Transcript Hoos going to win the NCAA Tournament?

Hoos going to win the NCAA
Tournament?
5 minute persuasive talk
By: Jim Boley
www.sfgate.com
What is the NCAA Tournament?
• Top 64 college
basketball teams
• Single-elimination
bracket style
tournament
• Teams entered into
bracket by seed based
on regular season
performance
• Current status: 4
teams remaining
• Florida (1), Wisconsin
(2), Uconn (7),
Kentucky (8)
www.espn.com
Metrics for evaluation
1. Quality of each team
–
Team statistics throughout the season
2. Seeding in the tournament
–
Compare against historical data of past champions
Statistics for Measuring Team Quality
•
•
•
•
Defense- opponent’s points per game (PPG)
Offense- number of points scored per game
Average margin of victory- points scored – opponent’s points scored
Rebounding margin- number of rebounds – opponent’s number of
rebounds
• Turnover margin- % of possession resulting in turnover – opponents % of
possession resulting in turnover
• Offensive rebounds per game
Evaluation of Statistical Metrics
* Numbers represent national ranking in each category
Defense
Offense
Scoring Margin
Reb Margin
TO Margin
Off Reb
Average
Florida
3
195
7
25
33
124
64.5
Kentucky
82
69
39
2
278
6
79.33333
Wisconsin
37
89
28
134
60
302
108.3333
Uconn
38
125
41
180
74
259
119.5
• Based on our statistical metrics, the tournament champion will be Florida
and the runner-up will be Kentucky
• Based on historical data,
Kentucky as a #8 seed has
the highest chance of
making it to the
championship (60%), but
Florida has the highest
chance of winning the
championship (37.5%)
Final Fours
Florida (1) 56
Kentucky (8) 5
Wisconsin (2) 30
Uconn (7)
1
Top 2 Finishes
32
3
15
0
% Top 2
57.14
60.00
50.00
0.00
Number of tournament championships
Evaluation of Historical Evidence
25
20
15
10
5
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
Seed in tournament
Over past 35 years, #1 seeds have
won 60% of the NCAA tournaments
Championships
21
1
5
0
% Champions
37.50
20.00
16.67
0.00
Conclusion
• Based on team quality and historical evidence,
Florida has the best chance of winning the
tournament and Kentucky has the best chance
of finishing second