Transcript Peak Oil – Why you should think about it

“Peak Oil” – It’s coming
Dave Kilsby
ASPO Australia
It can’t be ignored
Why does it matter?
quantity/year
rising prices
harder procurement
falling EPR
Demand
Supply
we are somewhere near here
time
Forecast Transport Energy
Consumption Growth for
Australia
Source: Energy White Paper 2004
ASPO Australia
aims to:
• encourage the acknowledgement and study of
Peak Oil particularly as it affects Australia
• be a source of independent information for
businesses, governments and communities
• collaborate with other bodies to help prepare and
implement relevant policies and strategies
• promote awareness of the issue of peak oil and
gas
ASPO Australia Working
Groups
• Oil & gas industry
• Biofuels
• Indigenous & Remote
Communities
• Agriculture, fisheries
& food
• Finance & economics
• Urban & transport
planning
• Social services
• Active transport
• Construction industry
• Health sector
• Defence
+ working groups for NSW, Victoria,
Queensland, ACT, WA, SA
How much oil and gas is
there? (ASPO 2005 estimate)
What about Australia? Haven’t
we got plenty of our own oil?
Not for much longer! (Geosciences Australia)
Recent oil price fluctuations
Weekly average closing price for Nymex crude
80
70
US$/barrel
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
0
20
40
60
80
100
Week
(Week 1 - early June 2004)
120
140
Unreliability of ABARE forecasts
3, 6, 9 and 12 month forecasts
70
WTI price, US$/bbl
60
50
3 month prediction
6 month prediction
40
9 month prediction
30
12 month prediction
actual price
20
10
0
Dec-99 Apr-01 Sep-02 Jan-04 May- Oct-06
05
Date
VAMPIRE
(Source: Dodson & Sipe, Griffith University,2006)
Alternatives to cars
(from Sydney Metro Strategy)
Domestic freight task
% moved by mode 1999-2000
80
70
60
50
Air
Sea
Rail
Road
40
30
20
10
0
Tonnes
Tonne-km
Alternative transport fuels?
•
•
•
•
Renewables
Biofuels
Conventional oil
Unconventional
oil
•
•
•
•
Natural gas
Coal
Nuclear
Hydrogen
Conclusions
• Transport over 40% of final energy
use in Australia
• Transport heavily dependent on
liquid fuels (oil)
• The age of cheap oil is almost over
• Short-term urgency in planning for
post-oil age
• More mitigation options in cities than
in rural areas
What to do?
•
•
•
•
Commonwealth to become involved
“Do nothing” not an option
No magic bullet
ASPO Australia advocates
– community engagement,
individualised marketing, fuel tax
escalator, tradeable fuel allocation
system
• Leadership required
• Buy time!
For further information
• www.sydneypeakoil.com
– Sydney Peak Oil Group
• www.aspo-australia.org.au
– ASPO Australia
• www.aph.gov.au/senate/committee/rrat-ctte
– over 180 submissions to an Inquiry into oil supply &
alternative fuels: …/oil_supply/submissions/sublist.html
• www.peakoil.net
– ASPO
• www.energybulletin.net
– (one of many good international sites for Peak Oil info)