Transcript 41791

FLOODING FROM THE RED
RIVER THREATENS THE
FARGO, NORTH DAKOTA
AREA AGAIN
RECORD- TO NEAR-RECORD FLOOD
LEVELS THREE YEARS IN A ROW
SUNDAY, APRIL 9, 2011
Walter Hays, Global Alliance for
Disaster Reduction, University of
North Carolina, USA
RISK ASSESSMENT
•HAZARD MAPS
•INVENTORY
•VULNERABILITY
•LOCATION
ACCEPTABLE RISK
RISK
UNACCEPTABLE RISK
FLOOD DISASTER RISK
REDUCTION
DATA BASES
AND INFORMATION
COMMUNITY
POLICY OPTIONS
HAZARDS:
GROUND SHAKING
GROUND FAILURE
SURFACE FAULTING
TECTONIC DEFORMATION
TSUNAMI RUN UP
AFTERSHOCKS
•PREVENTION/MITIGATION
•PREPAREDNESS
•EMERGENCY RESPONSE
•RECOVERY and
RECONSTRUCTION
FARGO, NORTH DAKOTA: 2011
National Guards
walk the levee
protecting Fargo
from the rising
Red River, which
reached 39 feet
on April 9th, short
of the 2009 record
RISK ASSESSMENT: FLOODING FROM
RED RIVER: APRIL-MAY 2011
• WHEN, WHERE, AND
WHY WILL THE
FLOODING OCCUR?
• HOW HIGH IS THE
RIVER’S FLOOD STAGE?
• WHAT IS AT RISK?
• VULNERABILITIES?
• EXPECTED DAMAGE?
• EXPECTED SOCIOECONOMIC IMPACTS?
CAUSES
OF RISK
LOSS OF FUNCTION OF
STRUCTURES IN FLOODPLAIN
INUNDATION
INTERACTION WITH
HAZARDOUS MATERIALS
FLOODS
CASE HISTORIES
STRUCTURAL/CONTENTS
DAMAGE FROM WATER
WATER BORNE DISEASES
(HEALTH PROBLEMS)
EROSION AND MUDFLOWS
CONTAMINATION OF GROUND
WATER
EMERGING TECHNOLOGIES FOR
FLOOD RISK REDUCTION
• REAL TIME WEATHER
FORCASTING AND
WARNING SYSTEMS
• MEASURMENT
TECHNOLOGIES (E.G.,
STREAM GAGUES)
• RISK MODELING (E.G.,
HAZUS, INSURANCE
UNDERWRITING)
• DATABASES
• MAPS: 100-YEAR AND
500-YEAR FLOODS
• FLOOD DISASTER
SCENARIOS
• DRONE PLANES
• HAZMAT
MANAGEMENT
NATURAL HAZARDS FOR WHICH
EVACUATION IS TYPICAL
FLOODS
GOAL: MOVE PEOPLE OUT
OF HARM’S WAY
HIGH BENEFIT/COST FOR
SAVING LIVES, BUT LOW
BEMEFIT/COST FOR
PROTECTING PROPERTY
HURRICANES
TYPHOONS
TSUNAMIS
VOLCANIC ERUPTIONS
WILDFIRES
LEARNING FROM THE
PAST
PREPARATION WAS
DIFFERENT IN 2011
• Both Fargo and neighboring
Moorhead, MN., with a combined
population of nearly 200,000,
now have permanent and
temporary dikes and levees
reaching to at least 41 feet.
PREPARATION WAS
DIFFERENT IN 2011
• The cities placed more than a
million sandbags in advance.
• National Guard members were
assigned to patrol all the flood
defenses, augmented by unmanned drones.
PREPARATION WAS
DIFFERENT IN 2011
• Fargo and Moorhead had
reduced their vulnerability to
floods by buying out homes in
flood-prone areas, and
purchasing miles of quickinstall diking systems.
A BRIEF LOOK AT THE
RECORD FLOODING OF
2009
LOOKING BACK
• The record flood of 2009 forced
thousands to evacuate, inundated
about 100 homes and caused an
estimated $100 million in damage as
the river crested at 40.84 feet.
• In 2010, the river crested at 36.99 feet,
the sixth-highest crest on record
RECORD FLOODING THEN
AND NOW WAS CAUSED BY
RAPID MELT OF A HEAVY
SNOW PACK
MARCH 28-30, 2009