Transcript WCSJ Doha June 2011

Can Europe cope with the rising burden of cancer?
Off the record briefing
June 2012
A risky business: reporting on
statistics, research results and
uncertainty
Part 1: Kill or cure stories
Informing
attitudes
and beliefs
about
cancer
http://kill-orcure.heroku.com/a-z/a
Informing
‘… could give you
cancer
attitudes
and beliefs
about
cancer
• Valuable and empowering
information?
• Harmless ‘infotaintment’?
• Abdication of responsibility to
your audience?
Informing
attitudes
and beliefs
about
cancer
The Telegraph reported:
“Researchers have found that
the fumes from paraffin wax–
the most common and
cheapest form of candlewax –
can be poisonous
and even cause cancer.”
“Behind the headlines” said: the candle risk reports stemmed
from brief press releases and a presentation abstract at the
American Chemical Society (ACS) and the data were
impossible to evaluate. “It is
possible that the study may never be published,
as a great deal of research presented at
Conferences does not make it into peer-reviewed journals.”
IN OTHER WORDS THERE IS NO PROPER EVIDENCE!
Informing
attitudes
and beliefs
about
cancer
Informing
attitudes
and beliefs
about
cancer
Informing
attitudes
and beliefs
about
cancer
Informing
Advice from behind
the headlines
attitudes
and beliefs
about
cancer
• Does the article support its claims with
scientific research?
• Is the article based on a conference
abstract?
• Was the research in humans?
• How many people did the research
study include?
• Did the study have a control group?
• Did the study actually assess what’s in
the headline?
• Who paid for and conducted the study?
Informing
attitudes
Public service
broadcasters don’t do
sensation?
and beliefs
about
cancer
• “Once a story gets spun into the
‘story of the day’ news organisations
are expected to give it a mention. If
you run it as you should do, including
all the relevant qualifications, that
tends to kill the story”
-- Fran Unsworth, head of news
gathering at the BBC, on the subject
of “killer banana stories”
•
Informing
attitudes
and beliefs
about
The Scotsman said: the “WHO's
International Agency for Research on
Cancer (IARC) said a "causal link"
had been established between
radiomagnetic fields and an
aggressive form of malignant brain
tumour called glioma”
cancer
Behind the headlines said,
“…the classification means that the link is far from certain,
with the IARC saying there is only ‘limited evidence’ of a
link to brain tumours in humans, and that the results
supporting a link may be due to other factors distorting
study data.
Overall, this classification should not be taken to mean that
there is a definite link between mobile phone use and
cancer, only that some initial (possibly anomalous) study
results have highlighted a relationship that needs further
robust scientific investigation.”
Informing
Update 1:Danish
cohort study
attitudes
and beliefs
about
cancer
• Danish study 358,403 subscription holders, 3.8
million person years, 10,729 tumours of the CNS. In
people with longest mobile phone (more than 13
years) use incidence rate ratio was 1.03 in men and
0.91 in women.
• The study concludes “In this update of a large
nationwide cohort study of mobile phone use, there
were no increased risks of tumours of the CNS,
providing little evidence of a causal association.
• As a small to moderate increase in risk for
subgroups of heavy users or after even longer
induction periods than 10-15 years cannot be ruled
out
Informing
attitudes
Update 2: UK Health
Protection Agency
review
and beliefs
about
cancer
•
•
•
After looking at hundreds of evidence sources, the review
concluded that there is still no convincing evidence that exposure
to RF [radiofrequencies] below international guidelines causes
any damage to health in adults or children.
The report suggests that to date there is no clear evidence that
RF exposure might cause cancer. This is different from finding
evidence that it does not cause cancer. The report calls for
research to continue monitoring the effects of mobile phones. In
particular, little is known about their longer-term effects and
potential effects on children. A study should be undertaken to
look at trends in the rates of brain tumours in the UK population
by age and sex in relation to trends in mobile phone use.
The Department of Health currently advises that children and
young people under 16 should be encouraged to use mobile
phones for essential purposes only and should keep calls short.
Using a hands-free kit and texting instead of calling are both
ways to reduce RF exposure.
Presenting risk
Informing
attitudes
and beliefs
about
cancer
• How do journalists translate
scientific reports into something
their viewers/listeners/readers
can understand, relate to, and
use to take informed decisions
about their own behaviour?
Absolute v relative
Informing
attitudes
and beliefs
about
cancer
Relative:
X doubles your risk
of brain cancer
Absolute:
X increases your risk
of brain cancer from
1 in 50,000 to 2 in
50,000
HYPOTHETICAL
EXAMPLE!
Population risk vs individual risk
Informing
attitudes
and beliefs
about
cancer
Informing
attitudes
and beliefs
about
cancer
Right message to the
right people
Breast cancer
Informing
attitudes
and beliefs
about
cancer
• Stats for the UK show women
have roughly 1 in 10 chance of
getting breast cancer ever
• But…
Under 30 years old the
risk is
1 in 1,900
Informing
attitudes
and beliefs
about
cancer
Under 50 years old the
risk is 1 in 50
By 85 years old it is
1 in 10
And yet…
Informing
attitudes
and beliefs
about
cancer
• Research done in Australia has
shown that:
• 44% of articles about breast
screening portray women under
40 years of age
• 50% of images show women
under 40 years of age
•
J Health Comm 9:309-325
Exercise and weight
Informing
attitudes
and beliefs
about
cancer
There is growing evidence to show that keeping
your weight down and doing moderate exercise
may protect against some cancers.
This is relevant to people who do very little
exercise and who are overweight (not just obese)
Informing
attitudes
and beliefs
about
cancer
• However, for people who are slim
and fit and eat healthily, the
message is not that they are safe
from cancer.
• Factors such as age and genetic
make up remain very important risk
factors
Informing
Communicating about
risk
attitudes
and beliefs
about
cancer
• Research shows that a the most effective
risk communication uses a combination of
absolute risk, relative risk, personal risk
factors and prevention advice
• Be clear about strength of evidence
• Be clear to your readers/viewers/listeners about
what this story really means for their cancer risk
• Spell out the evidence on how to protect
yourself against known risk factors
In summary
Informing
attitudes
and beliefs
about
cancer
• Journalists can help their
readers/viewers/listeners to
understand and manage their risk
• A constant diet of cancer scares that
are inaccurate or fail to accurately
convey the true implications of the
findings for readers/viewers/listeners
can leave them fearful and confused,
rather than informed and empowered
Points for discussion
Informing
attitudes
and beliefs
about
cancer
• Why is there such an appetite for
these stories?
• What are the pressures to run them?
• Who generates them and why?
• What message does this daily diet of
kill or cure stories send out?
• Does it matter?
• How should journalists deal with
these stories?