Transcript Slide 1

Lecture Notes
ECON 437/837: ECONOMIC
COST-BENEFIT ANALYSIS
Lecture Eight
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ECONOMIC OPPORTUNITY
COST OF LABOR
2
• The Economic Opportunity Cost of Labor
(EOCL) is the value to the economy of activities
given up by workers including non-market costs
(benefits) associated with the change in
employment.
• Labor is not a homogeneous input.
• An externality (LEi) is created by any project, if
the EOCLi differs from the wage rate (Wpi) paid
by the project. Externality for a specific type of
labor (i) can be expressed as:
LEi = Wpi - EOCLi
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Estimates of the EOCL in Limpopo Province
(South Africa) (Rands per month)
Project Location
Level of Skill
Acquired
Sources of
Workers
Project
Wagea
Prevailing
Market
Wagea
EOCL
Ratio of
EOCL to
Project
Wage
Urban
Urban
Rural
Rural
Urban
Urban
Outside of Polokwane
Urban
Unskilledb
Unskilledc
Unskilledd
Unskillede
Skilledf
Skilledg
Skilledh
Skilledi
Local
Local
Local
Local
Elsewhere
Elsewhere
Urban
Foreign
651
1,490
468
1,490
15,020
16,729
18,438
36,667
651
651
468
468
15,020
15,020
18,438
36,667
651
897
468
668
14,652
14,652
16,860
26,592
1.00
0.60
1.00
0.45
0.98
0.88
0.91
0.73
Note:
a. Project wage or prevailing market wage refers to the gross wage including tax, social security payments, and fringe
benefits.
b. Unskilled worker employed in informal urban labour market.
c. Unskilled worker employed in unionized urban labour market.
d. Unskilled worker employed in informal rural labour market.
e. Unskilled worker employed in unionized rural labour market.
f. Senior Site Engineer technician employed in urban area.
g. Senior Site Engineer technician employed in urban area, earning higher than market wage.
h. Senior Site Engineer technician employed in rural area, earning market wage for region.
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i. Engineer with skills that had to be sourced from abroad.
Estimation of the Economic
Opportunity Cost of Labor
•
Two approaches for the estimation of
the EOCL:
i)
value of marginal product of labor
forgone;
ii) supply price of labor
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Value of Marginal Product of
Labor Forgone Approach
• Using this approach, the EOCL is determined by:
- starting with the gross-of-tax alternative wage
(Wa) earned in previous employment by the
labor hired for the project (marginal product
forgone); and
- and then adjusting for differences in other
costs & benefits.
6
Supply Price of Labor Approach
• Supply price is defined as the minimum gross-of-tax wage
rate the project needs to pay to attract the necessary
labor.
• Supply price accounts for a worker's preferences for
location, working conditions, etc.
• Using the supply price approach, the EOCL is determined
by:
- starting with the market wage (the supply price)
required to attract sufficient workers to the project; and
- then adjusting for distortions such as taxes and
subsidies.
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Example: Comparing the Value of Marginal
Product Forgone and Supply Price
Methods
• Unskilled farm workers move from (c) where they were
cutting sugar cane to a more pleasant place (o) harvesting
oranges.
• No distortions in the labor market
• Other factors influencing the relocation:
1. Difference in cost of living (C)
2. Preference (S) of the workers for a more pleasant region.
Wo = $ 15.00 per day
Wc = $ 20.00 per day
Co = $ 3.00 per day
Cc = $ 6.00 per day
So = $ 2.00 per day (value of the preference for the
warmer region)
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Example (cont’d)
Marginal Product Approach
• EOCL = prior wage - change in cost of living
- worker preferences
= Wc - (Cc - Co) – So
= 20 - (6 - 3) - 2
= $15.00 per day
Supply Price Approach
• Supply price in (o) accounts for the cost of living difference
(Cc - Co) and worker's preference for the better climate (So).
• EOCL = Wo
= $15.00 per day
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Structure of Analysis
•
•
Labor prices can vary greatly
Determinants in the cost of labor to the
project:
1. Type of Labor (skilled vs. unskilled)
2. Regional Variations and Domestic
Migration
3. International Migration
4. Type of Labor Market (Protected vs.
Unprotected)
5. Type of Job (Permanent vs. Temporary)
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The Economic Opportunity Cost of
Unskilled Rural Labor
• EOCL of unskilled rural labor is not zero.
• The prevailing daily or weekly wage rate, W, (the supply
price of unskilled labor) is a reflection of the marginal
productivity of this type of activity.
• W is an effective measure of the value of forgone
marginal product for unskilled labor.
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Supply Price Approach: Calculations
• Determine the minimum gross-of-tax wage (market
supply price) needed to attract sufficient unskilled labor
to the positions available on the project.
• Identify the distortions in the labor market such as
personal income taxes or unemployment insurance
benefits.
• The EOCL can be determined by adjusting the market
wage to compensate for the distortions caused by those
factors.
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The Economic Opportunity Cost of Unskilled Labor
Example 1: Rural Labor Case without Seasonal
Variation in Demand
• Assume:
1. no distortions in the unskilled labor market,
2. no taxes paid by the employer (demand side),
3. no income taxes paid by the worker (supply side),
4. no fluctuations in wages or labor demand over time.
• The supply price of labor (WS) is equal to the prevailing market
wage (W).
EOCL = W = Supply Price of Unskilled Labor
• Note: The EOCL is estimated using the market supply price
(WS) not the project wage (Wp).
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Example 2: Rural Labor Case with Seasonal
Variation in Demand
•
Assume:
1. no distortions in the unskilled labor market,
2. no taxes paid by the employer (demand side),
3. no income taxes paid by the worker (supply side),
4. market wage varies due to seasonality in demand.
Number of workers
needed for project
Wages
Qp
Pattern of wage rate
for unskilled labor
during the year
Wi
Feb
Patterns of project’s
demand for labor
during the year
April
June
Aug
Oct
Dec
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• Due to seasonal fluctuations in the wage rate,
the EOCL at any point in time is equal to the
market wage rate (Wt) at that point in time.
• The total EOCL used by a project over a year is
the sum of the product of the quantity of labor
hired in each season (Qt) times the
corresponding market wage rate (supply price,
Wt) for the period:
n
EOCL =  (Qt*Wt)
t=1
where: “n” is the total number of periods; and “t” is
the period of time.
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Note:
• The project wage (Wp) paid does not play a
role in the estimation of the EOCL.
• Basis of estimation of the EOCL is the supply
price of labor as reflected in the market wage
(W).
• The difference between the financial cost
paid by the project (Wp) and the EOCL is the
value of the labor externality.
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Example: Sugar Production Projects hires
Unskilled Labor in a Rural Area
• A labor-intensive sugar project
• Project requires unskilled workers on a temporary
basis.
• Project pays a wage of $180 per month (Wp).
• Project working conditions are identical to those
prevailing in the labor market.
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• Table shows the project's monthly labor requirement, the monthly
market wage rates (W) that labor would be willing to work for on this
project and the EOCL for each period.
Month
(1)
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
Total
Market Wage (W)
($/month)
Person-months
required (Qt)
(2)
120
100
180
180
100
150
180
120
150
110
150
180
(3)
18
18
18
9
9
0
0
0
0
0
9
9
90
EOCL
for period ($)
(4)
2,160
1,800
3,240
1,620
900
0
0
0
0
0
1,350
1,620
$12,690
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• The EOCL is calculated as follows:
n=12
EOCL =  (Qt*Wt)
t=1
= [120*18 + 100*18 +….. + 150*9 + 180*9]
= $ 12,690
• Labor externality = Financial Cost – EOCL
= 180*90 – 12,690
= $3,510
• Labor externality is a net gain to labor.
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The Economic Opportunity Cost of
Skilled Labor
• Skilled labor is not a homogeneous factor.
• Conversion factor for one type of occupation may not
necessarily be the same for other occupations.
• Often labor must be induced with higher wages and
improved benefits to migrate to other areas.
• Increase or decrease in the supply price of labor as it
moves from one location to another will depend upon
the magnitude of the consumer surplus lost or gained.
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Situation 1: Labor Market without
Distortions or Regional Migration
• Assume:
1. No distortions in the labor market
2. No migration
3. Project working conditions are identical to those
prevailing in the labor market.
• The economic opportunity cost of labor is equal to the
local market wage (W) which in this case is the
supply price (Ws):
EOCL = W = Ws
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Situation 2: Workers Migrate to Project from
Distorted Regional Labor Markets
• Assume:
1. A proportion of the project’s labor (Hd) is induced to
migrate from alternative labor markets where they
were employed.
2. Project pays a wage equal or higher than the
gross-of-tax supply price (Wgs) to attract the
necessary workers.
• EOCL = the supply price to the project, (Wgs)
- taxes paid by project workers, (WgsT)
+ taxes lost from the workers’ previous
employment, (HdWaT).
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23
1. Workers migrate from other regions to the project. Supply
curve in the sending region (SS) shifts leftward to (S’S’).
2. At original wage (Wa), migration to the project will cause a
decrease in the available supply from Q0 to Q1.
3. Wage increases to Wa’ to bring about an equilibrium.
Higher wage in the sending regions causes employers to
reduce the quantity they demand.
4. Higher wage also induces some skilled workers to enter
the formal labor force, thereby increasing the quantity of
skilled labor supplied from Q1 to Q2.
5. Net effect: a proportion of the labor (Hs) ultimately comes
from the newly induced supply and a proportion (Hd)
comes from the reduced demand for workers elsewhere.
6. Reduction in the quantity of labor demanded results in a
loss of taxes (ABCE).
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• When calculating the EOCL, only the tax distortion
resulting from the reduced demand (Hd) need be
accounted for, because we assumed that the
increased supply (Hs) of labor is coming from nonmarket activities where there are no taxes or other
distortions.
• Thus, the EOCL for the project in such cases is the
gross-of-tax supply price (Wgs) of workers induced to
move to the area minus the difference between the
income taxes the workers would pay on this gross-oftax supply price of labor (WgsT), which are gained by
the government, and the income taxes previously paid
by the workers in their alternative employment
(HdWaT), which are lost by the government.
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• The EOCL hired by the project in the area is:
EOCL = Wgs - (Wgs T – HdWa T)
where:
- Hd is the proportion of the project's demand for labor
obtained from taxed employment activities in the
alternative labor market,
- Wa is the gross-of-tax wage of labor from alternative
sources,
- Wgs is the gross-of-tax supply price of labor,
- T is the income tax rate levied on workers in all regions,
- Hs = (1 - Hd) includes both the supply of labor coming to
the region from untaxed market and non-market
activities, as well as increases in the labor force
participation and the number of hours worked.
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Labor Externality
• Labor externality can be expressed as:
LEi = Wp - Wgs + (WgsT - HdWaT)
= Wp (1 - T) - Wgs(1 - T) + WpT – HdWaT
• We can determine how these labor externalities are distributed
between the workers and the government:
Labor benefits = Wp(1 - T) - Wgs(1 - T)
Government benefits = WpT - HdWaT
• Thus, of the total of externalities created by the employment of
workers by a project, labor will gain an additional income earnings
while the government will capture additional taxes.
• The distributional analysis provides a means of evaluating the
financial gains and losses affecting groups in the economy other
than the owners of the project.
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Example: Skilled Labor Hired for a Project
• In addition to the unskilled workers hired for the sugar project, the
government requires each year 1,000 person-months of labor with
skilled occupations.
• The project will have to attract skilled labor from the urban areas.
• These workers earn a monthly gross-of-tax salary (Wa) of $900 in the
urban area, they will not work for less than $1,200 gross-of-tax for
the project (Wgs). These wage rates reflect the gross-of-tax supply
prices of the workers in the two markets, respectively.
• There is a policy of encouraging more workers in these occupations
to migrate to the rural areas, so the project is required to pay a salary
(Wp) of $1,500 per month for such labor, or $300 more than the
market supply price.
• All skilled workers pay 20% of their wages in income taxes.
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Example : Skilled Labor (cont’d)
• The EOCL for this project is calculated:
EOCL = Wgs - (WgsT - HdWaT)
= 1,200 – [(1,200 * 0.20) - (0.90 * 900 * 0.20)]
= $1,122/month
• The labor externality can be expressed as The
difference between the EOCL of these skilled workers
and the value of the project's wage:
LEi = Wp - EOCL
= 1,500 – 1,122
= $378/month
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Example : Skilled Labor (cont’d)
• These labor externalities can be distributed between the
workers and the government:
Labor benefits
= Wp(1 - T) - Wgs(1 - T)
= 1,500(1 - 0.20) - 1,200(1 - 0.20)
= 1,200 - 960 = $240/month
Government benefits = WpT - Hd WaT
= 1,500(0.20) - (0.90 * 900 * 0.20)
= 300 - 162 = $138/month
• Of the total of externalities created per month by the
employment of workers by a project, labor will gain an
additional $240 per month while the government will
capture $138 per month in additional taxes.
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EOCL if International Migration Flows
-- Case 1: Retained or Returned Migrants -Project is created inside the country and additional labor is
hired, a part of this labor is sourced from a reduction in the
outflow of international migration.
• The availability of additional jobs in the country may induce some
workers to return from abroad to seek local employment.
• The EOCL must take into consideration not only the adjustment of
the demand and supply of labor in the local markets, but also any
distortions associated with the retention or return of domestic
workers who would have been employed abroad.
• Some citizens work abroad and send back a stream of payments in
the form of personal savings or remittances to relatives. The
reduction in remittances themselves is not an economic cost,
because they are factored into the worker’s supply price to the
project.
31
• An adjustment needs to be made to the supply price of labor, since
the foreign remittances are made in foreign exchange and a foreign
exchange premium exists in most countries.
• The expression for the EOCL becomes:
EOCL= Wgs(1 - T) + HdWaT + HfR(Ee/Em – 1)
where
Hd = proportion of the project’s demand for a given type of labor
obtained from taxed employment activities in the domestic
market.
Hf = proportion of the project’s demand for a given type of labor
obtained from reduced international out-migration.
R = the average amount of remittances (measured in local
currency) that could have been made per period if this type of
worker had been employed abroad.
(Ee/Em – 1) = rate of the foreign exchange premium.
32
EOCL if International Migration Flows
-- Case 2: Economic Opportunity Cost of Foreign Labor -• There is an economic opportunity cost associated with hiring
foreign labor (EOCLF) which should be included in the project
assessment.
• The EOCLF is the net-of-tax wage paid to the foreign worker plus
adjustments to the amount of foreign exchange associated with the
repatriated portion, and adjustments to the amount of VAT
associated with consumption by the foreign workers using the nonrepatriated portion of that wage, plus any subsidies the foreign
workers may benefit from while in the country.
• Foreign workers’ consumption in the country should be accounted
for as an economic benefit to the country while the hostgovernment subsidies to foreign workers on a variety of items such
as food, fuel, housing and health care are an economic cost.
33
Case 2 (cont’d)
• The economic opportunity cost of foreign labor can be expressed
as:
EOCLF = WF(1-Th) - WF(1-Th)(1-fr)tVAT + WF(1-Th)fr(Ee/Em-1) + N
where:
WF = gross-of-tax wage of foreign labor
Th = personal income tax levied by the host country on foreign
labor
tVAT = VAT rate levied on consumption
fr = proportion of the net-of-tax income repatriated by foreign
labor
Ee = economic exchange rate
Em = market exchange rate
N = value of benefits gained by foreign workers from subsidies
• If EOCLF is lower than the market wage, this means that the
country is benefiting economically from the presence of foreign
34
labor.
Example: A Multinational Corporation Employing Foreign Labor
• A multinational corporation considering an electronic assembly
project in an urban area discovered that there was insufficient local
labor.
• Import skilled workers from a nearby country
• 50 workers who will be paid $200 per month
• 25% personal income tax.
• Each worker is expected to repatriate 30% of her net-of-tax income
to support family members at home.
• The VAT rate is 15%.
• The economic value of foreign exchange is estimated to be 6%
higher than the market value of exchange rate.
• Assume that there are no subsidies paid by the government with
respect to these workers, i.e. N = 0.
35
Example (cont’d)
• Estimation of the EOCL:
EOCLF = WF(1-Th) - WF(1-Th)(1-fr)tVAT + WF(1-Th)fr(Ee/Em-1) + N
= 200(1 - 0.25) - 200(1 - 0.25)(1 - 0.30)0.15
+ 200(1 - 0.25)0.30[(44.85/39) – 1]
= 150 - 15.75 + 6.75
= 141
• The economic opportunity cost of each worker will be $59
less than the gross-of-tax wage of $200.
• Hence, there is a beneficial externality created if the project
uses foreign labor.
36
Effects of a Protected Sector on the EOCL
• There is a segmentation of the urban labor market between a
protected sector and an unprotected or open sector.
• The protected sector is usually made up of the government agencies,
foreign companies, and large local firms which provide wages (Wp)
above the market clearing wage.
• Employment in the protected urban labor force is highly desired, with a
variety of rationing methods used to select the people to fill the limited
number of positions.
• The open labor market is affected by fewer distortions to the supply
price of labor (Wo). Wages are determined competitively in the
marketplace where there are fewer barriers to entry, lower wages and
less security of employment.
• While workers may be initially attracted to this labor market by the
hope of finding a job in the protected sector, they often end up working
in the open labor market.
37
EOCL in the Protected Sector (cont’d)
Wage
Rate
O
S
p
W1
O
W
S
O
QQV
Q
A1
Open Market
Employment
A
QPr
B
Quasi-voluntary
Unemployed
C
Protected
Employment
• Overall supply of labor is given by (SST)
• Total number of workers available for
work at the protected sector wage of W is
point C.
number of protected sector jobs
T • The
S
available is much more limited at QPr.
• There is an excess supply of labor
available at the protected sector wage, as
shown by the quantity B .
Do
• If the selection of workers for employment
in the protected sector is done in a random
fashion from the available workers, the
supply of labor available to the open
market will be a fraction (B/C) of the total
labor supply SST at each wage rate. This
labor supply is shown as the curve SSO.
38
EOCL in the Protected Sector (cont’d)
•
Demand for labor in the open sector is perfectly elastic at a wage
rate of WO, intersection of the demand for labor in the open sector
(WODO) with the supply (SSO) determines the quantity employed in
the open market. This quantity is indicated by point A1.
•
The quantity of labor classified as unemployed (QQV) is determined
from the difference between points A1 and B. These quasivoluntary unemployed are those workers that will not choose to
take jobs in the open market sector because their basic supply
price of labor is above the open market wage (WO).
•
Workers who actively seek jobs in the protected sector will
consider themselves involuntarily unemployed. They are seeking
work which will pay the protected sector wage (W), but are unable
to find it.
39
Project in Protected Sector (cont’d)
• Adding a project to the protected sector increases the size of the protected sector
from (C-B) to (C-B1). If additional workers (B-B1) are selected randomly from
those remaining who want to work in the protected sector, the supply of labor to
the open market will now shift to the left from SSO to SS1.
Wage Rate
T
1
S
p
S
SO
W1
W
Do
O
S
B1
A1
E
A
C
B
• The number of workers willing to take
jobs in the open sector will fall from A1
to E.
• When workers are attracted from the
unemployed and open sectors in
proportion to their numbers in the labor
pool, in the absence of any distortions,
the economic opportunity cost of labor
to this project is a weighted average of
the open sector wage (WO), and the
average supply price of the quasivoluntary unemployed [(WO + WP)/2].
• The
relevant
weights
are
the
proportions that people in each of those
categories will be chosen for the
protected sector jobs.
40
Project in Protected Sector (cont’d)
• The expression for the economic opportunity cost of protected sector
jobs as:
EOCLP = WO  [QO/(QO+QQV)]
+ [(WO+W1P)/2]  [QQV/(QO+QQV)]
• When income taxes are levied on wages in the open sector, there is
an additional economic cost to hiring workers from this open sector
inclusive of income taxes.
• For the quasi-voluntary unemployed hired by the protected sector,
their economic opportunity cost is the average of the net-of-tax open
and protected sector wages in which the latter pay no taxes when
unemployed.
41
EOCL with Two Protected Sectors
Wage
Rate
Wage
Rate
Before Project
After Project
T
S
p
1
W
T
S
O
S1
W
W
W
O
p
1
p
2
SO
O
O
Do
S
W
D
S
S
A B
C
H A1 F G A B
C
• The protected sector can contain a series of segmented markets,
with different protected sector wages, Wp1, Wp2, ...Wpn.
42
EOCL with Any Protected Sector
• Under these conditions of a linear supply curve and a perfectly elastic
demand for labor at the open wage of WO, the EOCL for any protected
sector paying a wage, Wi, can be expressed as:
P+WO
T{W P}T{WO}
T
O
W
[(S
S
S {W }] ( i
i
O+
EOCLiP = [ T
]W
)
P
2
S {Wi }
ST{WiP}
• The EOCL for any protected sector is simply a weighted average of
- the open sector wage, WO, and
- the average of the specific protected sector wage and the open sector wage.
• The weights can all be expressed as functions of the original total
market supply of labor ST{Wi}.
43
EOCL When Labor Not Employed Full Time
-- Labor Employed Less than Full Year in Market Activities --
Assume:
1. Each worker can spend part of each year working and part in
non-market activities or unemployment.
2. Workers are employed in market activities for a proportion (Pp)
of the year if they work for the project.
3. If not associated with the project, workers are employed a
different proportion (Pa) of the year. No taxes on non-market
activities.
4. Wgs is the gross-of-tax supply price of skilled labor in the area
of the project; and Wa is the alternative wage which reflects
this labor's other opportunities.
44
EOCL When Labor Not Employed Full Time (cont’d)
• The EOCL is equal to the gross-of-tax expected supply price
for labor (Wgs), but only working a portion of the year on the
project (Pp), minus the additional tax payments that the
worker would incur if earning her supply price wage Wgs on
this project.
EOCL = PpWgs - (PpWgs T - HdPaWaT)
• This additional tax is the difference between the tax paid on
the project (PpWgsT) and the tax previously paid in the
alternative mix of market activities (HdPaWaT).
45
EOCL When Labor Not Employed Full Time
-- Permanent and Temporary Jobs with an
Unemployment Insurance System and Labor Migration --
• We differentiate between those engaged in full-time and parttime employment.
• People in the permanent (or full-time) employment sector are
almost never unemployed. Workers employed by temporary
sectors such as tourism or construction are in jobs that are
expected to be associated with repeated spells of employment.
• The type of employment created by a project is important.
- Temporary jobs can have a higher economic cost than permanent
job when UI payments are paid to these workers when they are
unemployed but engaged in non-market activities.
- These support payments affect the EOCL associated with a job.
46
EOCL of Permanent Jobs
1. When project creates new permanent jobs they will generally be filled
by individuals already working in alternative permanent sector job,
Hdp, other temporary sector jobs, Hdt, and some hired from those who
are currently out of labor force, Hs. Thus, Hdp + Hdt + Hs = 1.
2. For those sourced from permanent sector externality of taxes lost of
HdpWpT.
3. For those sourced from the temporary sector there is loss in taxes,
HdtPtWtT, and a gain in reduced UI payments, Hdt(1-Pt)fU(1-T), where
f denotes the proportion of time an unemployed worker expects to
collect UI benefits and U denotes the amount of UI benefits.
4. No externalities for share Hs are sourced from outside labor force.
Thus,
EOCLP = Wgs(1 – T) + HdpWpT + Hdt[PtWtT – (1 – Pt)fU(1 – T)]
47
EOCL of Permanent Jobs (cont’d)
•
If unemployment insurance :
EOCLP = Wgs(1 – T) + HdpWpT + Hdt[PtWtT – (1 – Pt)fU(1 – T)]
•
If no unemployment insurance:
EOCLP = Wgs(1 – T) + HdpWpT + HdtPtWtTt
48
EOCL for Temporary Sector Jobs
• Creation of 12 months of temporary sector employment
is equal to a person year job.
• Workers sourced in proportions, Hdp’, Hdt’, Hs’ permanent,
temporary employment and supply of labor who were
previously out of the labor market.
• Pt is the proportion of time a person actually works per
year in a temporary sector job per year.
• For each period of labor services sourced from the
permanent sector there will be 1/Pt individuals,
(1–Pt)/Pt period of unemployment, and f[(1–Pt)/Pt]
periods of paid UI compensation.
49
EOCL for Temporary Sector Jobs (cont’d)
•
EOCL of 12 months of temporary sector job is:
EOCLT = Wgs(1 – T) + (Hdp/Pt) [WpT + (1 – Pt)fU(1–T)]
+ HdtWt(Tt) + (Hs/Pt )(1-Pt)fU(1 – Tt)
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In the case where the supply price Wgs is the same for
both permanent and temporary job then EOCLT >
EOCLP for a 12-month job.
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A greater amount of taxes will be lost if temporary jobs
and UI increased.
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