Transcript Total population (in million)

China’s Overview
-Year 2005
Starmass International, Beijing, China
Your key to successful business in China
Contents
• Demographical key points
• Macroeconomic key points
• Imports and exports
• Impact on global economy
• Key drivers for future growth
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Demographical Key Points
Total population (in million)
1,400
1,292
1,200
1,000
800
`
600
400
200
78
80
85
89
90
91
92
93
94
95
96
97
98
99
00
01
02
• Total population – 1,299,988,000 as at 2004, whereas:
- Male: 51.5%; female: 48.5%
• China’s population reached 1.3 billion on Jan 6, 2005
Remarks: China in this presentation refers to mainland China only, excluding Taiwan, Hong Kong and Macao.
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03
Year
Population by Region
Population by province or city (in million, 2002)
Tianjin
Hebei
Shanxi
Inner
Mongolia
Liaoning
Jilin
Heilong
jiang
Population 14.23
10.07
67.35
32.94
23.79
42.03
26.99
38.13
Region
Jiangsu
Zhejiang
Anhui
Fujian
Jiangxi
Shandong Henan
Population 16.25
73.81
46.47
63.38
34.66
42.22
90.82
96.13
Region
Hunan
Guangdong
Guangxi
Hainan
Chongqing
Sichuan
Guizhou
66.29
78.59
48.22
8.03
31.07
86.73
38.37
Region
Beijing
Shanghai
Hubei
Population 59.88
Region
Yunnan
Population 43.33
Tibet
Shaanxi
Gansu
Qinghai
Ningxia
Xinjiang
2.67
36.74
25.93
5.29
5.72
19.05
• Hehan is the largest province with population 96.13 million
• Shanghai is the largest city with population 16.25 million
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Distribution Map of China Giant City
Beijing
Shanghai
Hong Kong
Total 660 cities in China in 2002, whereas:
• 10 cities with population 4 million and over
• 279 cities with population 0.5-1 million
• 23 cities with population 2-4 million
• 171 cities with population 0.2-0.5 million
• 138 cities with population 1-2 million
• 39 cities with population under 0.2 million
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Industrialization and Urbanization
100%
90%
80%
70%
percent of rural
population
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
Percent of urban
population
10%
0%
78
80
85
89
90
91
92
93
94
95
96
97
98
99
00
• Percentage of urban population: 19.2% in 1978; 40.5% in 2003
• Additional 1-1.5 %, or 12-18 million people from rural to urban per year
• Every two years: an additional Australia
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01
02
03
Population by Age Group
0-14
15-64
65 and over
%
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
1964
1982
1990
2000
2003
• Aging population, 65 and over in 2003: 7.5%
• By 2050, the elder (60 and over) will reach 400 million
• Labor force reached 740 million in 2003; by 2020, will increase to 940 million
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Population with Education Attainments
Junior College and Above
Junior Secondary School
Senior Secondary/Secondary Technical School
Primary School
90%
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
1964
1982
1990
2000
• Junior colleague and above reached 55.54 million in 2002, or 5.25% of total population
• Total 2110 universities & colleagues in China in 2003, total 11.87 million students whereas:
- 11.08 million: bachelor or diploma degree
- 651.3 thousand: master degree, and 136.7 thousand: doctor’s degree
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2002
Macroeconomic Key Points
China GDP and GDP per capita
1600
1400
GDP (USD, in billion)
GDP per capita (USD)
1200
1000
800
600
400
200
0
78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03
• GDP reached USD 1414 billion in 2003, GDP PPP estimated at USD 6720 billion
• Strong economic growth during 1978-2003, average GDP growth 9.4%, 2004: 9%
• GDP per capita hit USD1095, average growth of GDP per capita 8.1% during 1978-2003
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GDP by Industries
USD, in billion
1600
1400
1200
1000
Service industry
800
600
Industry
400
200
Agriculture
0
78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03
• Industrial sector grew faster than GDP, which was high percent of GDP in 2003 at
52.94%
• Service industry shared 32.5% of GDP in 2003, which was much lower than world
average level at 64%, and lower than that of average developing countries at 45%
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Economy by Cities with Population > 5m
GDP (USD, in billion)
GDP per capita (USD, in hundred)
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
Ningbo
Xi'an
Chengdu
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Chongqing
- Guangzhou: USD 36.38 billion
Guangzhou
- Beijing: USD 38.94 billion
Changsha
- Shanghai: USD 65.56 billion
Wuhan
Zhengzhou
Qingdao
Jinan
Fuzhou
Hangzhou
Nanjing
Shanghai
Harbin
Changchun
Dalian
Shenyang
Shijiazhuang
Tianjin
Beijing
Top three giant cities in terms of economic scale in 2002:
Economy by Cities with Population 1-5m
GDP (USD, in billion)
GDP per capita (USD, in hundred)
55
50
45
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
Urumqi
Yinchuan
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Xining
- Guangzhou: USD 5049 (population 7.21 million)
Lanzhou
- Shenzhen: USD 5576 (population 4.91 million)
Kunming
- Xiamen: USD 5730 (population1.37 million)
Guiyang
Nanning
Shenzhen
Nanchang
Xiamen
Hefei
Hohhot
Taiyuan
Top three cities in terms of GDP per capita in 2002:
Imports & Exports
USD in billion
• Total value of imports in 2004: USD 561.4 billion; exports: USD 593.4 billion
• Total value of imports and exports in 2004 reached USD 1.15 trillion, world’s third
largest trading nation after U.S and Germany
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Imports by Category of Commodities
Food & beverage
2%
Mechanical and
electrical
products
53%
Raw materials
& misc 16%
Chemical
products
13%
Textile, minerals
products
16%
Mechanical and electrical products in 2002: USD 155.6 billion or 52.7% of total
value of imports.
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Imports by Main Countries or Region
Japan
17.9%
Others
34.8%
Taiw an
11.9%
Russia
2.3%
Singapore
2.5%
Hong Kong Malaysia
2.7%
3.4%
Germany
5.9%
U.S
8.2%
South Korea
10.4%
• Japan is the largest importing country to China, USD 74.2 billion in 2003 or 17.9% of
total imports value
• Top five importing countries or region to China: Japan, Taiwan, South Korea, U.S &
Germany
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Exports by Main Countries or Region
South Korea
4.6%
Germany Holland U.K
3.1% 2.5%
4.0%
Taiw an
2.1%
Japan
13.6%
Singapore
2.0%
France
1.7%
Others
28.1%
Hong Kong
17.4%
U.S
21.1%
• China largest exporting country - U.S: USD 92.5 billion in 2003, or 21.1% of total value
• Top five exporting countries or region of China: U.S, Hong Kong, Japan, South Korea,
Germany
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Total Amount of FDI Actually Used
USD, in billion
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
85
89
90
91
92
93
94
95
96
97
98
99
00
01
02
03
04
• Total amount of FDI actually used in 2004: USD 60.3 billion, increased by 12.7% than
that of 2003
• Total accumulated amount of FDI actually used as at 2004: USD 561.77 billion
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FDI by Main Countries or Region
USD, in billion
U.K
11.44
France
6.15
Germany
8.85
Others
57.17
Hong Kong
222.58
South Korea
19.69
Singapore
23.53
Virgin Island
30.17
Taiwan
36.49
Japan
41.39
U.S
44.01
• Hong Kong: largest region investor to China – total actually used FDI as at 2003
accumulated to USD 222.59 billion or 44.39% of total FDI
• Top five investors to China: Kong Hong, U.S, Japan, Taiwan and Virgin Island
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Foreign Currency Reserves
690
590
490
390
290
190
90
-10
78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04
• Foreign currency reserves as at 2003: USD 403.3 billion
• Foreign currency reserves as at 2004: USD 609.9 billion, world’s second largest
nation in terms of foreign currency reserves after Japan
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Impacts on Global Economy
Countries
Nominal GDP in 2002
Real GDP growth
Contribution to global economy
USD, in billion
%
2002
2003
2002
2003
Global
32,032
100.0
2.8
3.2
100.0
100.0
U.S
10,427
32.6
2.4
3.1
28.0
31.0
Japan
4,004
12.5
0.1
2.6
0.5
10.0
Germany
1,987
6.2
0.2
0.0
0.4
0.0
U.K
1,538
4.8
1.7
2.0
2.9
2.9
France
1,419
4.4
1.2
0.7
1.9
1.7
China
1,241
3.9
8.0
9.1
11.1
11.3
Italy
1,178
3.7
0.4
0.5
0.5
0.6
East Asia
3,637
11.4
5.9
5.8
23.9
20.9
Others
6,601
20.5
-
-
30.8
21.6
• China: the sixth largest economic nation in the world in 2002.
• Although China nominal DGP in 2002 was 3.9% of global economy, it contributed to
11.1% of global economy growth, and enjoyed fastest economic growth in the world
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Percentage Distribution of Global Output
35
U.S
%
U.K
Germany
China
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
1830
1860
1913
2002
2020
• China was once the largest economic nation in earlier19 century, dropped down
sharply since 1830, lowest as 2.6% in 1913.
• Percentage was increased to 3.9% in 2002, and it will be 25.6% of global output by
2020, become the world’s second largest economic nation
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China-led Global Linkages
Share of export growth going to China
Chinese share of exports
%
100
80
60
40
20
0
Taiw an
Japan
South Korea
Malaysia
Singapore
Thailand
U.S
• Near100% of Taiwan export growth going to China in 2003
• 73% of Japan and 41% of South Korea export growth going to China in 2003
• China is the main engine to drive Asia economic growth
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EU
Share of US Import Market
Japan
China
%
25
20
15
10
5
0
80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03
• China’s share of US import market surpassed Japan in 2002 at 11.1%
• In 2003, China surpassed Mexico and become US second largest importer after
Canada
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Share of US, Japan & EU Import Market
U.S
%
Japan
EU
20
18
16
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
70
80
90
91
92
93
94
95
96
97
98
99
00
01
• China surpassed U.S in 2002 and became Japan’s largest importing nation
• China surpassed Japan in 2003 and became EU’s second largest importing
nation after U.S
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02
Share of ASEAN Import Market
Indonesia
%
Malaysia
Phillips
Singapore
Thailand
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
1990
1995
2000
2001
2002
2003
Shares of ASEAN import market in 2003:
- Indonesia: 5.6%; Malaysia: 6.1%; Philip: 5.9%; Singapore: 6.7%; Thailand: 6.9%
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Key Drivers of Future Growth
• Autonomous domestic engine of growth: independent of
external demand
• Household, infrastructural development
• Effect of privatization and urbanization
• Strong FDI inflows and exports
• High national saving rate, and high investment rate
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Surging Material Demand
China's shares in 2003
%
45
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
World GDP
Aluminium
Steel
Iron ore
Global coal
Cement
In 2003, China shares of world economy was 4%, but it consumed 25% of
aluminium, 27% of steel, 30% of Iron, 31% of global coal and close to 41% of
cement, which certainly drove the growth of relevant industries
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National Saving Rate
50
Percentage of GDP, 2002
%
40
30
20
10
0
U.S
Advanced
countries
EU
Developing
countries
Japan
China
• China enjoys very high national saving rate, 46% in 2003, which means high
investment rate in China
• Since 1990, China maintains national saving rate at about 40%.
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