Transcript cee foreign trade

FOREIGN TRADE IN CENTRAL-EASTERN EUROPE
Speaker:
Agenda:
Andrew England
UniCredit in CEE
Head of Global Transaction Banking, CEE
CEE’s Foreign Trade
Romania’s Foreign Trade
CEE Growth Drivers
How UniCredit can support trade
business in CEE
Bucharest, April 5th 2011
UNICREDIT IN CENTRAL-EASTERN EUROPE
Country
Lithuania2
Latvia2
Estonia2
Russia
Mkt. position
by Total Assets
No. 10
No. 9
No. 7
No. 9
~ € 124 bn
total assets1
Poland
No 2
Czech.
CEE region*
Ukraine
No. 5
Rep.2
~ 3,900
branches1
Kazakhstan
No. 5
No. 4
~ 72,300
employees1
Slovakia
No. 5
Hungary
No. 7
Romania
No. 5
~ 30m
customers2
Bulgaria
~ 128k
corporate clients2
Slovenia
No. 5
No. 1
Croatia
No. 1
Bosnia1
No. 1
Serbia
No. 4
Turkey
In Top 3
In Top 5
In Top 10
*)
2
(1)
(2)
data as of 3Q 2010
data as of 1H 2010
data as of YE 2009
Source: UniCredit CEE Strategic Analysis
No. 5
~ 1.800
dedicated corporate
relationship
managers2
CEE FOREIGN TRADE: MERCHANDISE TRADE VALUE 1999 - 2012
Forecast of close to 2 Trillion Euros in 2011 for CEE-17 merchandise foreign trade; after 20%
drop in 2009, CEE foreign trade steadily recovering, roughly balanced between imports/exports
CEE-17 Merchandise Foreign Trade 1999-2012F in BlnEUR
1968
Merchandise Imports, BlnEUR
Merchandise Exports, BlnEUR
1432
1325
1080
877
293
394
54%
46%
54%
46%
1999
2000
523
51%
638
49%
713
49%
50%
50%
48%
49%
48%
47%
48%
49%
51%
51%
52%
2001
2002
2003
2004
SOURCE: UniCredit Group Research
49%
48%
53%
52%
50%
2005
2006
2007
*CEE-17: BA, BG, CZ, BALTICS, KZ, HR, HU, PL, RO, RU,RS, SI, SK, UA, TR
3
1759
1737
1572
2115
51%
52%
2008
2009
52%
51%
50%
2010
2011
2012
As comparison, in 2011, for merchandise trade:
GERMANY 1.9 Trillion EUR
TURKEY: 264 Bln Eur (13% of CEE-17)
ITALY: 762 BlnEUR
RUSSIA: 517 BlnEUR (26% of CEE-17)
AUSTRIA: 243 BlnEUR
POLAND: 276BlnEUR (14% of CEE-17)
CEE FOREIGN TRADE: SHARE IN WORLD TRADE 2005 - 2009
CEE between 7-8% of world trade, with Asia and EU-15 expected to grow significantly
100%
7,0%
7,5%
8,2%
8,1%
8,9%
CEE17
90%
OTHERS
80%
18,5%
18,0%
16,9%
16,1%
16,1%
28,5%
28,9%
28,9%
29,5%
30,7%
70%
N.AMERICA
60%
50%
ASIA
40%
30%
20%
38,6%
37,9%
37,9%
36,5%
36,4%
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
10%
0%
EU-15
Asia
North America
SOURCE: WTO; UniCredit Group CEE/GTB Coordination
4
Middle East
South America
Africa
CEE17
EU15
CEE FOREIGN TRADE: INDUSTRY STRUCTURE 2005 – 2015F
Fairly stable industry structure, with manufacturing close to half, confirms CEE’s growing role
as a manufacturing region
CEE-17*: Top 5 Industry Sectors 2005-2015E by share in Foreign Trade
Other
29%
29%
29%
29%
29%
28%
28%
28%
27%
27%
27%
5%
5%
5%
5%
6%
5%
6%
5%
6%
6%
6%
6%
6%
6%
5%
5%
5%
5%
5%
7%
6%
6%
7%
5%
5%
6%
5%
6%
6%
7%
7%
7%
7%
8%
8%
8%
8%
7%
7%
7%
8%
8%
8%
8%
46%
46%
46%
46%
47%
47%
47%
47%
47%
47%
47%
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
Motor Vehicles
Chemicals
Mining
Basic Metals
Manufacturing
5
*CEE-17: BA, BG, CZ, BALTICS, KZ, HR, HU, PL,
RO, RU,RS, SI, SK, UA, TR
SOURCE: UniCredit Group CEE/GTB Coordination
CEE-9*: TOP-10 TRADE PARTNERS 2010
Total “merchandise” trade of CEE-9 countries in 2010 was roughly 1.5 Trillion EUR, of which close to half (~47%)
was made with the top-10 partners; Germany is by far the largest destination and source for both export/import.
140
40.0%
CEE-9: TOP 10 EXPORT DESTINATIONS (BlnEUR, %, EOY 2010)
120
35.0%
23.5%
30.0%
100
25.0%
80
60
126
20.0%
7.0%
6.5%
4.3%
40
3.4%
3.4%
3.1%
3.1%
15.0%
2.6%
10.0%
20
38
35
5.0%
23
18
18
17
16
14
14
UK
CN
PL
SK
RU
AT
CZ
0
DE
140
2.5%
IT
FR
30.0%
18%
CEE-9: TOP 10 IMPORT SOURCES (BlnEUR,%, EOY 2010)
120
25.0%
100
10%
80
60
8%
20.0%
8%
6%
4%
117
15.0%
3%
3%
2%
2%
10.0%
40
61
20
54
48
5.0%
41
23
20
16
0
DE
CN
RU
*CEE-9: BG, CZ, HR, HU, PL, RO, RU, SK, TR
6
0.0%
SOURCE: UniCredit Group CEE/GTB Coordination
IT
NL
PL
US
FR
14
14
KR
TR
0.0%
CEE FOREIGN TRADE: GERMANY AND ITALY AS DRIVERS
Germany and Italy remain the main trading partners of CEE
Central Europe
Czech Republic
30%
TO GERMANY
German export shares (%)
35%
Hungary
25%
Poland
South Eastern Europe
20%
Slovakia
Russia
15%
EE
10%
LV
Slovenia
Bulgaria
LT
Ukraine
Turkey
Romania
Croatia
Bosnia
Kazakhstan
5%
0%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
Italian export shares (%) to ITALY
SOURCE: WTO; UniCredit Group Research
7
ROMANIA: FOREIGN TRADE VALUE 1999 – 2012F
ROMANIA’s merchandise foreign trade followed the same trend as the rest of CEE; largest growing
markets are Turkey for exports (+69% yoy 2010) and Russia for imports (+40% yoy 2010)
ROMANIA Merchandise Foreign Trade 1999-2012F in BlnEUR
105
Merchandise Imports, BlnEUR
Merchandise Exports, BlnEUR
54%
62%
43
17
53%
47%
1999
54%
29
56%
35
54%
56%
46%
44%
46%
44%
44%
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
SOURCE: UniCredit Group CEE/GTB Coordination
8
61%
54%
55%
59%
56%
54%
65
52
24
79
77
63
32
91
85
57%
43%
41%
38%
39%
2005
2006
2007
2008
45%
2009
46%
46%
46%
2010
2011
2012
ROMANIA: TOP-10 TRADE PARTNERS 2010
Total “merchandise” trade of ROMANIA in 2010 was roughly 80 BlnEUR, of which ~68% was made with the
top-10 partners; Germany is here too the largest destination and source for both export/import
6
30.0%
18%
5
ROMANIA: TOP 10 EXPORT DESTINATIONS ( BlnEUR, %, EOY 2010)
25.0%
14%
4
8%
20.0%
7%
3
5%
4.9
2
4%
4%
15.0%
3%
3%
3%
10.0%
3.7
2.3
1
1.8
5.0%
1.3
1.0
1.0
0.8
0.7
0.7
HU
UK
BG
ES
PL
NL
0
0.0%
DE
IT
FR
TR
6
30.0%
ROMANIA: TOP 10 IMPORT SOURCES ( BlnEUR, %, EOY 2010)
17%
5
25.0%
12%
4
3
20.0%
8%
6%
5.7
2
6%
5%
4%
4%
4%
3%
15.0%
10.0%
3.9
2.9
2.0
1
1.9
1.5
1.4
1.3
CN
RU
AT
PL
1.2
1.2
TR
NL
0
0.0%
DE
IT
HU
FR
SOURCE: INSSE, UniCredit Group CEE/GTB Coordination
9
5.0%
ROMANIA: FOREIGN TRADE STRUCTURE 2010
Machinery continued to drive ROMANIA’s foreign trade; transport and textiles lead the export, while
chemicals registered the highest %-age deficit.
30%
EXPORTS FOB 2010
IMPORTS FOB 2010
25%
20%
15%
27%
29%
10%
17%
15%
12%
5%
7%
12%
9%
11%
10%
8%
10%
8%
11%
8%
5%
0%
Machinery
Transport
Textiles
SOURCE: INSSE, UniCredit Group CEE/GTB Coordination
10
Metallurgical
Other
Chemicals
Agro-food
Mineral prod.
ROMANIA: SHARE IN CEE TRADE 1999 - 2009
Before the crisis, although a relative middle place in overall regional trade (8 th), Romania had the
2nd fastest growth in the CEE, with an annual average of 17% versus 13% for the region
SHARE IN TOTAL REGION FOREIGN TRADE '99-'09
FOREIGN TRADE CAGR '99-'09
25%
RU
21%
13%
PL
KZ
17%
13%
TR
16%
10%
CZ
5%
UA
5%
SK
3%
KZ
3%
SI
HR
2%
BG
2%
14%
RS
14%
LT
CEE17
13%
CZ
12%
PL
12%
UA
12%
LV
1%
EE
LV
1%
RS
1%
BA
1%
0%
BG
13%
2%
LT
10%
TR
10%
HU
10%
BA
9%
SI
9%
EE
8%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30% 25%
SOURCE: UniCredit Group CEE/GTB Coordination
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RU
14%
4%
RO
SK
14%
9%
HU
RO
CEE-17: BA, BG, CZ, BALTICS, KZ, HR, HU, PL, RO, RU,RS, SI, SK, UA, TR
20%
15%
10%
HR
5%
0%
CEE GROWTH: TRADE AND PRIVATE CONSUMPTION AS DRIVERS
Export intensity and private consumption were key in driving growth across the CEE.
PRIVATE CONSUMPTION
TURKEY: internal demand
2009
2010E
GDP (growth, YoY)
-4.7
+8.2%
Private Consumption
(growth, YoY)
-2.2
+7.1%
Export as % of GDP
18%
20%
ROMANIA
POLAND: internal & trade
2009
2010E
GDP (growth, YoY)
+1.7%
+3.8%
Private Consumption
(growth, YoY)
+2.1%
+3.1%
33%
35%
Export as % of GDP
SLOVAKIA: trade
2009
2010E
GDP (growth, YoY)
-7.1%
-1.3%
Private Consumption
(growth, YoY)
-9.2%
Export as % of GDP
23%
2009
2010E
GDP (growth, YoY)
-4.8%
+4%
-1.0%
Private Consumption
(growth, YoY)
+0.2%
+0.3%
23%
Export as % of GDP
70%
74%
EXPORT % in GDP
SOURCE: UniCredit Group CEE/GTB Coordination
12
HOW CAN UNICREDIT SUPPORT GROWTH?
BY ENABLING FLOWS
►STRONG TRANSACTION BANK FRANCHISE IN CEE: 12%ms* in documentary credit
 Top 5 bank in main CEE export countries (Czech Republic, Slovakia, Hungary, Turkey)
 Number 2 in Poland after state-owned no.1
 More than 2000 transactions specialists and 4.000+ corresponding banks
 Experience of over 400.000 corporate customers worldwide
►INTERMEDIARY FOR MENA** FLOWS TO CEE: 13%ms*** in documentary credit
 Turkey as a spear-head for region's operations
 Expertise and strong relationship with main exporters/importers
►EBRD CREDITS TO SMEs IN CEE
 Over 430 MEUR to boost flows to real economy in 7 CEE countries ****
*SWIFT statistics Feb-2011
13
**MENA: Middle-East Nord-Africa
*** Sep. 2010
**** BG, HR, RS, BA, UA, KZ, KG
HOW CAN UNICREDIT SUPPORT GROWTH?
BY DEVELOPING SOLUTIONS TO ADVANCE TRADE
►SCF – SUPPLY CHAIN FINANCING PLATFORM
 Buyer centric financing model (post shipment phase of the trade finance cycle)
 Innovative approach for working capital financing without classical loan granting process
 Involves sell of receivables by the supplier, which in turn has the chance to obtain financing
at favorable conditions thanks to the generally better rating of the Buyer
►SPE – SINGLE POINT OF ENTRY FOR L/Gs AND L/Cs
 Single entry point to send Letters of Credit (UC SEP L/C) and requests to issue
guarantees (UC SEP L/G)
 Beneficiaries domiciled in Europe (all countries where UniCredit is present – CEE plus
Austria, Germany and Italy).
►Renminbi (RMB) Settlement Program for trade with China
 Improved Supplier Relationship: simple & faster tax rebates processes for Chinese
suppliers and reduced costs in the supply chain
 Pricing Transparency: increase transparency as pricing of goods without FX risks and costs
mark-up
 Widening Supplier Base: access to foreign currency in China is limited, RMB settlement
can be used to access a wider supplier base and to optimize payment terms
14
KEY DETERMINANTS IN GROWING TRADE
►Market proximity relevant for expanding trade;
►Close relationship with bank and operating partner to access new markets;
►Strong local support to invest in value chain linked to manufacturing output;
►Relevant governmental support to manage medium term trade investments
(ECAs);
►Tools to manage liquidity, counterparty and country risk;
►Ability to monetize trade receivables.
15