Sistema de Alerta contra Tsunami

download report

Transcript Sistema de Alerta contra Tsunami

Tsunami Workshop, Santiago de Chile, 29-30 sep. 2005
Tsunami Warning and Tsunami Hazard
Mitigation Efforts in Nicaragua
Wilfried Strauch, INETER, Managua
- Tsunami causes
- Tsunami hazard estimation
- Warning system
http://www.ineter.gob.ni/geofisica/tsunami/tsunami.html
Tsunami Workshop, Santiago de Chile, 29-30 sep. 2005
Tsunami en los 1990
Tsunami Workshop, Santiago de Chile, 29-30 sep. 2005
Nicaragua 1992
- Tsunami earthquakeMw=7.6
- Very low seismic effect
- No warning
> 170 killed
Tsunami Workshop, Santiago de Chile, 29-30 sep. 2005
1992
•
•
•
•
•
•
No knowledge about tsunami hazard
No seismic network
No communications system
No tsunami warning system
No trained personnel
No educated population
Tsunami Workshop, Santiago de Chile, 29-30 sep. 2005
Actions of INETER after 1992
• Sept. 1992: of seismic monitoring, service 24x7
• 1993: Integration into PTWS, ITSU
• Development seismic network
(1992:2 estaciones, 2005: 61 estaciones)
• Development of Monitoring and Early Warning center
• Development Information&Communications del Systems
• Execution of projects on tsunami hazard
• Development of sea gauge network
• Pushing a Regional Warning System in CA
• 2005 Seismic broad band network, Small seismic array,
• 2005 Facilities for immediate information to population
Tsunami Workshop, Santiago de Chile, 29-30 sep. 2005
Tsunami sources in Nicaragua
Tsunami Workshop, Santiago de Chile, 29-30 sep. 2005
Tsunami Catalogue
1500-2002 – 49 tsunamis in Central America
5 affected Nicaragua
1 desastrous en Nicaragua (1992)
Sources: Morales, 1992-2005; Molina, 1994, Fernández et al, 1999
Tsunami Workshop, Santiago de Chile, 29-30 sep. 2005
Funding
• After 1992 tsunami little interest of funding
agencies (“low probability for another tsunami”)
• Participation of INETER in research projects
• Additional funding by Nicaraguan goverment –
financial source for development of seismic
monitoring and Tsunami warning system
Tsunami Workshop, Santiago de Chile, 29-30 sep. 2005
Basic research on Tectonics, structure, etc
• After the 1992 tsunami – deeper earthquake and tsunami knowledge
for Nicaragua and CA due to a large number of research work and
projects on subduction processes, tectonics, geology, volcanology,
seismic source mechanisms, tsunami generation, ..
Especially:
• NSF funded “Subduction factory”
• DFG/Germany funded “Special research area”
• E.g. 2005 – temporary broad band network for crustal structure and
seismicity studies. Nicaragua & Costa Rica. 46 stations .
With Boston Univ. & Brown Univ.
Tsunami Workshop, Santiago de Chile, 29-30 sep. 2005
Tsunami due to submarine landslide
Shaded relief map of multibeam
bathymetry data showing the Jaco
scarp produced by seamount
subduction offshore Costa Rica. A
faulted block occurs downslope of
the main scarp, which seems to
indicate that detached blocks creep
along headwall faults without loosing
their coherent structure. However, a
slumped mass at the base of the
headwall scarp indicates that blocks
may eventually fail catastrophically.
Ranero & Weinrebe, 2004
Source: GEOMAR, 2004
Tsunami Workshop, Santiago de Chile, 29-30 sep. 2005
Lake Managua: Tsunamis caused by volcanic explosion
Foto: Section of Mateare in the low
area Oeste de la West of
Chiltepe peninsula.
Unit A A, fallout, product of
discontinuous plinian activity
2)Mateare sand (MS) deposited by
the tsunami,and
3) Unit B – massive fallout of
pommes of the stable plinian
phase of the eruption..
Source of volcanic explosion
which generated tsunami
Max. Height of waves :
20 m
When?
Aprox 2000 years ago
Sampling points
Sources:
Volcanic hazards in Nicaragua: Past, present, and future. A.Freundt, St.Kutterolf, H.-U.Schmincke, T.Hansteen, H.Wehrmann,W. Perez,, W.
Strauch, Navarro, in preparación
Tsunami in Lake Managua, Nicaragua, triggered by a compositionally zoned plinian eruption, A. Freundt, St. Kutterolf, H. Wehrmann, H-U.
Schmincke, W.Strauch,Conference, IAVCEI, Chile, 2004
Tsunami Workshop, Santiago de Chile, 29-30 sep. 2005
Lake Nicaragua: Tsunami by volcano collapse ?
Mombacho volcano:
Prehistorical collapse.
No evidences yet for
ocurrence of tsunami.
Granada
city
Apoyo
Caldera
Tsunami!?
Isletas
Other possible sites:
Momotombo volcano
Concepción volcano.
In process:
Study on possible
tsunami generation
and propagation in
Lake Nicaragua.
Landslide,
Collapse
Mombacho Volcano
1200 m
5 km
Source: INETER-NGI-Project
Tsunami Workshop, Santiago de Chile, 29-30 sep. 2005
Tsunami hazard estimation
Tsunami Workshop, Santiago de Chile, 29-30 sep. 2005
Identification of high risk areas, “hot spots”
Height -> “Hazard”
10 - 20 m low
5 - 10 m high
< 5 m very high
Population
density
Landscan 2004
Corinto
Source:Strauch, 200
Tsunami Workshop, Santiago de Chile, 29-30 sep. 2005
Corinto
“Hot spot”
Corinto
Save place
Evacuation route
10-15 km !???
Population:
Aprox. 10,000
Height: 4 msnm.
Tsunami Workshop, Santiago de Chile, 29-30 sep. 2005
Inundation maps based on numerical
simulation, Pacific coast
(to be finished December 2005)
•
•
•
•
Recollection of existing bathymetric data
Bathymetric mapping of Masachapa area
Digital elevation model of the coastal strip
Seismic source mechanism, 1992 tsunami
earthquake
• Numerical simulation of tsunami generation
and propagation (TIME)
• Inundation maps
Source: INETER-JICA-Project
Tsunami Workshop, Santiago de Chile, 29-30 sep. 2005
Study areas – most populated places
Masachapa
Corinto
Puerto Sandino
Bathymetry
San Juan del Sur
Source: INETER-JICA-Project, 2004-06
Tsunami Workshop, Santiago de Chile, 29-30 sep. 2005
Pilot Project:
Tsunami disaster prevention in Masachapa area
-Information and education
-Local hazard map;
-Save places, evacuation routes
-Tsunami signs
-Prevention measures for schools
-Installation of sirens
-Participation of local administration
and population
Source: INETER-COSUDE Project, 2005-06
Tsunami Workshop, Santiago de Chile, 29-30 sep. 2005
Alert System
Tsunami Workshop, Santiago de Chile, 29-30 sep. 2005
Alert system: Local tsunami
-Magnitud: > 7.0
-Location: Nicaraguan Pacific Ocean
Tsunami Workshop, Santiago de Chile, 29-30 sep. 2005
Local Tsunami – Alert System
Seismic recording
*
Analysis – Seismic data center
Earthquake->Tsunami
wave arrives in
45 minutes!
Evacuation
10 min ?
human factor
Automatic procedures:
-Broad band sensor
-Small seismic array
-Virtual regional network
3 min
Civil Defense – to local administrations, 10 min
Radio, TV stations – to population, 2 min
Cellular phone –to local population, 2 min
Tsunami Workshop, Santiago de Chile, 29-30 sep. 2005
Chinandega (El viejo)
1.- Venecia
2.- Aposentillo
3.- Jiquilillo
4.- Aserraderos
5.- Los Zorros
6.- Padre Ramos
7.- Mechapa
8.- Punta Nata
9.- Potosí
1
2
(130,000)
under risk
CODE
17
DEFENSA CIVIL
18
19
20 21
22
23
24
25
León
29.- Casares
30.- La Boquita
31.- Bocana de Masapa
10
13
14
15
16
13.- Isla Maderas Negras
14.- Isla Paredones
15.- Paso Caballos
Carazo
6
11
12
Chinandega (El Realejo)
22.- Salamina
23.- Montelimar
24.- Masachapa
25.- Pochomil
26.- San Diego
27.- Gran Pacífica
28.- Miraflores
5
9
10.- Corinto
11.- Isla del Cardón
12.- Isla del Amor
Managua
4
78
Chinandega (Corinto)
16.- El Tránsito
17.- Puerto Sandino
18.- Salinas Grandes
19.- Poneloya
20.- Las Peñitas
21.- Los Brasiles
3
INETER
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
Jinotepe
32.- Tipilapa
33.- Huehuete
34.- La Bocana
35
36
37
38
39
4041
42
Rivas
35.- El Ostional
36.- San Juan del Sur
37.- El Menco
38.- El Gigante
39.- San Martín
40.- Las Salinas
41.- El Astillero
42.- La Flor
Civil Defense Communications System
Source Defensa Civil, 2005
Tsunami Workshop, Santiago de Chile, 29-30 sep. 2005
New communication methods
(in development)
-Alert messenger to PC screen of radio/TV presenters
(under testing)
-SMS cell phone to decision maker
(under testing)
-SMS cell phone to large sectors of population
(under development)
Tsunami Workshop, Santiago de Chile, 29-30 sep. 2005
Thank you !
Tsunami Workshop, Santiago de Chile, 29-30 sep. 2005
Towards a Regional Tsunami Warning
System in Central America
Wilfried Strauch, INETER, Managua
with support from:
CEPREDENAC
INSIVUMEH – Guatemala;
SNET- El Salvador;
OVSICORI, UCR, CASC-Costa Rica;
UPA- Panama;
COPECO-Honduras.
Tsunami Workshop, Santiago de Chile, 29-30 sep. 2005
“Hot Spots” Tsunami CA
- Low profile of the coast;
-high population concentration
Bilwi
El Triunfo
Corinto
San
Carlos
El Bluff/Bluefields
Boca del Toro
Hight -> “Hazard”
10 - 20 m low
5 - 10 m high
< 5 m very high
Colón
Puntarenas
Puerto Armuelles
Panamá
Tsunami Workshop, Santiago de Chile, 29-30 sep. 2005
Regional program for a tsunami warning
system in Central America
•
•
Proposal of INETER (2003) to CEPREDENAC, based on experience in Nicaragua
Adopted in 2005
• Creation of national warning systems
• Every national WS obtains data from all other countries, in
real time
• Every national WS transmits its warning messages to all
other countries
• A variety of technical communications measures are tobe
used
• A very redundant system
Tsunami Workshop, Santiago de Chile, 29-30 sep. 2005
The 2004 Tsunami in South Asia
stimulated:
• Actions of CEPREDENAC (Regional Center for
Disaster Prevention)
• Tsunami hazard studies and education measures in
Costa Rica
• Interest of Emergency Commissions in all CA
countries
• Meetings of the relevant institutions of all CA
countries
• More interest of funding agencies
Tsunami Workshop, Santiago de Chile, 29-30 sep. 2005
Activities in CA towards a Tsunami
Warning System, 2005
- Meeting of body of Directors of CEPREDENAC,Kobe,
Decision about a strategic meeting
- Strategic meeting on Tsunami WS, in San Salvador,
- Decision on program Regional Tsunami WS
- Tsunami Workshop, 25-27Abril, Managua
Presentation of immediate actions and project profiles
- Workshop on digital seismic data acquisition and processing
Training for data seismic data exchange and virtual networks
Tsunami Workshop, Santiago de Chile, 29-30 sep. 2005
National Warning Centers
• Consider the threat of local tsunamis:
The local tsunami threat is more efficient using the national capacities
of seismic and hidrografic monitoring and using local
communications methods to the population.
• Independent alert for regional eventss :
For the detection of a potentional regional threat a single seismic
station can be sufficient (e.g. with TREMORS software).
• Interpretation of the messages of PTWC :
It is national responsability to interprete the inforemation or warning
messages of PTWC and to decide how to act on them.
• Dissemination of alert messages:
Only the national centers can cooperate efficiently with national and
local authorities to make sure that the warning messages are distribute
rapidly to the areas under risk and to establish evacuation plans.
Tsunami Workshop, Santiago de Chile, 29-30 sep. 2005
Immediate actions, planned for 2005
Alert system
- Formation of a technical steering committee
- Formation of National Warning Centers
- Integration in PTWS of all CA countries
(missing: Panama, Honduras)
- Elaboration of national communications plans, preliminary
Monitoring and communications network
- Exchange of seismic data in real time, virtual seismic
networks
Projects
- Elaboration of project proposals for long an medium
term development
Tsunami Workshop, Santiago de Chile, 29-30 sep. 2005
Possibles Projects
Monitoreo y Alerta
.Improvement/installation of a seismic broad band network, satelital
. Installation of a sea gauges, including off shore
. Information on alternative tsunami detection methods
Hazard mapping
. Hazard mapping, tsunami simulation, inundation maps
. “Hot spot” = population centers under high risk
. Factibility studies on special protection measures for “Hot Spots”
. Studies of tsunami causes – earthquakes, volc.explosiones,
submarine slides
Información y Educación
. Alternative measures for information and education of population
Tsunami Workshop, Santiago de Chile, 29-30 sep. 2005
Muchas Gracias!