On land: Fighting desertification and
land degradation.
CNG Dispenser.
However, the achieved results are not sufficient and further efforts
are needed.
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IV. ESCWA’s Role and Initiatives on CC
A. The Mandate
•
The ESCWA 25th Ministerial Session (May 2008) has
issued the resolution number 281 (XXV), requesting the
Secretariat to cooperate with the LAS and UN organizations
active in the region to:
– Prepare an assessment of the vulnerability to climate change of
economic and social development in the region; and
– Increase awareness and promote policy dialogue on climate
change adaptation and mitigation measures.
•
Within the framework of the UN-LAS coordination, ESCWA
has effectively contributed to the formulation of the ADCC
and the AFAPCC.
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IV. ESCWA’s Role and Initiatives on CC
B.
2009 Activities
ESCWA activities implemented in 2009 on CC include:
– On renewable energy (RE):
• Report on Promoting Large Scale RE
Applications in the Arab Region, an
Approach for CC Mitigation (2009);
• Field project on “Capacity building
on RE technology applications for
poverty alleviation in rural areas in
the ESCWA region” (2009).
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IV. ESCWA’s Role and Initiatives on CC
B. 2009 Activities (Contd.)
– On sustainable transport:
• Report on Transport for Sustainable Development in the
Arab Region (September 2009);
• EGM on progress achieved and policy measures on
Transport for Sustainable Development in the Arab Region
and related CC issues (29 September-1 October 2009).
– On SCP:
• The 2nd roundtable on the ten-year framework on
sustainable production and consumption (27-29
September 2009).
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Vulnerability Assessment of the Impact of Climate Change on Water Resources
2009 Activities (cont’d)
• In support of the ESCWA resolution 281 (XXV) regional coordination
was formalized through the RCM’s, Thematic Working Group on
CC (November 2008). It was agreed that ESCWA, UNEP/ ROWA,
UNESCO and UNDP would collaborate on a "Vulnerability
Assessment on Water Resources of the Region".
• Regional collaboration was further reinforced at the “UN-LAS” Ninth
Sectoral Meeting (June 2009), which focused on CC and was
chaired by ESCWA on behalf of the SG. The meeting concluded
with agreement that UN and LAS specialized organizations
would collaborate on the preparation of a vulnerability
assessment on the impact of climate change on water and land
resources.
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Vulnerability Assessment of the Impact of Climate Change on Water Resources
Preparatory Process:
• ESCWA is organizing and hosting the launching of this collaborative
work at an EGM Towards Assessing the Vulnerability of Water
Resources to Climate Change in the Arab Region (Beirut, 26-28
October 2009);
• The EGM will involve government
delegates as well as representatives from
the LAS, WMO, World Bank,
UNEP/ROWA, FAO, UNDP, ACSAD,
ISESCO among other regional
organizations.
• The meeting will discuss models, methodologies, parameters and
priorities so as to define the scope and inform the process of
formulating a joint work plan.
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IV. ESCWA’s Role and Initiatives on CC
C. Planned 2010-2011 Activities
•
Report on “Energy policies and measures for promoting climate change
mitigation in ESCWA countries” (2010)
•
EGM on “Approaches for Promoting Emission Reductions from the
Transport Sector in the ESCWA Region” (2011)
•
In addition since 2002 ESCWA has initiated a regional mechanism on
“Energy for sustainable development” to promote intra-regional
cooperation among its MC’s in the field.
ESCWA
Secretariat
Functional
Operations
NFP
ESCWA RPMSES
Coordination
Unit
NFP
NE
NE
Country requests and/or services
To the Coordination Unit
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IV. ESCWA’s Role and Initiatives on CC
C. Planned 2010-2011 Activities (cont’d)
• Study on “Policies and Measures Promoting Sustainable
Energy Use in the Transport Sector in the ESCWA Region”
(2011)
• Report on the vulnerability of water sector to climate change
and adaptation measures to increase resilience of ESCWA
Countries
• EGM on Climate Change Impacts on Water Resources and
Adaptation Measures in the ESCWA Region
• EGM on Promoting SMEs participation in providing services
for energy efficiency/renewable energy projects
• Non-recurrent publication on “Adaptation Measures for
Climate Change Impacts on Water Resources in the ESCWA
Region”
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The Message
•
Despite its low contribution to GHG’s emissions, the region will highly suffer
climate change repercussions which might undermine national and regional
development plans and increases challenges through:
– affecting natural resources particularly water and land resources;
– Adding severe socio economic impacts on the region;
•
Arab countries including ESCWA members have collectively:
– galvanized their political will and commitment to achieve SD and
address CC;
– formulated action plans to address CC adaptation and mitigation
supported by ESCWA, UNEP/ROWA and other UN regional agencies;
•
ESCWA has already implemented several activities on climate change in
2009, and included climate change issues in its 2010-2011 work
programme through close coordination with LAS and UN agencies in the
region;
•
Exchange of experiences among regional commissions on climate change
issues is essential to enhance its capacity in serving member countries.
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