Transcript Evolution Of Mobile Devices

Directions in Mobile Devices
TeleSoft's 2005 Annual Venture Capital EcoSystem Meeting
Makimoto Makes Sony’s Prediction
1980
1990
2000
3/28/2017
2010
2
Evolution Of Information Infrastructure
and the Evolution Of Processors
3/28/2017
3
Evolution of Connected Computing
Total Throughput
WAN-LAN
Intensely
Connected
Secure
Distributed
Computing
WAN-LAN
Connected
Computing
Escalating Connection
Intensity & Frequency
Locally
Connected
Computing
Discrete
Computing
1980
1990
2000
3/28/2017
4
Connected Digital Consumer
Home
Minivans and SUV
Master
Bedroom
Kids Bedroom
Kitchen
Study
TV Gateway
Family
Room
Copyright© 2004. MIPS Technologies, Inc. All rights reserved.
3/28/2017
5
Evolution of Processor
Are Transistors and Frequency Enough?
Transistors
1,000,000,000
Itanium 2
100,000,000
Pentium IV
10,000,000
Pentium
486
Moore’s Law Continuing
But What is the Benefit?
386
286
1,000,000
100,000
1980
1990
2000
3/28/2017
2010
6
Processors Start Weakening in Performance
Huge Memory Bottleneck Stalls Throughput
Performance
CPU Speed
100,000
Growing Gap
In Processor / Memory and I/O
1,000
CPU Spends Most Time
Waiting on Memory
100
Throughput Gap
10,000
CPU and other Chips are Power-hogs
10
Memory Speed
1
1980
1990
2000
2010
Hennessy and Patterson, “Computer Architecture, A Quantitative Approach”
3/28/2017
7
X86 Processor Business Breakdown
Market Growth in Mobile & Servers
$30,000
Overall: 13%
Server
$25,000
$4,338
$ Million
Growth
$20,000
$5,659
30%
Mobile
Desktop
$7,403
21%
$13,985
$14,640
5%
2004
2005e
57%
53%
$6,122
$15,000
$10,000
$5,000
$0
% Desktop
3/28/2017
Source: JMP Securities
8
Market Needs and Challenges for Notebook PCs
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
Notebook PCs remain the domain of Nomadic Usage Model
Low Price – enabling market penetration in Emerging Markets
Small Form Factor – smallest size for convenient typing
Light-weight
Long Battery-life
Nomadic e-commerce platform of choice
Nomadic Entertainment platform of choice
• Small Form Factor Notebook PCs are not Low Priced
• Low-Priced Notebook PCs are bulky, heavy and have low Battery-life
• Pocket PC is just a marketing description for Hand-held Devices
3/28/2017
9
Economic Expansion Opportunities
3/28/2017
10
China’s and India’s Growing Middle Class
This
advertisingfilled Shanghai
street
exemplifies the
growth from
China's
economic
reforms.
The Ansal Plaza
shopping mall in
New Delhi
features
a McDonalds and
Nike, Reebok,
Burberry's and
Gucci brand
products.
3/28/2017
11
Asia-Pacific is Intrinsic Part of Chip Supply-chain
$ 140 B
$ 120 B
$ 100 B
Americas
$ 80 B
Europe
Japan
$ 60 B
Asia-Pacific
$ 40 B
$ 20 B
$2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
3/28/2017
2006
2007
12
Need For Addressing Lower Priced PCs
Entry Models to Increase from 1/3 to over ½ of CPU TAM
Growth
$70,000
Overall: 7%
Mobile $1.5K +
$60,000
Desktop $800 +
$11,259
7%
Mobile < $1.5K
$50,000
$8,441
Desktop < $800
$18,138
-10%
$19,064
16%
$17,667
25%
$40,000
$30,000
$27,369
$20,000
$10,000
$10,467
$7,323
$0
% Entry Model
2004
33%
2008e
55%
3/28/2017
Source: IDC, 2005
13
Laptops from Walmart, Dell and Sony
• Walmart - Balance 15" Laptop, 1.5 GHz Intel Celeron M 340 Processor
–
–
–
–
–
–
–
–
–
$696.00
15.0" XGA TFT LCD screen
Intel Celeron M 340 (1.5 GHz)
Microsoft Windows XP Home Edition
256 MB RAM expandable to 1 GB
40 GB hard drive
Combo Drive (DVD-ROM + CD-RW)
Intergrated 802.11g WLAN
LAN:10/100 Base-T LAN on Board
• Walmart - Balance 14.1" Laptop, 1.1 GHz AMD Athlon 4 Processor
–
–
–
–
–
–
–
$498
14.1" XGA TFT LCD screen
40 GB hard drive
128 MB RAM
DVD-ROM drive
Integrated 802.11b wireless networking
Microsoft Windows XP Home Edition
• Dell Inspiron 1200 Laptop, Intel® Celeron® M Processor 350 1.30 GHz
–
–
–
–
$549
Microsoft® Windows® XP Home Edition
256MB Shared, 1 DIMM
30GB Ultra ATA Hard Drive
• Sony VAIO® TX670P/W Notebook VGN-TX670P/W
–
–
–
–
–
$2599
Microsoft® Windows® XP Professional
1GB Shared
60GB Ultra ATA Hard Drive
True Small Form Factor Notebook
3/28/2017
14
From $500 PCs to $300 PCs
Total
CPU
Chipset
Other Semi
Memory
Monitor
Software
Storage
Components
Board/Enclosure
$415
$68
$21
$30
$56
$50
$70
$31
$50
$40
100%
16%
5%
7%
13%
12%
17%
8%
12%
10%
Source: IDC, RMI
Total
CPU + Chipset + I/O
Chipset
Other Semi
Memory
Monitor
Software
Storage
Components
Board/Enclosure
$226
$50
$0
$5
$56
$40
$5
$20
$25
$25
100%
22%
0%
2%
25%
18%
2%
9%
11%
11%
• $300 Laptop PC or Desktop with Monitor is the Sweet Spot for China and India
• CPU has to be SoC with Chipset and I/O integrated
• Integrated CPU enables efficient “Platform Power Management”
• There is very little Room for Expensive Software
3/28/2017
15
Intel has been Mobile PC Driver
2008 TAM
Growth Rate
Intel Share
Desktop PC
$18B
1%
87%
Mobile PC
$14B
13%
91%
Server
$9B
15%
90%
Baseband Cell
$9B
4%
NMF
Video Game / Handheld
$7B
22%
NMF
DTV
$7.5B
38%
0%
Integrated / Application Cell
$3.5B
48%
10%
DVD / DVD-R
$3.7B
9%
0%
WLAN
$2.6B
21%
20%
Broadband (DSL + CM)
$2.1B
2%
NMF
Digital Camera
$4.2B
3%
0%
STB
$2.9B
7%
0%
PC
Focus
PC
Focus
Source: IDC, 2005; RMI
3/28/2017
16
China Leans towards OSS
Open Source Software Alliance formed in China
Alliance with IBM, HP, and others aims to promote open-source development
and application in China
By David Legard, IDG News Service
August 11, 2004
A number of Chinese software companies have joined forces with overseas
vendors such as IBM Corp., Hewlett-Packard Co., Intel Corp, and Novell Inc. to
form the China Open Source Software Promotion Alliance, China's first opensource software organization, several Chinese media reported Wednesday.
China Economic Net said the alliance, which includes China's leading Linux
vendor Red Flag Software Co. Ltd., marked a new stage in the promotion of
open-source software in China and across northeast Asia.
3/28/2017
17
India Leans towards OSS
Open Source Applications given to Millions in India
by Ingrid Marson
May 26 2005
OpenOffice and Firefox included on freely distributed CDs. The Indian
government is trying to encourage the use of computers across the country by
distributing free CDs that contain localised versions of popular open source
applications.
The government of India has started distributing CDs containing Tamil-language
versions of various open source applications, including the Firefox browser, the
OpenOffice.org productivity suite and the Columba email client.
3/28/2017
18
Evolution Of Mobile Devices
3/28/2017
19
Hand-held Device Vs. Converged Mobile Device
IDC Definitions for Pocket Sized Devices
•
Handheld Devices are pocket-sized, capable of synchronizing with desktop or laptop
computers. Handheld devices are designed to access and manage data including office
documents, multimedia, and games.
•
Handheld Devices do not include telephony but may include wireless capabilities that enable
Internet access and text communication. These devices feature evolved operating systems or
applications environments such as the Palm OS, Windows Mobile Pocket PC, Linux, or other
proprietary platforms with the ability to download, run applications, and store user data
beyond their required PIM capabilities.
•
Converged Mobile Devices combine the features of a mobile phone with the features of a
handheld device. Positioned to solve the "multiple device question" and designed to replace
the need to carry a mobile phone and a pen-based handheld or a mobile phone and a pager,
for example, these devices must match wireless telephony capability to the following
operating systems or application environments: Symbian, Linux, Microsoft Windows Mobile
Pocket PC Phone Edition or Smartphone, or the Palm OS. IDC also includes WAN telephonyenabled Research In Motion BlackBerry devices in this category. These devices must include
the ability to download data to local storage, run applications, and store user data in addition
to PIM capabilities. Converged mobile devices must also offer the full extent of their
application-processing capability to the user, regardless of network availability.
3/28/2017
20
Hand-held Device Vs. Converged Mobile Device
Hand-held Devices Shrinking
Rank
1
2
3
4
5
Vendor
PalmOne
HP
Dell
Acer
Medion
Other
Total
1Q 2005 Ships
619,253
496,755
216,229
124,034
79,500
361,098
1,896,869
1Q 2005 Mkt Share
32.6%
26.2%
11.4%
6.5%
4.2%
19.0%
100.0%
1Q 2004 Ships
810,183
577,615
157,399
20,354
14,000
578,997
2,158,548
1Q 2004 Mkt Share
37.5%
11.9%
9.8%
4.7%
5.7%
18.2%
100.0%
Converged Mobile Devices Growing
Rank
1
2
3
4
5
Vendor
Nokia
RIM
Fujitsu
PalmOne
Sony Ericsson
Other
Total
1Q 2005 Ships
5,400,000
769,818
710,000
386,705
207,129
899,094
8,372,746
1Q 2005 Mkt Share
64.5%
9.2%
8.5%
4.6%
2.5%
10.7%
100.0%
1Q 2004 Ships
1,771,508
425,600
350,000
167,921
203,652
650,964
3,569,645
1Q 2004 Mkt Share
49.6%
11.9%
9.8%
4.7%
5.7%
18.2%
100.0%
Source: IDC, May 11, 2005
3/28/2017
21
Converged Mobile Devices & Hi-End Handhelds
Alternate Entry into High Growth
Growth
Cell Phone Shipments (# - Million)
1,000
Overall: 8%
Converged Device
900
High End
800
Midrange
700
Entry-level
600
20
47
500
137
130
60%
269
54%
400
306
300
200
22%
445
100
185
-20%
0
2004
% High + Converged:
2008e
10%
45%
3/28/2017
Source: IDC, 2005
22
Converged Devices Favor Light Feature-Rich OS
Market has not picked a Clear Winner
Converged Device Shipments (# - M)
140
Other
120
100
Linux
5
Palm O/S
31
Microsoft
Symbian
80
7
19
60
40
20
0
% Linux
68
4
2
1
1
11
2004
2008e
9%
24%
3/28/2017
Source: IDC, 2005
23
Asia/Pacific (excluding Japan) Growth in Handheld and
Converged Mobile Devices
(Thousands)
Source: IDC
3/28/2017
24
Converged Mobile Device Usage Model
• Convergence of True Mobile and Nomadic Usage Models
• For True Mobile Increased Content Quality – Visualization and Sound
• Increased Connection Intensity
• Increased Functionality for Nomadic Use – Enterprise CRM use
• Limited use as an e-Commerce Platform so far – considerable fear
• Increased Need for Security
• Apple has addressed the Entertainment Mobile Device brilliantly
• Converged Mobile Device is not a DVD or true Media player yet
• Lower Prices are Needed to respond to Emerging Market Demand
3/28/2017
25