Transcript Document

Measuring IPv6 Deployment
Geoff Huston
George Michaelson
[email protected]
Available data sets
We have access to dual stack data for:
Available data sets
We have access to dual stack data for:
– BGP Route table
– DNS server traffic
– WEB Server access
and the data sets go back over the past
4 years
The BGP view of IPv6
1500
1000
400
2004
2006
2008
The BGP view of IPv4
280K
200K
120K
2004
2006
2008
BGP: IPv6 and IPv4
300K
150K
0
2004
2006
2008
BGP IPv6 : IPv4
0.6%
0.45%
0.3%
2004
2006
2008
What’s this saying?
IPV6 is 0.5% of IPv4 in terms of
routing table entries
What’s this saying?
But the routing domain of IPv4 is
heavily fragmented, while IPv6 is
not, so this figure is not a good
reflection of relative deployment
Let’s refine the question:
How much of the Internet today
is capable of running IPv6?
One way to answer this is to look at the
BGP table on a per AS basis
IPv6 AS Count
1000
600
300
2004
2006
2008
IPv4 AS Count
30K
24K
16K
2004
2006
2008
AS Count IPv6 : IPv4
3.8%
3.0%
2.2%
2004
2006
2008
What’s this saying?
The number of AS’s announcing IPv6
routes has risen from 2% to 4% in 4
years
That 4% is not uniform
15% of IPV4 Transit AS’s also
announce IPv6 routes
2% of IPV4 Stub AS’s also announce IPv6
routes
Capability vs Actual Use
If 15% of the number of transit
AS’s are announcing IPv6
address prefixes, does this mean
that 15% of the Internet’s “core”
is running IPv6 right now?
DNS Reverse Query Load
Examine the average query load for
reverse PTR queries for IPv6 and IPv4
zones for each of these server sets
Relative DNS Query Load
2%
1%
0
2004
2006
2008
What’s this saying?
• Reverse DNS queries for IPv6 addresses are around
0.2% of the IPv4 query load
• AsiaPac IPv6 query load is higher than for other
regions
• Query load has increased since 2007
• The interactions of forwarders and caches with
applications that perform reverse lookups imply a
very indirect relationship between actual use of IPv6
and DNS reverse query data
What’s this saying?
• Reverse DNS queries for IPv6 addresses are around
0.2% of the IPv4 query load
• AsiaPac IPv6 query load is higher than for other
regions
• Query load has increased since 2007
• The interactions of forwarders and caches with
applications that perform reverse lookups imply a
very indirect relationship between actual use of IPv6
and DNS reverse query data
Web Server Stats
• Take a couple of dual-homed web servers:
http://www.apnic.net
http://www.ripe.net
• Count the number of distinct IPv4 and IPv6 query
addresses per day
– Not the number of ‘hits’, just distinct source addresses that
access these sites, to reduce the relative impact of robots
and crawlers on the data and normalize the data against
different profiles of use
• Look at the V6 / V4 access ratio
Web Server Stats
• Take a couple of dual-homed web servers:
http://www.apnic.net
http://www.ripe.net
What proportion of end host
systems
will
prefer
end-to-end
– Not the number of ‘hits’, just distinct source addresses that
access these sites, to reduce the relative impact of robots
IPv6,
when
there
is a the
choice?
and
crawlers
on the data
and normalize
data against
• Count the number of distinct IPv4 and IPv6 query
addresses per day
different profiles of use
• Look at the V6 / V4 access ratio
APNIC Web Server Stats
1.0%
0.5%
0.0%
2004
2006
2008
RIPE NCC Web Server Stats
1.0%
0.5%
0.0%
2005
2006
2007
2008
Combined Stats
1.0%
0.5%
0.0%
2004
2006
2008
Combined Stats
1.0%
APNIC Meetings
RIPE Meetings
0.5%
0.0%
2004
2006
2008
What’s this saying?
Relative use of IPv6 has slowly increased
over four years to reach 0.4% today
Is interest in IPv6 slowing picking up again?
Or
Are we seeing Increased use of autotunnelling of IPv6 on end host stacks?
Use of V6 Transition Tools
100%
6to4
50%
0%
2004
Teredo
2006
2008
Use of V6 Transition Tools
100%
6to4
50%
0%
2004
Teredo
2006
2008
What’s this saying?
Around 25% of IPv6 clients appear to
use tunnels to reach IPv6 servers
And that hasn’t changed much over time
Where are we with IPv6?
15%, or around one in six, of the
transit ISPs of the IPv4 Internet are
playing with IPv6 in some fashion
Where are we with IPv6?
The “size” of the IPv6 deployment in terms
of end host IPv6 capability is around 4
parts per thousand Internet end
hosts at present
Where are we with IPv6?
Buts that’s probably overstating it!
– Widespread NAT use in IPv4 undercounts
IPv4 host counts
– These web sites are tech weenie web sites.
More general sites may have less IPv6
clients
Where are we with IPv6?
The “size” of the IPv6 deployment in terms
of end host IPv6 capability is around 2
parts per thousand Internet end
hosts at present
Where is IPv6?
Today
IPv4 Pool
Size
Size of the
Internet
?
IPv6 Transition
IPv6 Deployment
0.2%
Time