Transcript lecture 1 - Vanderbilt Business School

Chapter 8
Understanding Markets and
Industry Changes
Managerial Economics: A Problem Solving Approach (2nd Edition)
Luke M. Froeb, [email protected]
Brian T. McCann, [email protected]
Website, managerialecon.com
COPYRIGHT © 2008
Thomson South-Western, a part of The Thomson Corporation. Thomson, the Star logo, and South-Western are
trademarks used herein under license.
Chapter 8 – Summary of main points
• A market has a product, geographic, and time
dimension. Define the market before using supply–
demand analysis.
• Market demand describes buyer behavior; market
supply describes seller behavior in a competitive
market.
• If price changes, quantity demanded increases or
decreases (represented by a movement along the
demand curve).
• If a factor other than price (like income) changes, we
say that demand curve increases or decreases (a shift
of demand curve).
Chapter 8 – Summary (cont.)
• Supply curves describe the behavior of sellers and tell you how
much will be sold at a given price.
• Market equilibrium is the price at which quantity supplied
equals quantity demanded. If price is above the equilibrium
price, there are too many sellers, forcing price down, and vice
versa.
• Currency devaluation in a country increases demand for exports
(supply to another country) and decreases demand for imports
(demand for another country’s products).
• Prices are a primary way that market participants
communicate with one another.
• Making a market is costly, and competition between market
makers forces the bid–ask spread down to the costs of making a
market. If the costs of making a market are large, then the
equilibrium price may be better viewed as a spread rather than a
single price.
Anecdote: Y2K and generator sales
• From 1990-98, sales of portable generators grew 2%
yearly.
• In 1999, public anticipation of Y2K power outages
increased demand for generators.
• Walters, Rosenberg and Matthews invested to increase
capacity in anticipation of this demand growth – they
vertically integrated their company to increase capacity
and reduce variable costs.
• Demand grew as expected - Industry shipments
increased by 87%. Prices also increased by an average
of 21%.
• Discussion: What will happen next? Why?
Which industry or market?
• Every industry or market has a time, product, and
geographic dimension.
• For example: The yearly market for portable generators
in the U.S.
• Time: annual
• Product: portable generators
• Geography: US
• When analyzing a problem, or investment opportunity, it
helps to first define the time, product and geographic
dimensions of the market in question.
Shifts in the demand curve
• Movement along the demand curve indicates the
“quantity demanded” increased.
• Shifts in demand curve can occur for multiple reasons
• Uncontrollable factor – affects demand and is out of a
company’s control.
• Income, weather, interest rates, and prices of substitute and
complementary products owned by other companies.
• Controllable factor – affects demand but can be controlled
by a company
• Price, advertising, warranties, product quality, distribution
speed, service quality, and prices of substitute or
complementary products also owned by the company
Anecdote: Microsoft
• In the late 1970s, Microsoft developed DOS, an
operating system to control IBM computers.
• The price for DOS depended on the price and availability of
computers that could run it and the applications that ran
under it as well as the price of DOS itself.
• To increase demand for DOS Microsoft:
• Licensed its operating system to other computer manufacturers
• Developed its own versions of complimentary products
• Kept the price of DOS low
• Discussion: How did Microsoft control demand using
these factors? How did competitors (Apple, for example)
operate differently?
Demand increase
• At a given price, more quantity demanded
Supply curves
• Definition: Supply curves are functions that relate
the price of a product to the quantity supplied by
sellers.
• Discussion: Why do supply curves slope upwards?
Market equilibrium
• Definition: Market equilibrium is the price at
which quantity supplied equals quantity demanded.
• At the equilibrium price, there is no pressure for
the price to change given the equality of quantity
demanded and supplied.
Market equilibrium (cont.)
• Proposition: In a competitive
equilibrium there are no
unconsummated wealth-creating
transactions.
Price
$12
$11
$10
$9
$8
$7
$6
$5
$4
Demand
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
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9
Supply
9
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3
2
1
Using supply and demand
• Supply and demand curves can be used to describe changes
that occur at the industry level
Portable generator market 1997-1998
• 1997- Stable industry sales with intense competition (2% avg.
sales growth)
• 1997- Industry anticipates record demand will occur in 1999
• 1998 – Massive capital expenses throughout industry on vertical
integration projects
Portable generator market 1999 +
• Demand shift due to fear of power grid failure caused by Y2K
• Supply shift caused by manufacturer’s eagerness to capitalize
on record demand for product
• Manufacturers fail to anticipate reduced demand in 2000
• Sales from 2000 pulled forward into 1999
Generator demand shifts graph
Using supply and demand (cont.)
• Discussion: “over the past decade, the price of
computers has fallen, while quantity has risen.” How?
Why?
Problem: commercial paper
• In September 2008 there was a significant increase in prices
and decrease in quantity in the commercial paper market
Commercial paper problem (cont.)
• In the second week of September the price of the loans
(interest rate) shot up
Commercial paper: Question
• These changes spooked Treasury Secretary Paulson and
Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke, and they were
characterized as a “freeze” in the market for short-term
lending, the essential “grease” that facilitates the
movement of assets to higher-valued uses.
• What could have accounted for these changes?
Commercial paper: Answer
• After a few big bank failures, commercial lenders became
increasingly worried that borrowers would not be able to
repay the commercial paper loans.
• This resulting decrease in supply caused both an increase in
the price of borrowing (the interest rate) and a decline in
the amount of lending.
Prices convey information
• Prices are a primary way that market participants
communicate with one another
• Buyers signal their willingness to pay, and sellers
signal their willingness to sell with prices
• Price information especially important in financial
markets
Prices convey information (cont.)
• Discussion: Gas pipeline burst between Tucson
and Phoenix
• What happened to gas prices in Phoenix, in Tucson
and in Los Angeles?
Market makers (cont.)
• If there were but a single (monopoly) market maker, how
much would she offer the sellers (the bid)?
• How much would she charge the buyers (the ask)?
• How many transactions would occur?
Market makers
• Discussion: Compute the optimal “spread”
• Discussion: Competition forces spread down to the
costs of market making, $2. What is bid-ask spread?
Competition among market makers
• On May 26, WSJ & LA Times published results of Bill Christie’s
research
• On May 27, spreads collapsed
• Discussion: WHY?
Alternate intro anecdote
• Video enhancement products are state-of-the-art graphics
systems that capture, analyze, enhance, and edit all major
video formats without altering underlying footage.
• In 1998, this market consisted of a small number of
companies, and demand was relatively light due to the
extremely high price of the technology (prices ranged
between $45,000 and $80,000)
• In 2000, Intergraph entered the market at a price of $25,000,
attempting to quickly capture a major share of the market.
Intergraph produced a product at a substantially lower cost
than the competition.
Alternate into anecdote (cont.)
• What happened??
• Entry caused an increase in supply and a strong downward
pressure on price (average pricing fell to around $40,000).
• A number of firms exited and prices rose back to around
$45,000.
• Later, the events of 9/11/01 caused demand to
spike.
• What happened??
• In the short run, average prices shot up.
• Higher prices eventually attracted more entrants,
increasing supply. Pricing fell back down to an average
level of around $30,000.
Extra: using demand and supply
• Discussion: Is there a shortage of affordable
housing?
• Discussion: Is there a shortage of kidneys?
28
1. Introduction: What this book is about
Managerial Economics 2. The one lesson of business
3. Benefits, costs and decisions
Table of contents
4. Extent (how much) decisions
5. Investment decisions: Look ahead and reason back
6. Simple pricing
7. Economies of scale and scope
8. Understanding markets and industry changes
9. Relationships between industries: The forces moving us towards long-run equilibrium
10. Strategy, the quest to slow profit erosion
11. Using supply and demand: Trade, bubbles, market making
12. More realistic and complex pricing
13. Direct price discrimination
14. Indirect price discrimination
15. Strategic games
16. Bargaining
17. Making decisions with uncertainty
18. Auctions
19. The problem of adverse selection
20. The problem of moral hazard
21. Getting employees to work in the best interests of the firm
22. Getting divisions to work in the best interests of the firm
23. Managing vertical relationships
24. You be the consultant
EPILOG: Can those who teach, do?