Transcript The American Presidential Election 2012x (7.14 MiB

The American Presidential
Election 2012
Three Scenarios
Dr. Elaine Kamarck
Istanbul
June 5, 2012
The race today is dead even…
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With a slight edge to Obama
Gallup Obama 46% to Romney 46%
Rasmussen Obama 44% to Romney 47%
Real Clear Politics Average of many polls:
Obama 47% to Romney 45.4%
Obama Job Approval
47.3% approve
48.7% disapprove
(as of June 3 RCP average)
3 Scenarios?
 Only the economic fundamentals matter. Romney
wins and the Senate goes Republican
 The campaign and the candidates matter. Obama is
more trusted and more likeable. Obama wins and the
Senate remains in Democratic control.
 Everything matters. Obama wins narrowly… GOP
takes Senate and House.
Mitt Romney’s
Argument
Obama’s a nice guy but he has failed
Slowing GDP growth
Plunging consumer confidence
Increasing unemployment claims
Slowing job growth
A very slow recovery: Real GDP
relative to end of recession
A very slow recovery: Consumer
Confidence
A very slow recovery: Housing Prices
Housing Prices
Barack Obama’s
argument
Don’t give the White House back to
the party that made the mess in the
first place
Job creation since 2009
Recovery in manufacturing
Recovery in the auto industry
More voters blame
George Bush for the
bad economy than
Obama
47% of voters blamed Bush more than
Obama, 21% blamed them equally,
and 32% blamed Obama more than
Bush.
Obama saved the
American auto industry
And over one million jobs
What could make the difference?
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Comfort with the candidate
Who will vote
The debates
The destruction of Mitt Romney as a plausible
alternative
 A worsening economy
The Campaign & the Candidates
Matter
 “Obama’s got this Reagan thing going, the 1983, 1984
dynamic — he’s personally popular even though
people aren’t personally enthralled with his policies or
performance,” said Frank Luntz, a veteran Republican
pollster who thinks Romney’s lack of personal appeal
guarantees a deadlocked race until the end.
The story of 2008 was young people
– the story of 2010 was old people.
Voter Preferences by Age - Gallup
Who votes?
Obama is counting on repeating
an unprecedented performance
with non-white voters
Who votes?
Romney has to gain an
overwhelming number of white
voters
President Jimmy Carter
debates
Governor Ronald
Reagan
The 1980 election turned in the last
week of the campaign.
In 2004 the Bush
Campaign launched a
brutal attack on John
Kerry’s character…
The “swift boat” ads called into
question his war record.
And finally…
A second economic downturn