Transcript Chapter 6
Chapter 6 Determining Market Interest Rates Bond Market • Economists use supply and demand to analyze markets for non-differentiated goods like flour or corn. • In real world financial markets, there is a wide variety of bonds with different qualities and different prices/yields at any given time. • In theory, we will abstract from these differences to analyze the price/yield of a generic, representative bond. • Next chapter, we ask “Why do interest rates vary among bonds?” Savers & Borrowers • The bond market is made up of two types of traders. Savers have excess funds today and are trying to exchange them for bonds (savers). Borrowers are trying to exchange bonds for funds today (borrowers). • We can think of this market from two inverse perspectives. 1. Bond Market Perspective 2. Loan Market Perspective Bond Market Perspective • Borrowers are sellers of bonds represented by a supply curve relating the quantity of bonds they sell at a given bond price, P. • Savers are buyers of bonds represented by a demand curve relating the quantity of bonds they buy at a given bond price, P. • Quantity: Dollar value of bonds • Price: Dollar price of bonds. Loanable Funds Market Perspective • Savers are providers of funds to the bond market represented by a supply curve relating the quantity of funds they provide at a given bond interest yield, i. • Borrowers are takers of funds represented by a demand curve relating the quantity of funds they take at a given interest yield, i. • Quantity: Dollar value of funds • Price: Bond yields Views of Excess Funds Holders : Loanable Funds Perspective Views of Excess Funds Holders: Bond Market Perspective • Q: Why does the Supply Curve for Loanable Funds Slope Up? A: Holding expected inflation constant, a high interest rate on bonds increases the attractiveness of bonds and attracts more funds. • Q: Why does the Demand Curve for Bonds Slope Down. A high price for a given future face value reduces the attractiveness of bonds and attracts fewer funds. • Q: Why does the Demand Curve for Loanable Funds Slope Down? A: If bond issuers must offer a high interest payment to borrow, the attractiveness of borrowing or financing borrowing in the bond market will drop. • Q: Why does the Supply Curve for Bonds Slope Up. A: If bond issuers receive a high price for a given future face value, the attractiveness of borrowing or financing in the bond market rises. Views of Bond Issuers Excess Supply, Excess Demand, and Equilibrium • • 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. Q: What causes the the Supply Curve for Loanable Funds (Demand Curve for Bonds ) to shift? A: The elements of portfolio allocation. An increase in wealth shifts supply of loanable funds and demand for bonds to the right as investors increase the size of their portfolio. An increase in expected inflation reduces the real returns from bonds. This shifts the supply of loanable funds in bond markets and demand for bonds to the left . An increase in the expected returns on other assets besides bonds will shift the supply of loanable funds and demand for bonds to the left as portfolio holders shift to other assets. An increase in the risk of bonds (relative to other assets) or an increase in the cost of acquiring information (relative to other assets) will shifts the supply of loanable funds and demand for bonds to the left as portfolio holders shift to other assets. An increase in the liquidity of bonds (relative to other assets) will shift the supply of loanable funds and demand for bonds to the right as portfolio holders shift to other assets. Shift Chart Event Shifts LS Shifts BD Wealth E Alternative Asset Returns Relative Bond Risk Relative Bond Liquidity Relative Bond Information Costs 6 11000 5 10500 10000 4 9500 3 9000 2 1999 2000 DOW 2001 TBILL 2002 Impact of Shift in Supply of Loanable Funds (Demand for Bonds)? Event Wealth E Quantity of Bond Prices Loanable Funds/Bonds wait wait Bond Yields wait Alternative Asset Returns Relative Bond Risk Relative Bond Liquidity Relative Bond Information Costs • • • Q: What causes the supply of bonds or the demand for loanable funds to shift? New issuers of bonds will be firms financing capital investment or governments financing deficits. Firms will issue new bonds if expected real interest rates fall or after tax profits from capital rise. 1. 2. 3. • If expected inflation rises, expected real interest rates fall and bond supply/loanable funds demand shifts right . If productivity of capital equipment rises, profits from capital investment rises and bond supply/loanable funds demand shifts right . If business taxation rises, profits from capital investment falls and bond supply/loanable funds demand shifts left. Government will issue new bonds if government deficits increase. 1. If deficits increase, bond supply/loanable funds shifts right . Event Demand for Loanable Funds E Capital Productivity Business Taxes Deficits Supply of Bonds Impact of Shift in Demand of Loanable Funds (Supply of Bonds)? Event E Quantity of Bond Prices Loanable Funds/Bonds ambiguous Bond Yields Capital Productivity Business Taxes Deficits Hong Kong Dollar Bond Market • Hong Kong Dollar Linked to US dollar. • Supposing the representative Hong Kong Dollar bond was about as risky as the representative US dollar bond, the interest rate should be the same. • If there are any differentials, the supply curve for HK loanable funds (the demand curve for HK bonds) shifts until the two interest rates are equal. • The HK dollar bond market adjusts to the US dollar market because the US dollar market is so much larger. • If the equilibrium HK dollar interest rate is higher than the equilibrium US dollar rate, the supply of loanable funds in Hong Kong will rise as investors shift their portfolios toward HK$ bonds. (If the equilibrium HK dollar bond price is lower than the equilibrium US dollar bond, demand for HK$ bonds will increase). • If the equilibrium HK dollar interest rate is lower than the equilibrium US dollar rate, the supply of loanable funds in Hong Kong will fall as investors shift their portfolios toward US$ bonds. (If the equilibrium HK dollar bond price is higher than the equilibrium US dollar bond, demand for HK$ bonds will increase). HK$ Loanable Funds US$ Loanable Funds iUS iS iHK iD iD iS 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 1999 2000 EFB 2001 TBILL 2002