ICEG Doc (Aug. 2016) - Dr. Ebenezer M. Ashley

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Transcript ICEG Doc (Aug. 2016) - Dr. Ebenezer M. Ashley

REPOSITIONING GHANA’S
ECONOMY FOR DEVELOPMENT
AND GROWTH: THE ROLE OF
NATURAL RESOURCES
(CRUDE OIL)
Dr. Ebenezer M. Ashley
Institute of Certified Economists of
Ghana (ICEG)
Public Lecture, GNAT Hall, Accra.
3rd August, 2016.
REPOSITIONING GHANA’S ECONOMY FOR DEVELOPMENT AND
GROWTH: THE ROLE OF NATURAL RESOURCES
(CRUDE OIL)
Presentation Outline

Overview

Components of Sectors of the Economy

Crude Oil

Current Developments in Some Oil-Driven
Economies

Economic Diversification Concept

Ghana – The Way Forward
REPOSITIONING GHANA’S ECONOMY FOR DEVELOPMENT AND
GROWTH: THE ROLE OF NATURAL RESOURCES
(CRUDE OIL)
Overview
The Ghanaian economy is endowed with diverse
forms of natural resources including forests; and
minerals such as gold, diamond, bauxite,
manganese, and crude oil. Ghana ranks very high
among West African countries endowed with natural
resources.
Components of Sectors of the Economy
Ghana’s domestic economy revolves around three (3)
major sectors. These include Agricultural, Industrial
and Services sectors.
REPOSITIONING GHANA’S ECONOMY FOR DEVELOPMENT AND
GROWTH: THE ROLE OF NATURAL RESOURCES
(CRUDE OIL)
Components of Sectors of the Economy Cont’d
 Agricultural sector: This comprises crops such
as cocoa and cashew; livestock; forestry and
logging; and fishing, among others.
 Industrial sector: This includes mining and
quarrying such as gold, diamond, bauxite,
manganese and crude oil; manufacturing;
electricity; water and sewerage; and
construction, among others.
REPOSITIONING GHANA’S ECONOMY FOR DEVELOPMENT AND
GROWTH: THE ROLE OF NATURAL RESOURCES
(CRUDE OIL)
Components of Sectors of the Economy Cont’d
 Services sector: This comprises trade; repair
of vehicles; household goods; hotels and
restaurants; transport and storage; information
and communication; financial and insurance
activities; real estate; professional,
administrative and support services activities;
public administration and defence; social
security; education; health and social work;
community, social and personal services
activities.
REPOSITIONING GHANA’S ECONOMY FOR DEVELOPMENT AND
GROWTH: THE ROLE OF NATURAL RESOURCES
(CRUDE OIL)
Sector Contribution to GDP
2015
2014
2013
2012
2011
Agricultural sector 19.0% 21.5% 22.0% 23.0% 25.5%
Industrial sector
26.9% 26.6% 28.5% 28.6% 25.6%
Services sector
54.1% 51.9% 49.5% 48.4% 49.1%
Source: Ghana Statistical Service (GSS)
Sector Growth Rate
2015 2014 2013
Agricultural sector 0.04% 5.3% 5.2%
Industrial sector
9.1% 4.6% 7.3%
Services sector
4.7% 4.6% 8.9%
Source: Ghana Statistical Service
2012
2011
2.3%
0.8%
11.0% 41.1%
11.0% 8.3%
REPOSITIONING GHANA’S ECONOMY FOR DEVELOPMENT AND
GROWTH: THE ROLE OF NATURAL RESOURCES
(CRUDE OIL)
Ghana’s Annual Real GDP Growth
(2011-2015)
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
=
=
=
=
=
14.0%
9.3%
7.3%
4.0%
4.1%
Source: Ghana Statistical Service

Average Annual Real GDP Growth = 7.74%
REPOSITIONING GHANA’S ECONOMY FOR DEVELOPMENT AND
GROWTH: THE ROLE OF NATURAL RESOURCES
(CRUDE OIL)
Average Sector Contribution to GDP (2011-2015)
Agricultural sector = 22.2%
Industrial sector = 27.24%
Services sector = 50.6%
Average Sector Growth Rate (2011-2015)
Agricultural sector = 2.73%
Industrial sector = 14.62%
Services sector = 7.5%
REPOSITIONING GHANA’S ECONOMY FOR DEVELOPMENT AND
GROWTH: THE ROLE OF NATURAL RESOURCES
(CRUDE OIL)



Forestry and logging remained the largest activity
in the agricultural sector in 2014, it contributed
16.5% to agriculture’s total contribution to GDP in
2014.
In 2013 and 2014, crude oil production and its
related activities recorded the highest growths of
18.0% and 18.2% respectively in the industrial
sector.
Financial intermediation was the largest activity in
the services sector in 2014, it accounted for 20.7%
of the services sector’s contribution to GDP in
2014.
REPOSITIONING GHANA’S ECONOMY FOR DEVELOPMENT AND
GROWTH: THE ROLE OF NATURAL RESOURCES
(CRUDE OIL)
Crude Oil
 Crude oil is one of the valuable natural resources
likely to be discovered in an economy. Its
discovery and ownership within a given
geographic territory minimise the effect of
economic burden on the implied country and its
citizenry.
 This natural endowment was discovered in
commercial quantities decades ago, and led to
the formation of Organisation of the Petroleum
Exporting Countries (OPEC).
REPOSITIONING GHANA’S ECONOMY FOR DEVELOPMENT AND
GROWTH: THE ROLE OF NATURAL RESOURCES
(CRUDE OIL)
Founding Members of OPEC IN 1960
 Islamic Republic of Iran
 Iraq
 Kuwait
 Saudi Arabia
 Venezuela
Later Members of OPEC
Qatar (1961), Indonesia (1962), Libya (1962), the
United Arab Emirates (1967), Algeria (1969), Nigeria
(1971), Ecuador (1973), Gabon (1975) and Angola
(2007) (OPEC, 2016).
REPOSITIONING GHANA’S ECONOMY FOR DEVELOPMENT AND
GROWTH: THE ROLE OF NATURAL RESOURCES
(CRUDE OIL)
OPEC Membership (Exit and re-entry)
 Ecuador: Suspended her membership from
December 1992 to October 2007.
 Indonesia: Suspended her membership in
January 2009 and rejoined in January 2016
 Gabon: Terminated her membership in January
1995 and reactivated in July 2016.
 Associate Members: These are nations that do
not qualify for full membership, but under the
statutes of OPEC are admitted under such special
conditions as may be prescribed by the Conference
REPOSITIONING GHANA’S ECONOMY FOR DEVELOPMENT AND
GROWTH: THE ROLE OF NATURAL RESOURCES
(CRUDE OIL)
Note:

Currently, OPEC has fourteen (14) official members

Though Ghana, La Cote d’Ivoire and other
African countries produce crude oil in commercial
quantities, they are yet to become official members
of OPEC.
Although the afore-mentioned countries are not yet
official members of OPEC, they are believed to be

flying on the economic price wings of OPEC

More crude oil discovery in new economic
territories means more crude oil supply into
the oil market, vice versa.
REPOSITIONING GHANA’S ECONOMY FOR DEVELOPMENT AND
GROWTH: THE ROLE OF NATURAL RESOURCES
(CRUDE OIL)
Brent Crude Oil Price Projections 2010-2040
(Indexed to 2011 Dollars Per Barrel)
Year Reference Low Oil Price High Oil Price
2010
81
81
81
2015
96
79
134
2020
106
69
155
2025
117
70
173
2030
130
72
192
2035
145
73
213
2040
163
75
237
Source: US Energy Information Administration
REPOSITIONING GHANA’S ECONOMY FOR DEVELOPMENT AND
GROWTH: THE ROLE OF NATURAL RESOURCES
(CRUDE OIL)
Actual Brent Crude Oil Prices (2008-2016)
REPOSITIONING GHANA’S ECONOMY FOR DEVELOPMENT AND
GROWTH: THE ROLE OF NATURAL RESOURCES
(CRUDE OIL)
Average Historical Crude Oil Price Per Barrel In US Dollars
Year
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
Average Price Per Barrel
$ 69.04
$ 94.10
$ 60.86
$ 77.38
$107.46
$109.45
$105.87
$ 96.29
$ 49.49
$ 36.13
Source: Statistica.com
REPOSITIONING GHANA’S ECONOMY FOR DEVELOPMENT AND
GROWTH: THE ROLE OF NATURAL RESOURCES
(CRUDE OIL)
Average Historical Crude Oil Price Per Barrel In
US Dollars Cont’d
 Average
crude oil price per barrel over the 10year period is $80.61
 Fall
in crude oil price per barrel between
December 2014 and July 2016 is (negative) 62.48% (62.4779%)
REPOSITIONING GHANA’S ECONOMY FOR DEVELOPMENT AND
GROWTH: THE ROLE OF NATURAL RESOURCES
(CRUDE OIL)
Oil Finds in Ghana (Ghanaweb.com, 2009)
REPOSITIONING GHANA’S ECONOMY FOR DEVELOPMENT AND
GROWTH: THE ROLE OF NATURAL RESOURCES
(CRUDE OIL)
Crude Oil Exploration Ownership in Ghana
Deep-water Tano Block

Tullow Oil & Gas (Operator) = 49.95%

Kosmos Energy = 18%

Anadarko Petroleum Corporation = 18%

Ghana National Petroleum Corporation = 10%
Sabre Oil & Gas = 4.05%
(Offshore-Technology.com, 2011).

REPOSITIONING GHANA’S ECONOMY FOR DEVELOPMENT AND
GROWTH: THE ROLE OF NATURAL RESOURCES
(CRUDE OIL)
Crude Oil Exploration Ownership in Ghana Cont’d
West Cape Three Points

Kosmos Energy (Operator) = 30.875%

Anadarko Petroleum Corp. = 30.875%

Tullow Oil & Gas = 22.896%

Ghana National Petroleum Corporation = 10%

EO Group = 3.5%
Sabre Oil & Gas = 1.854%
(Offshore-Technology.com, 2011).

REPOSITIONING GHANA’S ECONOMY FOR DEVELOPMENT AND
GROWTH: THE ROLE OF NATURAL RESOURCES
(CRUDE OIL)
Crude Oil Exploration Ownership in Ghana Cont’d
Jubilee Field (Found in both Tano and West Cape
Three Points blocks)

Tullow Oil & Gas (Operator) = 34.705%

Kosmos Energy (technical operator for
development) = 23.491%

Anadarko Petroleum Corp. = 23.491%
REPOSITIONING GHANA’S ECONOMY FOR DEVELOPMENT AND
GROWTH: THE ROLE OF NATURAL RESOURCES
(CRUDE OIL)
Crude Oil Exploration Ownership in Ghana Cont’d
Jubilee Field (Found in both Tano and West Cape
Three Points blocks) Cont’d

Ghana National Petroleum Corporation = 13.75%
◦ 10% carried interest
◦ Potential 3.75% working interest, if application for back-in
right is submitted within 60 days after the start of
production
 Sabre Oil & Gas = 2.813%
 EO Group = 1.75% (Offshore-Technology.com, 2011).
REPOSITIONING GHANA’S ECONOMY FOR DEVELOPMENT AND
GROWTH: THE ROLE OF NATURAL RESOURCES
(CRUDE OIL)
Ghana’s Crude Oil Production (2011 – 2015)
REPOSITIONING GHANA’S ECONOMY FOR DEVELOPMENT AND
GROWTH: THE ROLE OF NATURAL RESOURCES
(CRUDE OIL)
Ghana’s Crude Oil Production (2015)
REPOSITIONING GHANA’S ECONOMY FOR DEVELOPMENT AND
GROWTH: THE ROLE OF NATURAL RESOURCES
(CRUDE OIL)
Current Developments in Some Oil-Driven
Economies
Saudi Arabia:
 Founding member of the organisation of the
Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) in 1960
 Member of the Group of Twenty (G20) nations
 Possesses 16% of the world’s proved oil reserves
 World’s largest exporter of total petroleum liquids
 Has world’s largest crude oil production capacity
(US Energy Information Administration, 2016).
REPOSITIONING GHANA’S ECONOMY FOR DEVELOPMENT AND
GROWTH: THE ROLE OF NATURAL RESOURCES
(CRUDE OIL)
Current Developments in Some Oil-Driven
Economies Cont’d
Saudi Arabia’s Economic Growth Rate
2015 = 3.4%
2016 = 1.9% (Projected)
Saudi Arabia’s Oil Sector Growth Rate
2015 = 3.1%
2016 = 0.9% (Projected)
REPOSITIONING GHANA’S ECONOMY FOR DEVELOPMENT AND
GROWTH: THE ROLE OF NATURAL RESOURCES
(CRUDE OIL)
Current Developments in Some Oil-Driven
Economies Cont’d
Qatar:
 Member of the organisation of the Petroleum
Exporting Countries (OPEC) since 1961
 Non-oil real GDP growth in Qatar is expected to grow
by 9.5% in 2016
 In monetary terms, Qatar’s non-oil GDP in 2016 is
estimated at $80 billion an increase over $66billion
recorded in 2014
 Non-oil sector’s contribution to GDP in 2009 was $33
billion, representing 34% of GDP in that year. This
amount doubled by 2014 to $66 billion.
REPOSITIONING GHANA’S ECONOMY FOR DEVELOPMENT AND
GROWTH: THE ROLE OF NATURAL RESOURCES
(CRUDE OIL)
Current Developments in Some Oil-Driven
Economies Cont’d
Qatar Cont’d:
 Qatar has begun a new phase of economic
diversification – paying strong attention to sectors
other than the crude oil sector.
 Qatar’s novel economic development strategy
considers development of the private sector and
non-oil sectors as key to her economic success.
 Economic pundits affirm the contribution of the
non-oil sector to the composition of Qatar’s total
GDP would witness a significant improvement
through public-private sector partnerships.
REPOSITIONING GHANA’S ECONOMY FOR DEVELOPMENT AND
GROWTH: THE ROLE OF NATURAL RESOURCES
(CRUDE OIL)
Current Developments in Some Oil-Driven
Economies Cont’d
Qatar Cont’d:
Key Economic Indicators
2014 2015e* 2016p** 2017p
Real GDP Growth (%)
4.0
3.7
3.3
3.5
Inflation Rate (%)
3.3
1.7
2.1
2.8
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)
17.1 0.4
-5.0
-1.9
Current Account Balance (% of GDP)23.6 -0.8
-6.9
-3.5
*e = Estimated
**p = Projected
Source: MENA Economic Monitor Report ( 2016)
REPOSITIONING GHANA’S ECONOMY FOR DEVELOPMENT AND
GROWTH: THE ROLE OF NATURAL RESOURCES
(CRUDE OIL)
Current Developments in Some Oil-Driven
Economies Cont’d
United Arab Emirates:
 Member of the organisation of the Petroleum
Exporting Countries (OPEC) since 1967
 Non-oil sector’s contribution to GDP in 2015 was
70%
 Projected contribution of the non-oil sectors to GDP
in the next 10 to 15 years is 80%
 Target in the next 10 to 15 years is to reduce the
contribution of the oil sector to only 20% of overall
GDP.
REPOSITIONING GHANA’S ECONOMY FOR DEVELOPMENT AND
GROWTH: THE ROLE OF NATURAL RESOURCES
(CRUDE OIL)
Current Developments in Some Oil-Driven
Economies Cont’d
United Arab Emirates Cont’d:
 A favoured foreign-investor destination in 2014
 Foreign direct investment (FDI) in 2014 was $100
billion
 In terms of FDI, United Arab Emirates was ranked
number one in the Middle East and Arab
region in 2014.
REPOSITIONING GHANA’S ECONOMY FOR DEVELOPMENT AND
GROWTH: THE ROLE OF NATURAL RESOURCES
(CRUDE OIL)
Current Developments in Some Oil-Driven
Economies Cont’d
United Arab Emirates Cont’d:
Key Economic Indicators
2014 2015e* 2016p** 2017p
Real GDP Growth (%)
4.6 3.4
2.0
2.4
Inflation Rate (%)
2.3 4.1
3.1
3.4
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)
5.0 -4.3
-5.2
-2.1
Current Account Balance (% of GDP)13.7 0.2
-1.7
-0.4
*e = Estimated
**p = Projected
Source: MENA Economic Monitor Report ( 2016)
REPOSITIONING GHANA’S ECONOMY FOR DEVELOPMENT AND
GROWTH: THE ROLE OF NATURAL RESOURCES
(CRUDE OIL)
Saudi Arabia’s projected real GDP growth rates for
2016 and 2017 are 2.2% and 2.6% respectively
(MENA Economic Monitor Report, 2016). Some
financial analysts believe the Saudi government would
increase her domestic oil revenues, on average, by an
additional $18 billion each year, from 2016 to 2035.
 Qatar is expected to record an average real GDP
growth rate of 3.6% between 2016 and 2018 (MENA
Economic Monitor Report, 2016).
 UAE is expected to experience slow economic growth,
averaging 2.5% between 2016 and 2018 (MENA
Economic Monitor Report, 2016).

REPOSITIONING GHANA’S ECONOMY FOR DEVELOPMENT AND
GROWTH: THE ROLE OF NATURAL RESOURCES
(CRUDE OIL)
 Emerging Question: Even traditional oil-
driven economies, including Qatar and UAE have
realised the need to minimise the financial
expectations from the oil sector, how much more
new entrants such as Ghana?
There is a positive relationship between lower
oil prices and slower economic growth in oildriven, and oil-dependent economies (Ghana’s
mid-year supplementary budget, 2016).

REPOSITIONING GHANA’S ECONOMY FOR DEVELOPMENT AND
GROWTH: THE ROLE OF NATURAL RESOURCES
(CRUDE OIL)
Economic Diversification Concept
 Oil-driven economies such as Saudi Arabia, Qatar
and United Arab Emirates have taught it prudent and
necessary to strategically focus their attention on
economic diversification.
 The oil-driven economies mentioned above believe
over-reliance on crude oil as the engine for growth
of their respective economies might land them in an
economic quagmire.
 These countries are guarding “jealously” against
the “Dutch Disease.”
REPOSITIONING GHANA’S ECONOMY FOR DEVELOPMENT AND
GROWTH: THE ROLE OF NATURAL RESOURCES
(CRUDE OIL)
Economic Diversification Concept Cont’d
The economic diversification concept of the oildriven economies is intended to reduce their level of
reliance on oil revenues as the most significant
contributor to total GDP.
 Ghana must emulate the strategic development
and economic growth examples of the foregoing
countries.

REPOSITIONING GHANA’S ECONOMY FOR DEVELOPMENT AND
GROWTH: THE ROLE OF NATURAL RESOURCES
(CRUDE OIL)
Ghana – The Way Forward


The Government of Ghana must set moderately
ambitious vision, goal, purpose and agenda for each
government department responsible for a sector and
adequately resource the department to perform its
functions effectively.
The government must shy away from “political”
appointments to appointments borne out of academic
and professional competence; governments must
appoint individuals with the requisite academic and
professional wherewithal to effectively harness the
limited state resources at their disposal to the
economic advantage of the entire nation.
REPOSITIONING GHANA’S ECONOMY FOR DEVELOPMENT AND
GROWTH: THE ROLE OF NATURAL RESOURCES
(CRUDE OIL)
Ghana – The Way Forward Cont’d
 Non-oil and private sectors in Ghana must be
given the needed attention to become the most
important drivers of the Ghanaian economy.
 Ghana’s novel economic development strategy
must be focused essentially on economic
diversification of various sectors that form the
nucleus of non-oil GDP.
 Ghana government’s projections on revenue from
crude oil should not be as high as witnessed in the
presentation of the 2016 Budget.
REPOSITIONING GHANA’S ECONOMY FOR DEVELOPMENT AND
GROWTH: THE ROLE OF NATURAL RESOURCES
(CRUDE OIL)
Ghana – The Way Forward Cont’d
 Even if prospects for the crude oil market are
relatively high, government’s projections on
revenue mobilisation from the sub-sector should
be controllably low.
 It is better to end the year with an evenly-stated
or under-stated revenue variance than to
conclude with an over-stated revenue variance.
 Government’s reforms in subsidies should help
increase government’s revenues and to overcome
any revenue losses likely to be incurred in the
crude oil sector through lower price per barrel.
REPOSITIONING GHANA’S ECONOMY FOR DEVELOPMENT AND
GROWTH: THE ROLE OF NATURAL RESOURCES
(CRUDE OIL)
Ghana – The Way Forward Cont’d

Proceeds from sale of crude oil should be
treated as an “addendum” or “unexpected”
addition to the stream of government inflows
over a considerable number of years. This way,
any fluctuations in derived revenue from crude
oil production would not have a significant
negative effect on government’s estimated
budget and actual expenditure.
REPOSITIONING GHANA’S ECONOMY FOR DEVELOPMENT AND
GROWTH: THE ROLE OF NATURAL RESOURCES
(CRUDE OIL)
Ghana – The Way Forward Cont’d
 Already commenced public sector infrastructural
development projects must be accelerated;
provision of new infrastructure in strategic areas of
the economy must be initiated to encourage and
enhance private sector investment and participation
in Ghana’s socio-economic development.
 Parliament should be encouraged and impressed
upon to expedite action on the passage of the
Ghana Export and Import (EXIM) Bill to
advance the cause of transforming Ghana from an
import-led to export-led economy.
THE END
THANK YOU
REPOSITIONING GHANA’S ECONOMY FOR DEVELOPMENT AND
GROWTH: THE ROLE OF NATURAL RESOURCES
(CRUDE OIL)
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REPOSITIONING GHANA’S ECONOMY FOR DEVELOPMENT AND
GROWTH: THE ROLE OF NATURAL RESOURCES
(CRUDE OIL)
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REPOSITIONING GHANA’S ECONOMY FOR DEVELOPMENT AND
GROWTH: THE ROLE OF NATURAL RESOURCES
(CRUDE OIL)
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REPOSITIONING GHANA’S ECONOMY FOR DEVELOPMENT AND
GROWTH: THE ROLE OF NATURAL RESOURCES
(CRUDE OIL)
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A-MEM-eng.pdf
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REPOSITIONING GHANA’S ECONOMY FOR DEVELOPMENT AND
GROWTH: THE ROLE OF NATURAL RESOURCES
(CRUDE OIL)
Bibliography Cont’d
Osei-Bonsu, D. (2011). A concise history of oil and gas exploration
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Rahman, F. (2015). UAE aims to increase contribution of non-oil
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http://gulfnews.com/business/economy/uae-aims-toincrease-contribution-of-non-oil-gdp-to-80-1.1598442
Statista.com. (2016). Average annual OPEC crude oil price from
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REPOSITIONING GHANA’S ECONOMY FOR DEVELOPMENT AND
GROWTH: THE ROLE OF NATURAL RESOURCES
(CRUDE OIL)
Bibliography Cont’d
Trading Economics.com. (2016). Ghana crude oil production: 1995
to 2015. Retrieved from
http://www.tradingeconomics.com/ghana/crude-oilproduction
US Energy Information Administration. (2016). International energy
statistics. Retrieved from
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